Barclays Premier League 07/04/2013

Wilhelm

The early kick off sees Liverpool entertain West Ham.  Liverpool have hit a bit of form recently and are a best price of 4/11 at the time of writing.  I can't really see any value there and I don't like short priced favourites anyway.  I wouldn't take the 10/1 on the visitors either, I think we want at least 14/1 to be confident of having put a good bet on.

I've plugged the numbers and I think there is a 23-27% chance of a draw.  I got on at 19/4, many firms are offering 9/2, and if I couldn't get on at that price I would happily take 4/1.  Hopefully we can win back some of the money we gave the bookies over the last 3 days at Aintree.

Edit - The draw has jut gone out to 5/1 with one firm, so I've lumped a bit more on.  This really is a great bet.

Edit - West Ham or Draw @ 29/10 also decent value.  Would take 5/2.  Take your pick.

Wilhelm

Chelsea host Sunderland in on of the 15:00 kick offs.  With Rafa likely to rest players for the Europa League tie (a result in that would look better on his CV than guiding Chelsea to 4th) and Di Canio taking over a good squad of players, I think the draw at 5/1 is good value.  29/10 for Sunderland or Draw is also good value, but I'll stick with the draw.

Wilhelm

I've plugged the numbers for the game at St. James' Park and I think Fulham have a 65% chance of picking up at least one point.  They're in good form and I can't see them losing today.  I've gone for Fulham or Draw at 20/21.  I cannot understand how that price is so big.  St. James' Park hasn't exactly been a fortress this year, they may be tired after playing on Thursday, and Pardew may rest some players having to need a few goals against Benfica next week.

Edit: would also take either from Fulham @ 7/2 or Draw @ 11/4 if you can't get on the Double Chance.

achill

In Response to Barclays Premier League 07/04/2013:

The early kick off sees Liverpool entertain West Ham.  Liverpool have hit a bit of form recently and are a best price of 4/11 at the time of writing.  I can't really see any value there and I don't like short priced favourites anyway.  I wouldn't take the 10/1 on the visitors either, I think we want at least 14/1 to be confident of having put a good bet on. I've plugged the numbers and I think there is a 23-27% chance of a draw.  I got on at 19/4, many firms are offering 9/2, and if I couldn't get on at that price I would happily take 4/1.  Hopefully we can win back some of the money we gave the bookies over the last 3 days at Aintree. Edit - The draw has jut gone out to 5/1 with one firm, so I've lumped a bit more on.  This really is a great bet. Edit - West Ham or Draw @ 29/10 also decent value.  Would take 5/2.  Take your pick.
Posted by Wilhelm

good call.