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Thoughts please.

edited April 2013 in The Poker Clinic
On a final table of a BH last night.  Have not played with this guy before and had no real reads on opponent but they had been limping on the button and making a few unconventional plays but I had not seen many showdowns so no realiable info.
What are your thoughts on the hand in general but I am interested on what do you do on the river?
Is this a good spot to jam repping the Ace or maybe your'e just ahead?
Flat hoping he has .....?
Fold and still have a 35+ BB stack?


PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceXSmall blind 2000.002000.00263163.25darsum333Big blind 4000.006000.0036169.00 Your hole cards10J   jonjo75Raise 8000.0014000.00178775.50Baccus00Fold    XCall 6000.0020000.00257163.25darsum333Fold    Flop  58J   XBet 8000.0028000.00249163.25jonjo75Raise 21000.0049000.00157775.50XCall 13000.0062000.00236163.25Turn  6   XBet 8000.0070000.00228163.25jonjo75Call 8000.0078000.00149775.50River  A   XBet 40000.00118000.00188163.25

Comments

  • edited March 2013
    Jamming river is too risky. He could easily have the A such as A5 and A8 which just improved. His lead out is constistent with that hand and his blocker bet on the turn also makes sense for this hand too. Its not impossible for him to have a set and his turn bet could have been another attempt to induce a raise. KJ and QJ and the occasional AJ that just flatted out of pos also fit in to his line of play so I think its all down to your read on his play so far on wether to fold or just call. You are beating some hands like 109s and 67s and 99,77 plus the very occasional bluff but overall I sigh fold.
  • edited March 2013
    Has to be a fold I think he could have anything and with so many hands beating you I don't think you can call. By only flat calling the turn he might smell weakness and think a pair of 8's is good or can push you off the hand after missing a draw.i've got a feeling he has hit 2pair though with a8 but could be way off. I think depends more on your experience/knowledge of the villain and his opinion of you
  • edited March 2013
    Shoving would just be bad. You don't get many hands to fold due to the price villain would be getting. Your hand also looks quite weak after you raise the flop then flat the turn.

    So, at most we do a call. Our hand is just a bluffcatcher.

  • edited March 2013
    Why you raising the flop?
  • edited March 2013
    I'm not sure why we want to raise the flop. What range are we giving him for donking? Are we hoping he calls with worse Jacks? There aren't many draws they can call with and they don't get it in with worse than JT, so are we really raising for value? He surely doesn't fold better hands.

    I don't think we should be raising a marginal hand in this situation.

    On the turn, when he donks small again, what range are we giving him? On the river, which is actually a rationally-sized bet, what range do we give him?

    It's really tough to see that we can beat any value hand that he's betting like this so, as NColley says, if we call we're bluff-catching. Whether we can turn our hand into a bluff depends entirely on what we think of his range on previous streets. The way it's played, I doubt he can be holding any better hand that we can force him to fold, so call to bluff-catch or fold. Probably fold unless we have experience of him taking this weird line with air or junk made hands.

    Don't raise the flop and call him down if we think he's donking light. There are too few draws to protect against to allow us to value raise with JT.
  • edited March 2013
    flat flop

    we're def ahead some of the time otr imo, but meh it's closer to a fold than a call imo because of his bet sizing and the lack of draws otf. Villain looks kinda fishy which would make me less inclined to turn our hand into a bluff so I'd probably just fold
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    Why you raising the flop?
    Posted by bearlyther[/QUOTE

    Its not twitter you can use as many characters as you like?
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please. :
    Why you raising the flop? Posted by bearlyther[/QUOTE Its not twitter you can use as many characters as you like?
    Posted by jonjo75
    Dont use twitter.  As you havnt answered my question il assume you dont know why you were raising the flop.
  • edited March 2013
    I agree the flop raise wasn't right. I think in the early stages of an MTT a donk bet is usually a weak player or just a weak hand so raising does a lot of the time take the hand down but in this situation with TP Mk its not doing much.


    I flat called in the end and he had QJ. I new I had played it badly and let it play on my mind a bit and went out a little while after.
    Thanks for the replys.
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please. : Dont use twitter.  As you havnt answered my question il assume you dont know why you were raising the flop.
    Posted by bearlyther

    Yeah you are more than likely right. The flop raise was a bad play.
    Do you fold the river?
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please. : Yeah you are more than likely right. The flop raise was a bad play. Do you fold the river?
    Posted by jonjo75
    You weren't asking me, but I think I'll nip in here anyway.

    I don't think you'd be asking if you could bluff-raise the river if you hadn't seen he was holding QJ. From the way it's played, I think it's likely that your opponent believed he had the best hand on the flop and turn. If you therefore make that range entirely hands that beat JT, I don't think he actually folds many of them to a river shove. He would probably fold QJ or KJ but the rest of his range is two-pair or better and that's not going anywhere.

