River action?

RyanC7

The opponent here is a reg at 50nl. Much of his game (from my history with him) is preflop. He rarely calls, 3bets and 4bets alot and rarely plays oop. From the limited info I have on him, he seems good.

On the flop I decided to check raise the KK2 board as from his perspective there are a few Kings in my preflop calling range. Although the sizing is poor (should be 7-8ish I guess). On the turn what do you think of his re raise? I thought he never has AK here he raises flop everytime? I also think he raises flop with k10-kq??? He could also be flatting with 2s to keep bluffs in ? He could also have AA? Do you agree with these thoughts? I decided to flat his raise on the turn also to keep his bluffs in as when he reps that turn hes going to be betting the river regardless right? He is a very aggressive player so I thought he was capable of bluffing but when this river card drops it puts me in a tricky situation. He either has AA 22 K10-q or AIR. More realistically AA, 22 or air???? Thoughts ? What do you do on this river??

Hand History #623010208 (16:47 16/02/2013)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
RyanC7	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£75.80
britrock	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£64.66
	Your hole cards	Q J
hhamza162	Fold
nugget1000	Call		£0.50	£1.25	£24.46
X	Raise		£1.50	£2.75	£67.35
RyanC7	Call		£1.25	£4.00	£74.55
britrock	Fold
nugget1000	Call		£1.00	£5.00	£23.46
Flop
		K K 2
RyanC7	Check
nugget1000	Check
X	Bet		£2.00	£7.00	£65.35
RyanC7	Raise		£5.50	£12.50	£69.05
nugget1000	Fold
X	Call		£3.50	£16.00	£61.85
Turn
		A
RyanC7	Bet		£8.00	£24.00	£61.05
X	Raise		£22.00	£46.00	£39.85
RyanC7	Call		£14.00	£60.00	£47.05
River
		2
RyanC7	Check
X	All-in		£39.85	£99.85	£0.00
????

RyanC7

feedback here was decent to be fair

mewillows

In Response to Re: River action?:

feedback here was decent to be fair
Posted by RyanC7

haha

Im guessing you checked the river to induce?  Otherwise id bet the river small to see if they come over the top. Cant put them on AK, 22 due to post flop raise.  Can only be concerned about AA IMO but then why jam the river after you check?

Id call for sure

Edit: my bad I thought he raised you post flop.  

unknown_username

uhh i think KA / pocket 2's or a bluff not sure which one though fits in with pocket 2's / bluff more the way he played it but this seems a bit far fetched

im prob calling this

RyanC7

I just wondered if my logic of him never having a King was correct? Why would he flat flop then raise turn once flush drops with any K 

unknown_username

In Response to Re: River action?:

I just wondered if my logic of him never having a King was correct? Why would he flat flop then raise turn once flush drops with any K 
Posted by RyanC7

yeah this is why it looks like a bluff, and this kind of rules out pocket 2's unless hes putting you on the flush which explains why hes re raising with pocket 2's or AK 

the bluff is he puts you on a King and thinks he can steal the pot, by resembling the flush, but when you check the river it kind of flips your hand over saying you've got a flush and want a showdown so he might opf shipped it sensing weakness

i think hes bluffing

thejudge10

Ive been thinking about this hand now for 10 mins,no i dont think he has a king unless its kk,so in my opion think he has 22 poss kk.He seems so comfortable and confident on the flop and turn.It seems on the flop he flats your raise as i think he wanys to keep you in.

On the turn he raises hoping you have hit the flush.

You really are stuck between a rock and a hard stone,if he,s bluffing he,s played it so well.

If he only had a king,wouldn,t he try to close the pot down on the flop,with a flush poss,or was he gonna go into call mode if he didnt hit the house.

I,D probaly call the all in,and close my eyes.

22

BorinLoner

Why does everyone think he would 3-bet the flop with a decent King? Why does his play rule out AK?

If you'd flopped top-trips on a KK2 board, are you really going to try to push out all of your opponent's bluffs by 3-betting the flop? Do you really just hope that you've coolered someone holding the case King?

If I have AK on this flop and I'm check-raised, I'm probably flatting against 90% of opponents. Why would I want to chase away the value? Are we so terrified of flush draws?

BorinLoner

I'm making his range on the river AK, KK, 22, AA and bluffs including possibly Ax that he's now turning into a bluff. Weaker flushes than ours are unlikely to raise the turn or bet the river.

I don't play NL50 but I can think of only two regs at that level whom I would even consider calling against. You have to go with your reads on your opponent. Most aren't capable of bluffing in this spot.

By the way, even if I did think my opponent was capable of bluffing here, I'd have to also think that they believed my check on the river could never be a King and they are very confident I'm capable of folding a flush. It's a very unlikely bluff and I'm not sure it would be a good call even if you caught him this time because he has to be bluffing nearly 30% of the time for the call to be break even.

bearlyther

In Response to Re: River action?:

Why does everyone think he would 3-bet the flop with a decent King? Why does his play rule out AK? If you'd flopped top-trips on a KK2 board, are you really going to try to push out all of your opponent's bluffs by 3-betting the flop? Do you really just hope that you've coolered someone holding the case King? If I have AK on this flop and I'm check-raised, I'm probably flatting against 90% of opponents. Why would I want to chase away the value? Are we so terrified of flush draws?
Posted by BorinLoner

+1 to this

RyanC7

In Response to Re: River action?:

I'm making his range on the river AK, KK, 22, AA and bluffs including possibly Ax that he's now turning into a bluff. Weaker flushes than ours are unlikely to raise the turn or bet the river. I don't play NL50 but I can think of only two regs at that level whom I would even consider calling against. You have to go with your reads on your opponent. Most aren't capable of bluffing in this spot. By the way, even if I did think my opponent was capable of bluffing here, I'd have to also think that they believed my check on the river could never be a King and they are very confident I'm capable of folding a flush. It's a very unlikely bluff and I'm not sure it would be a good call even if you caught him this time because he has to be bluffing nearly 30% of the time for the call to be break even.
Posted by BorinLoner

Thanks for your post. The only reason I didnt think he had AK is because this type of "reg" constantly raises for value. When hes 3betting/4betting constantly his level aggression across the 8 tables hes playing is consistent. I dont think he flats flop with AK. Ax is also completely out of his range? Why would he re raise the turn with a hand like Aq when he can just flat, keep bluffs in and make a decision  on the river as he has showdown value. If it has to be correct at least 30% of the time, do you think that he shows up with Ak, KK, 22 and AA > 69% of the time then ?