Aiming for £121 to have my first shot at £5.50 which is £38.25 away but counting in next months C4P it's £23.25 so essentially 9 straights wins lol, but seriously it's all about finsishing this month in profit first then see where I stand, as these things can be so swingy I could easily win 6 in a row tonight but now I've said that I'm probably doomed.....
so when does variance just become plain bad luck 11 losses in a row blinds 150/300 stack size 1700 99 in the BB min raise UTG i shove he calls pocket kings. should i of folded? 5 handed at this late stage
Jee whiz, really annoying sesh, again one where everytime I was about properly to get going and power on I lost a game, winning one but jesus a frustarting one.
1st exit in clinic. 2nd the start of the run bad, guy gets down to 85 chips but gets back to level stack with me and calls my BvB AI w/K4 w/4bbs at 200/400, I had Q6, so sick after almost killing him, sigh. 3rd in clinic. Final just about finished me off, QQ 10bbs at 75/150 call AI he has AK obvz lol flop QJ3 he wins by river...
Profit sesh so can't complain but just dying for one of these edges to go my...
Short session this morning, 6 games going 5-1 to me taking me to my peak once again.
Only exit AKs w/18bbs at 50/100, same size stack makes it 3x, I snap shove he snap calls w/77, I miss.
Gotta love these games you play 20 odd and grind a 6 quid profit and then play 6 for £10 profit lol. Anyway, at the same stage I was a few days ago (high 90's), that time I bombed down to 70 odd this time I hope it goes the other way, 2 big profit sesh's still alude me....
hi wenelinho you need to sign up for the c4 points have you done that yet?
you can check by going to "my account"(as Dudeskin said) if you have no points in the box(at the bottom of the page) then you haven,t signed up 4 it yet
if you do need to
go to my sky poker poker promotions go to cash for points box
so when does variance just become plain bad luck 11 losses in a row blinds 150/300 stack size 1700 99 in the BB min raise UTG i shove he calls pocket kings. should i of folded? 5 handed at this late stage what u guys think Posted by wenelinho
Variance is basically just another word poker players use for luck, whether it be good or bad.
Sometimes you will shove 99, get called by JJ, now in this situation you have a 20% of winning so you will win 1 out of 5 times. But sometimes this will happen 5 times in a night and you'll win 3 of them, other times it could happen 10 times and you win 0. Long term if it happens 1 million times, it will even out.
The only thing to be weary of is that sometimes bad players say 'oh it's no big deal I'm losing, it's just negative variance' when actually it's more likely it's just bad play. So the best thing is to post some of your hands in the clinic and if peope keep saying 'you played it fine, unlucky' then it's probably variance. On the other hand, if people keep correcting mistakes you're making, take them on board because it's probably bad play.
Another tilt inducing session, liturally everytime I won I lost WLWLWL lol so horrible, anyway 11 games go 6-5 against me, could have been worse tbh.
1st exit 3bb shove at 300/600 w/73, middle stack makes loose call (as in I snap fold lol) w/A9 and holds. 2nd 7bb shove at 150/300 w/A3 snapped by safe stack 10bb w/AJ, they're never folding but what can u do. 3rd a terribad one 6bbs at 150/300 Q3, guy limps Btn Q high flop goes chk-chk, 8 turn I shove as he looks super weak he has QJ, run worse....,4th in clinic. Same for 5th. 6th once again fall a cropper to the awful L/C station play by safe stacks, 50/100 in SB w/15bbs and shorty w/AJ, guy limps I shove he snaps w/88 lol.
Another bad session after a great one, what I wouldn't give for two goodies in a row...
Another tilt inducing session, liturally everytime I won I lost WLWLWL lol so horrible, anyway 11 games go 6-5 against me, could have been worse tbh. 1st exit 3bb shove at 300/600 w/73, middle stack makes loose call (as in I snap fold lol) w/A9 and holds. 2nd 7bb shove at 150/300 w/A3 snapped by safe stack 10bb w/AJ, they're never folding but what can u do. 3rd a terribad one 6bbs at 150/300 Q3, guy limps Btn Q high flop goes chk-chk, 8 turn I shove as he looks super weak he has QJ, run worse....,4th in clinic. Same for 5th. 6th once again fall a cropper to the awful L/C station play by safe stacks, 50/100 in SB w/15bbs and shorty w/AJ, guy limps I shove he snaps w/88 lol. Another bad session after a great one, what I wouldn't give for two goodies in a row... BR - £92.35 Total Played - 105 Won - 61 Lost - 44 C4P - 808 Posted by Dudeskin8
I hate them ones, where it's WLWLWLWL cos the longer it keeps going on, the more it gets to a point where you win 2 in a row, and you're STILL down! It can be horrible the rake on these if you go through a patch of winning about 50%
Well current goal is £106 by the end of the month which will let me have my two shots at £5.50 (106 + 15 = 121 = 22 * 5.50) in January and then if that goes to plan (I run good early) I keep going and try and get to £242 (22 * 11) or at least stable at £5.50 so £150-200 ish.
Overall though it took me 184 games to get from £2.25 to £3.30 and I'm just over 105 at £3.30 now so plenty of time to go, if I don't get to the goal by say 200 I might give up but really depends as these blighters are so swondy it's untrue.
