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Folding Aces?
Satelite to 10k bh tonight, blinds 500/1000, i have 13k, raiser has 17k, short stack has 1,800. The big stack was folding quite alot of hands so when he raised this big i presumed he would of called an all in. 1st and 2nd gained entry to tournement, and 3rd got some cash. Do i just fold and hope the shorty gets eliminated next few hands?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancejenars Small blind 500.00 500.00 1840.00 murray69 Big blind 1000.00 1500.00 13900.00 Your hole cards A A 56pomp Raise 4000.00 5500.00 13760.00 jenars Fold murray69
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancejenars Small blind 500.00 500.00 1840.00 murray69 Big blind 1000.00 1500.00 13900.00 Your hole cards A A 56pomp Raise 4000.00 5500.00 13760.00 jenars Fold murray69
Comments
If we assume that we're virtually 100% to get a seat if we call and win (which we virtually are). If we call, we're gonna win aruond 80% of the time.
Then the question becomes, if we fold, will we cash more than 80% of the time.... I don't know the answer, just saying lol.
No need to get in a willy swinging contest with the other big stack.
your prize pool equity if you fold is 0.4518, the large stack is 0.4712 and the mini stack 0.07
if you raise AI and he folds the ratios are essentially reversed, you now have 0.47 eq
if he calls however your equity =(0.5 x 0.83 ish)=0.415, all the equity goes the tiny stack.
The realility is the big stack has made a huge mistake by raising less than AI, and should fold to your AI even if he knew you had TT and he had AA (0.5 x 0.8)=0.4, whereas if he folds his Ev is 0.45.
but this is low stakes and people play badly, the answer lies with your opinion of your villain-if hes a muppet fold, if hes good (rare) RR all in.
as played, if mini stack calls, call, otherwise fold
Everyone is different though :P
Thanks for the replies, it was a £7.20 direct to tonights £33 game. There was 3 of us left, i think 3rd got around £18 but i wanted the seat. Anyway i folded.
Then next hand the shorty doubled up, and then shoved on me the hand after i think, i had 10 10 and called and he had 5 5. He flopped a set but i turned a flush and won, but if i would of lost that hand i would of been in 3rd place. So it made me think that maybe i should shove with the Aces, but at the time i folded them the fold seemed the correct play. Was just intersted to see what other people thought. Thanks
P.S still dont know what ill do with them next time lol
2 seats + cash and 3 players left.
Though I haven't a clue what the calc should be - would be interested to see if someone with more knowledge can factor that in.
if sb calls then just flat
oppo behind should just check it down
if oppo shoves behind then sigh fold and curse them if they lose
I personally go over the top then wince when they call with AA and make a flush!
3 left, so 2 seats and whoever goes out next gets the cash.
Christ, as Lambert has stated several times, and myself. There are 3 players left, 2 get seats! And the short stack has 1.8bb's.
Im glad this got many replies, and theres alot of dispute over what the correct play is, im still in the middle, i still dont know what to do lol
if ss calls then just call but fold to a shove from behind
----
done ICM calc and it's a fold after sb folds -
even if oppo calls your shove with:
66+,ATs+,AJo+
If we ship, get called and win we should get a seat vritually 100% of the time.
With that in mind, if we ship I still think the big stack should/will fold a fair amount of the time given how short the other guy is. So when we get called we're gonna be winning at least 80%+ of the time, with the amount of folds we get, I'd estimate we're gonna get knocked out in this hand probably <5% of the time.
Can we really be sure we will cash 95% of the time if we fold?
All joking aside I think I'm going with it. you're never going to get a better hand (presumably if you were first to act you would have shoved?) and you know he can't have you dominated, - so yeah you could get unlucky and go out, but odds are in your favour & we're playing an odds based game, so that has to be a determining factor. -
as someone else mentioned, - the £18 cash you'd get is half of the buy in anyway, so if you do luck out, then you're over half way to your destination (not ideal I grant you, but better than nowt).
Also I think I'd put the villain on a medium-ish hand at best as I think He'd shove with anything decent (including small-mid pairs?) - perhaps that is an indication of their level of competence,
so IMO range includes Ace-X (in which case you're way ahead) or two paint cards even as far as higher suited connectors) - either way, they're miles behind to Aces and if you're not going to take a risk now & again...,
Fortune favours the bold!
That said, you're probably best not listening to a word I'm saying.
Glad you won in the end anyway, - even if you did get a nesty sweat. - I hope you go on to do well tonight mate.