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Pot Odds
With pot odds, can we call a potsized bet because we are getting the implied odds if we hit our flush to get paid off?
Example 1, We have the nut flush draw, A 10 of hearts, the flop comes down 2h 7s Qh, we are on the button, blinds are £0.50, £1, The pot is currently £6, with 2 players. Opponent bets £6.
Here we have the nut flush draw, player is solid and we feel he has a strong hand. If oppo bets £1.50 then we are getting the odds to call, 5-1 (£1.50 into a pot of £7.50)
Tho in the above example, we need to call £6 into a pot of £12, which is 3-1, so we are not getting the odds for the call? Given that its prob over 4-1 to hit flush on turn?
We don't want to reraise because opponent is agro, and feel a reraise will result in a shove.
We miss the turn, the pot is now £18. Opponent againt bets pot, so the pot is sitting at £36, with us to act, we are calling £18 into £36 so thats 50/50 on our money, where the chances are less than 4/1. Is this an easy fold or do we have the implied odds to call to win a massive pot?
Example 2 Same as above except we have say 10 j of hearts.
Comments
When we're faced with a pot bet as in your example of needing to call 6 to win 12, those are pot odds of 2:1 not 3:1. We're putting in 1 and there are 2 already in the middle.
If we are drawing only to a flush with nine outs, our odds to hit on the next street are 4:1, so we only need pot odds of 4:1 to break even. Anything better than 4:1 will be profiable, so we don't need as much as 5:1 when 4.1:1 will do.
Implied odds are dependent on i) how much more the effective stack has behind and ii) our assessment of how strong our opponent will be if we hit our hand (or how strong they will feel they are). So i) if one of us only has a small amount back, our implied odds are poor and ii) if we think our opponent locks up if our draw comes in, our implied odds are poor.
The second point is very much a judgement call and will be player dependent. There is no single clear, prescriptive answer anyone can give you.
As to the description of the hand; thinking your opponent is aggressive is not the reason to avoid raising. In fact it's a very good reason to raise with a hand such as one over and a flush draw. Aggressive opponents will bet with hands that they can't call raises with and we have a hand that we want to semi-bluff with. We may be able to make better hands fold and we still have great equity if we don't. Having fold equity makes this raise likely to be more profitable than calling down. Indeed, against aggressive opponents our implied odds for calling are worse because they are less likely to be holding a big hand. So we call down two streets, paying too much in direct odds, only to find that when we hit our flush our opponent doesn't pay us because he had a weak hand. In that situation, although we win the pot, we've been heavily outplayed by our aggressive opponent.
A good reason not to raise is when we think our oppponent is NOT normally aggressive so his aggression indicates genuine strength. In that situation we don't want to raise because we know it's likely that our opponent has a hand he can't fold and we know that against his range we are an underdog. If we think this same opponent can't lay down his big hands if a flush card hits, then we have very good reason to call because we have good implied odds. Our equity is of course dependent on whether our Ace is live, in which case our implied odds would also be better.
There are times when we can just fold these drawing hands. If our opponent is likely to be holding a very strong hand right now and is unlikely to pay us off if we hit our draw, then both our direct odds and implied odds are poor and our hand is an underdog. We should fold our big draw.
Generally I think you need to reassess you rationale for aggressive play and look into your understanding of pot odds a little more. They can be confusing if you're used to working in percentages.
These are things that annoy me slightly because if we're not all talking the same language it can lead to confusion.
Aggressive is opposed to passive. Loose is opposed to tight. Their meanings are not interchangeable.
So 6 into 12 is 2:1, so in this example above that would be a bad call.
Say we have 9 10
The flop comes down 7 8 x
The pot is £10 someone bets into us half pot, so pots £15 for us to call £5 that is 3/1?? There is a mximum of 8 cards we can hit x 2 so we have roughly a 30% chance on turn and river to hit our straight. On the turn this is say 15%, so we can't really afford to make this call?
All these things will affect your decision.
I really think you need to work on your odds.
In the hand above with the open ended.( possibly two overs but we wont count them because we dont know what the X is)
Your 30% chance to hit is roughly 2.25/1 so if you have £5 to win £15 3/1 then you are getting the price to call.
3:1 means we have to call for the value of 1 to win 3 in the middle. Obviously the total of the pot would then be 4.
To work out our percentage odds we need to take the projected total of our bet plus the pot (4) and divide our bet (1) by that number then multiply by 100 to get a percentage. So:
1 / 4 = 0.25
0.25 x 100 = 25%
So obviously we have direct odds of 25% and equity of only around 18%. Calling would be -EV if we think we can't get any more money once we hit. (This of course changes if we can see both turn and river for that amount)
The implied odds mean that if both we and our opponent have money behind and we think we can win more of that money, we don't need the correct direct pot odds for the call to be +EV. If we win more money beyond the value of this call we can effectively add that to the value of the call.
So let's say that we're confident our opponent will pay us another £30 in your example if we hit our hand. Now we can work out our combined odds:
£5 to win £15 + implied £30 means 3(+implied 6):1 or 9:1 for a projected pot of 10.
1 / 10 x 100 = 10%
Now our combined odds are 10% and our equity is 18%. This means our call would be +EV.
Remember though; implied odds are not certain and can't be calculated precisely. They depend on how much money our opponent and we have behind (which we can know for certain) and how much of that he's likely to pay us if we hit (which we can never know for certain). As a result, it's usually best to estimate your implied odds quite conservatively.
True but I was trying to use the facts Larson had given such as the 30% to make it clearer for them.
Also you have no Garauntee they will bet again which is why with the Aq hand the odds cant tell you the amount of times you will flat call and the villain shuts down and you can steal it on a blank turn or river.
Or you can raise the flop and they fold so knowing the odds is good but IMO there is so much more to it than odds.
Pot odds only become the sole important question when you're facing the final bet and can only call or fold. So if you're facing an all-in or a river bet, closing the action and you're not considering raising. In that situation your decision is dictated purely by how much more it is to call and how you think your hand stands up against the range you're assigning to your opponent.
When facing bets on the flop you have to think of all your options when holding a draw, not just your odds to hit on the turn or river. If you raise you can increase your equity (chance to win the hand) by adding fold equity. If you call you may be able to bluff the turn which also increases your equity. You may think he gives you a free river a proportion of the time.
Opponent, reads.
There is a lot of variables, i was just asking in a straight up example to understand what pot odds was really talking about and to understand it.
Thanks Borin, you are a star.
If in the above example it's a pot sized bet, £10 into £10, so if we call its £10 into £20, so 2/1.
We have a 30% chance over flop and river, so 2/1 plus our bet would 3/1 divided by 1?
1/3 of 100= 33.3 = 33% against equity of 18%, so this would be a terrible call?
Unless we felt we had the implied odds to perhaps stack oppo if we hit our dream card?
EV, Extra Value??
2:1 indicates pot odds of two to one. Two in the middle and we need to call one.
2/1 indicates two divided by one.
So above you're getting pot odds of 2:1 whenever you face a full-pot bet. Your percentage odds are therefore 1/3 (one divided by three) x 100 which, you're correct, gives you 33%.
So if your equity is just 18% then the call would be bad.
Of course the equity of 18% in the open-ended straight-draw example given above is only your equity to hit over one card. So 18% to hit on the turn then another 18% to hit on the river, roughly speaking.