The cash percentage I always aim for is 60% but right now it's just over 58% and that has given decent profit over 100 odd games so maintaining that or just up to 59% would do over 200 and get me to where I need, these things really are all about volume.
Much deeper 11 game sesh and a pivotal one taking me over the £100 mark and some, 8-3 to me.
1st exit super annoying, short stack L/C's AI w/K4 against my AQ then next hand w/3bbs A2 beat by 88, the ol one-two. 2nd at 200/400 1800 shove UTG not happy about it but only better calls oh and K10, sigh. 3rd yet anither poor call by big stack w/A8 v my J9 no catch up.
Well chuffed to finally get up to £100 and a little foot-hold in there aswell, amazingly just 4 str8 wins from having a pop at £5.50 now which would be crazy. Also currently running at 60% cash rate which is above my personal goal.
Much deeper 11 game sesh and a pivotal one taking me over the £100 mark and some, 8-3 to me. 1st exit super annoying, short stack L/C's AI w/K4 against my AQ then next hand w/3bbs A2 beat by 88, the ol one-two. 2nd at 200/400 1800 shove UTG not happy about it but only better calls oh and K10, sigh. 3rd yet anither poor call by big stack w/A8 v my J9 no catch up. Well chuffed to finally get up to £100 and a little foot-hold in there aswell, amazingly just 4 str8 wins from having a pop at £5.50 now which would be crazy. Also currently running at 60% cash rate which is above my personal goal. BR - £110.35 Total Played - 125 Won - 75 Lost - 50 C4P - 873 Posted by Dudeskin8
Another wee session before the Santa's Grotto madness starts at 4pm and amazingly 4 games yet again go all to me, looks like the Toon took my share of run bad last night lol
Think it's something like 9 wins in a row now which obviously helps but overall just feel like I'm playing well also. Great news now is forget waiting till January I can have my first shot at £5.50 today, really hope I can take this run into those and get a foot-hold and stay there !
Just wanted to dip my toe in the water this evening so no major grinding, have to admit the first couple of games were a little edgy as suddenly realised I was staking £5.50 in a bloody DYM lol, but luckily first 4 went nicely 3-1 in my favour for a little profit.
Only exit a K2 shove 5bs at 150/300, safe 9bb stack makes poor call w/KQ and holds.
One big advantage with the £5.50's is the added points per game so since last post I only need to actually play another 20 to reach 1000 (presuming I don't run bad and return to £3.30......) and if I manage that I'll take a break and start again in Janauary.
Right now I have to play 18 more so winning 10/18 leaves me where I am and I'd defo take that and obvz for every one above that I add a tenner and also lose a tenner for every one below it but lets be glass-half-full
Slightly longer 6 game sesh going again to me, 4-2.
1s exit 6bb shove BvB w/A10 against 2000 stack, he makes pretty loose call w/AJ imo and holds. 2nd super sick but due I guess, AA MR UTG at 100/200 w/1745 praying for call/shove, BB shoves I snap he has 33 and hits, sigh.
First 10 games winning 70% is nice but sample size is tiny, aim is still just to at least break even from when I started at £126.55 but obvz any profit over that would be swell. 12 more to play so I'd take 6-6 from them and be very content.
Well had a feeling something wasn't right and tonight the balance was nicely restored, 9 games at £5.50 going 7-2 against me ouch, 2 late £3.30 ones go 2-0 to me after I dropped down.
1st exit a rare bad beat for the night, AJ shove w/9bbs at 100/200 called by A9. 2nd autp btn shove w/7bbs at 100/200, SB finds AA. 3rd nice cooler, 3x raise w/QQ at 50/100 w/1800 guy shoves I call he has KK sigh. 4th, SB big stack limps on my BB I shove w/7bbs at 100/200 as know he has nout he call w/Q9 against my Q3 lol. 5th once again get it in as a dog BvB 1030 vs A10. 6th once again more coolerage KJ BvB he snaps w/AA. Final 43o shove UTG snapped by big stack w/55...
Tough session but felt it coming and more proof of the swongyness of these beasts. 3 more games tomoz at £3.30 then have break till January.
Comments
funny old game ,aint it
you need to sign up for the c4 points
have you done that yet?
you can check by going to "my account"(as Dudeskin said)
if you have no points in the box(at the bottom of the page)
then you haven,t signed up 4 it yet
if you do need to
go to my sky poker
poker promotions
go to cash for points box
my account
free bets
enter "points" in the code box
job done
and u r in !
Sometimes you will shove 99, get called by JJ, now in this situation you have a 20% of winning so you will win 1 out of 5 times. But sometimes this will happen 5 times in a night and you'll win 3 of them, other times it could happen 10 times and you win 0. Long term if it happens 1 million times, it will even out.
The only thing to be weary of is that sometimes bad players say 'oh it's no big deal I'm losing, it's just negative variance' when actually it's more likely it's just bad play. So the best thing is to post some of your hands in the clinic and if peope keep saying 'you played it fine, unlucky' then it's probably variance. On the other hand, if people keep correcting mistakes you're making, take them on board because it's probably bad play.
i was having another nite off .....lol
you ,ll get there
you know the score,"be patient"