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30NL - 3 Barrel Bluff
Just looking for thoughts on whether this is a good spot to 3 barrel really.
Like in my experience, people don't generally limp/call UTG with raggy Ax hands or any Ax hand (obv some people will l/c anything), so this is what gave me the confidence to barrel off.
Do you think the way it's played it's a profitable 3rd barrel.
FWIW, villian is a serial limp/caller, occasionally gets fruity postflop and raises with complete air, but other times will just call, call, fold. Very loose, mostly passive.
Like in my experience, people don't generally limp/call UTG with raggy Ax hands or any Ax hand (obv some people will l/c anything), so this is what gave me the confidence to barrel off.
Do you think the way it's played it's a profitable 3rd barrel.
FWIW, villian is a serial limp/caller, occasionally gets fruity postflop and raises with complete air, but other times will just call, call, fold. Very loose, mostly passive.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| craigy60 | Small blind | £0.15 | £0.15 | £31.81 | |
| lecksville | Big blind | £0.30 | £0.45 | £29.70 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| X | Call | £0.30 | £0.75 | £36.72 | |
| LEE001 | Fold | ||||
| Lambert180 | Raise | £1.20 | £1.95 | £33.88 | |
| bigrick91 | Fold | ||||
| craigy60 | Call | £1.05 | £3.00 | £30.76 | |
| lecksville | Fold | ||||
| X | Call | £0.90 | £3.90 | £35.82 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| craigy60 | Check | ||||
| X | Check | ||||
| Lambert180 | Bet | £2.40 | £6.30 | £31.48 | |
| craigy60 | Fold | ||||
| X | Call | £2.40 | £8.70 | £33.42 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| X | Check | ||||
| Lambert180 | Bet | £4.10 | £12.80 | £27.38 | |
| X | Call | £4.10 | £16.90 | £29.32 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| X | Check | ||||
| Lambert180 | Bet | £9.50 | £26.40 | £17.88 | |
| X | Fold | ||||
| Lambert180 | Muck | ||||
| Lambert180 | Win | £16.05 | £33.93 | ||
| Lambert180 | Return | £9.50 | £0.85 | £43.43 | |
Comments
When I isolate the limper (or attempt to), I'm repping big hands, A-high boards smash that range and I'm gonna be c-betting ALOT of them. I'd c-bet here 100% with AK so it would become pretty easy to read if I c-bet when I hit an A and c/f when I don't. Also I don't necessarily have to just give up, people can call me on this dry a flop with 77+, maybe even 44 and 55 easily but might be reluctant to call a 2nd barrel depending on the turn card.
I don't expect him to ever have Ax, cos imo it isn't in most people's limp/call UTG range and I think he folds everything that isn't Ax with the exception of sets (that became houses). I know he will snap me off with any Ax and if he does so be it, but I don't think it's pointless or unnecessary, I'm not gonna be just a drone who waits for the nuts and bets. If I get snapped off, then people on the table see I will 3b barrel with air and it will almost certainly pay off later, and I get notes on villian.
I'd imagine he has a PP, something like 77 probably. It's also possible he could have like 45 and just played the draw passively then c/f a missed river.
Bet you I've missed something now I've had to retype it.
It's Pbrains favourite line innit, "the raise is +ev pre but re-assess on the flop and don't dig a hole"
He makes it sound more impressive than that tho.
They're both full of Ax hands and it's going to take 3 bets to get them off it. Even then they prob don't fold.
Wouldn't mind it if we had some equity. I just give up otf or bet once and shut down.
I think the flop is a very good one to c-bet. You can't be called by draws because there aren't any (aside from 45) and the chances of your opponents having a two-pair hand or some random 3 or 6 are very slim. When we're called we should think it's likely to only be by an Ace. You might think that underpairs are going to call here but I think they're more likely to just fold. They've limp-called or called OOP to go 3-way to a flop, an Ace has hit and someone's betting. Sometimes you will be called by lower pocket pairs, most of the time it's just an Ace.
The turn is not a good card to bet because it's obviously not changed anything. I think I'd just give up at this point unless I had good reason to think that either my opponent would i) station the flop with KQ, or some random pair or ii) could fold a rag Ace if I bet three streets. Even then, hoping someone who's limp-called pre-flop with a raggy ace then folds trips is... extremely optimistic. lol
Having bet the turn I think we should probably bet the river when it's checked to us, mainly because our rationale for betting the turn has to have been as I've suggested above and we're committed to that plan. We have to think that our opponent is weak enough to fold after calling the turn but isn't so bad that they're just going to station us. (I say this beause I like consistent plans, not because I think the plan here is a good one)
I don't like the bluff because the turn and river don't really change anything and our opponent shouldn't be in the hand after the flop betting without an Ace. Against some opponents this works because they don't maintain a coherent plan for the hand and just see you betting three streets - They are blown off by pure aggression. Decent players calling flop and turn won't fold the river, though, especially for this amount unless they have some weird missed draw.
Dunno about the bolded bit, maybe. I'm just not v optimistic about getting this through with 1 bet.
If they're folding they're folding though, I guess the 1 thing I can add that I'm kinda sure of is that the cbet is too big. 1/2 pot on these boards is enough and it makes BL's bolded bit more likely to be true as it doesn't need to work as often etc.
HU Id obv agree it's a 'slam dunk cbet' (wiii) fwiw.