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Odds on Turn/River
Hey, I normally work out the odds of the turn as 4.4 x by the outs I think I have and 2.2 on the river... So say i'm heads up and holding K5 hearts and the flop comes Ah 6H and 9d. I put my opponent on an ace so I have 9 cards to hit, so I'm roughly 40% to hit my card. If theres 80 in the pot and my opponent bets 80 im paying 33% of the pot.
But is this only right if i intend to see the river card and should I work out the turn card percentage as x 2.2%?
As if I miss the turn, which is likely, I must assume that my opponent will raise the pot again. I'd have to put in 240 to see the river. After the flop I would have put 320 into a 720 (around 42%)pot to hope for a card that was only 40%.
Should I just take each card after the flop as x2.2?
Hopefully someone understands what I mean, didn't make much sense to myself when I read it back
But is this only right if i intend to see the river card and should I work out the turn card percentage as x 2.2%?
As if I miss the turn, which is likely, I must assume that my opponent will raise the pot again. I'd have to put in 240 to see the river. After the flop I would have put 320 into a 720 (around 42%)pot to hope for a card that was only 40%.
Should I just take each card after the flop as x2.2?
Hopefully someone understands what I mean, didn't make much sense to myself when I read it back
Comments
When the turn card arrives the odds will have changed and so you need to re-evaluate depending on what card turns up. You also need to be wary of scare cards. For example if the 9h comes in giving you the nut flush you must be prepared to accept the fact that you dead in the hand because of the possibilities of houses and better.
So as i said any bet is an offer of odds at that time. So call on the flop and if a blank card comes in and another pot size bet follows you lay the draw down. The problem with chasing draws is not on the flop but on the turn where people just keep calling when not getting the odds and then they are just hoping to get lucky and not playing optimal poker.
The only exception would be where you (or your opponent) is all-in or does not have enough chips left to price you out of the hand after the turn if you do not hit.
A lot of people make the mistake of using 4% (or 4.4%) after the flop when they are actually not getting those odds at all.
Another thing to bear in mind are "implied odds" which is the amount that you might get paid on the river if you hit your hand. A lot of factors make up implied odds, e.g. position, number of people in the pot and your opponent's likelihood of calling if there is a possible flush on board.