    If he didn't have the best hand on the flop or turn, then we don't need to raise the river. We can just call him down.
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please. : Yeah you are more than likely right. The flop raise was a bad play. Do you fold the river?
    Posted by jonjo75
    His line is really weird calling your raise on the flop and leading turn and river.  Cant see that we beat much given his line but then again the ace is a great card for him to rep his line doesnt make much sense tho so sometimes id call sometimes and id fold sometimes depending on the dynamic and how i felt at the time.  Most of the time probobly a fold tho.
  • edited March 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please. : You weren't asking me, but I think I'll nip in here anyway. I don't think you'd be asking if you could bluff-raise the river if you hadn't seen he was holding QJ. From the way it's played, I think it's likely that your opponent believed he had the best hand on the flop and turn. If you therefore make that range entirely hands that beat JT, I don't think he actually folds many of them to a river shove. He would probably fold QJ or KJ but the rest of his range is two-pair or better and that's not going anywhere. If he didn't have the best hand on the flop or turn, then we don't need to raise the river. We can just call him down.
    Posted by BorinLoner
    Yeah you are spot on mate. At the time I didnt even think of shoving river but when I saw QJ it did cross my mind I might have got a fold.
  • edited March 2013
    Id also be thinking how many aces can he have in his range after playing the flop and turn this way that he now wants to bomb the river when the ace hits.
  • edited March 2013
    these lines are ones that just make me go isdjdfmgioewnbgwngl 

    awkward spot i fold. defo dont raise the flop tho, i call flop and probably station the pot controlled pot.
  • edited March 2013
    dnt understand the raise the flop tbh u want to keep the bluffs in so just flat call here as played sigh river i have to fold 
  • edited April 2013
    I like your reraise on the flop, people often donk lead with drawing hands and you've tried to reassert your dominance and agression in this hand. 

    Turn is where it gets difficult. He's called your reraise and the 6 on the turn you've appreciated hits his range of straight draw type hands so calling on the turn is appropriate. I maybe reraise again here with intention of check/folding middling/flushing cards on the river.

    Ace on the river doesnt add to straights or flushes. Not worried too much about one pair because otherwise he's called a reraise on flop with Ax. Could be a very cheesy two pair?

    As played I think you have to call, he could easily have A5spades, or something like 75 which you beat. Marginal though. Let us know what happened! 
  • edited April 2013
    In Response to Re: Thoughts please.:
    I like your reraise on the flop, people often donk lead with drawing hands and you've tried to reassert your dominance and agression in this hand.  Turn is where it gets difficult. He's called your reraise and the 6 on the turn you've appreciated hits his range of straight draw type hands so calling on the turn is appropriate. I maybe reraise again here with intention of check/folding middling/flushing cards on the river. Ace on the river doesnt add to straights or flushes. Not worried too much about one pair because otherwise he's called a reraise on flop with Ax. Could be a very cheesy two pair? As played I think you have to call, he could easily have A5spades, or something like 75 which you beat. Marginal though. Let us know what happened! 
    Posted by CUFCrp90
    Jonjo said in one of his later posts that he called and oppo showed QJ to win the hand.

    Why would we want to "reassert your dominance and aggression in the hand" by raising the flop? What's the value of retaking the betting lead on this flop? If all we achieve is to make weaker hands fold while being called by better hands, then raising the flop has a negative value for us.

    The 6 on the turn only fills a flopped double-gut-shot straight draw with 79 and we shouldn't be worried about such a narrow range of hands. It may make some funky two-pair hand but that's still a very narrow range and we'd have to think that our opponent had donk-bet and then called a raise with bottom pair or second pair with a 6 kicker.

    The question again would seem to be what value is there in raising the turn? We need to think that we're going to be called by weaker hands or can fold out better ones. I don't see many weaker hands that can call a raise here and it's tough to think we can make many better hands fold. If we raise the turn, considering the size of the pot, I think we're committing ourselves with a marginal hand.

    I don't understand why you'd think our opponent might play 75 this way but even if that's in his range, we have to beat roughly a quarter of that range to break even. Since this is a tournament, we realistically need to beat significantly more than this for the call to be correct. I think we struggle to beat 25% of oppo's range unless we have history to suggest that he is very bluffy, taking weird lines.
  • edited April 2013
    Good points well made BL....Wow I definitely thought that one too much

    I still think reraising flop is OK though. Its possibly cheaper to reraise flop/turn in the way that he did than to call a BB down, who is a big stack in the final table of the tourney, because if he just calls down he would have to call a value bet on the river. 

    Read the hand for a busted straight draw and player X made it look great so well done whoever it was because if it were me I would have gone broke!
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