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100nl Should I call here? I'm confused
PS Stacks pre action
I have £100
Villain has well over £100
Comments
If the club comes out on the turn and he bets out again do you call?
If you take the line you did I would bet stronger on the turn.... prob 3/4 pot. But to me the donk bet does look like hes hit a hand beating yours....probably the flush and id have to fold.
He might just be taking a stab at the pot but it's much more likely to be a flush than air. His range should not include overpairs, two-pairs, full houses or straights, given the action. So how many air hands does he play this way? Probably not many so it looks like a flush. Seems like it should be a fold. That's all assuming he's not a nutcase.
Just as importantly, what information do we expect to receive when we raise? Presumably if he 3-bets we fold and if he folds we've forced him to fold a weaker hand. That means that our raise gives our opponent extra value when he has us beat and costs us value when we have him beat.
The only good thing that can happen is that our opponent calls us with a weaker hand. Given his raise pre-flop and assuming he doesn't call a raise with less than KJ, QT and KQ, we're not getting called by that many worse hands.
The worst thing that can happen is that our opponent 3-bets and we convince ourselves he can be drawing and call as a big dog. Of course we might fold to that 3-bet when he actually does have a draw, which would also be bad.
I think calling the flop bet is best. On the turn we reassess.
Yes he should fold a lesser pocket pair, but many hands like KQ, Q10, AJ, KJ, K10, A10, 910, flush draw will still have a go at the pot.... and we should be making them pay to see the next card.
Get paid on the flop. Probably take down the pot on the turn on a blank card.... win the hand. But the line that we've taken has led to this tricky situation where we literally dont know where we stand in the pot and have to fold with top pair top kicker on the final card because we think we have let him hit his draw.
Theres no problem with being a bit more aggressive in hands when flops are this wet imo
We don't want to "take down the pot" if we have the best hand unless we think our opponent has really good equity against us. If we can get our opponent to fold a flush draw with a straight draw on the flop, that's good (although it won't happen because he's not folding that). Getting him to fold that hand on the turn is bad if we're way ahead of it by then. We want him to put the rest in when he's only got the river to hit his draw. In the long-run that's much more profitable for us.
Since we're in position, I think calling the flop bet is much better than raising. Sometimes our opponents are going to get there with their draws but we can't be afraid of that. Position is the key here. We know that we're unlikely to get our opponent to fold on the flop by raising, so see a turn and reassess. If the turn's a club, we get to see what our opponent does first. If it's not a club, we get to see what our opponent does first.
When we raise the flop we know that we only get continued action from hands with good equity against us and fold out the hands that don't have good equity against us. We don't want to narrow our opponent's range like that, especially when there's a good chance he'll 3-bet and we won't know what it means. We also significantly reduce the advantage we have of being in position.
(As it happens, I'd probably prefer check-calling this flop if we were out of position, too. Although obviously that's a theoretical situation lacking in specifics.)
With top pair top kicker we have to assume we are ahead. A raise on the flop gives us value if hes calling a drawing hand. It also allows us to determine if we are actually ahead. If he 3 bets we can assume we are behind and fold on the flop. It also means that the draw on the turn becomes too expensive for him so we can take it down there and we can win the pot.
Maybe its just how Id play the hand. Each to their own i guess.
We do actually gain information from calling and being in position means we see that information first. If we call the flop and the turn is a club (or not), we should be able to interpret what a bet or check from our opponent may mean. So we do gain some idea of what our opponent has by calling the flop bet and taking advantage of being in position on the turn.
It seems unlikely that I'm going to convince you. Hopefully others will post in the next few hours or tomorrow and we can see what they think. If the consensus is going to be against me, I want to know it.
In this scenario, luckily in my opinion, the villain checks to us on the turn and that shouts to me that he's drawing. A stronger turn bet is needed for value. If he folds we've gained a small pot. If he calls and hits we lose. If he misses then we take a slightly larger pot. If he raises we are most likely behind. Why can we not do this on the flop a street ahead? We gain more information from raising here and have the opportunity to get more value on the turn if he decides he still wants to pursue his draw. Potential winnings is much greater and we have a better read of where we are in the hand.
If he bets out on the turn again are we calling again to reassess on the river?
If the river isnt a club and they bet out again do we call again? We don't know if they have us beat or not as we have not forced the opponent at any point to give any indication of hand strength relative to the board.
Im not saying that youre wrong by any means and must confess that I've played similar hands your way, but its a wet flop. What are we doing on the flop? Trapping?
This will be my last post on this hand for a while because I want others to have a chance to agree or disagree with me and I don't want to end up putting people off.
When we call the flop, we're calling thinking there's a good chance we have the best hand and there's a good chance that our opponent is betting with much weaker ones. It's important to realise that a hand such as 9cTc or KcTc is actually a considerable favourite against us at this stage, so raising against that isn't charging a draw, it's paying off a better hand.
You're also assuming that our opponent only 3-bets better made hands against us. That's not an assumption we should make because lots of players will look to get it in on a draw when their equity is at it's highest, semi-bluffing hoping we can fold some better hands.
When we raise the flop we have to be thinking not only that we have the best hand alot of the time but that this is the best way to get value from the hand. If we're raising thinking that we can't stand a 3-bet, we're just raising hoping to be called by those KQ, KJ hands and draws. If draws are going to 3-bet some of the time, we have to be willing to call however this means getting it in on the flop only against hands that either have good equity against us or are already beating us.
*If we know that he only ever calls with draws, calls with weaker Queens, folds weaker hands than that and only 3-bets better made hands, then this is the best opponent to raise against. He calls with those draws, which we can charge again on the turn when we will be a big favourite with one card to come. However, I think this still isn't the best option for value. Alot of value is going to be lost when those weaker made hands fold and against the range that calls we're not huge favourites at this point. It's not bad to raise agaisnt this type of opponent assuming we don't pay him anymore if the club comes down, but I don't think it's better than calling.
You're right, if we call the flop alot of players will continue when a club comes whether they have it or not. That's why it's important to know which opponents will do that. In the absence of those specific reads we need to think about the bet-size and how the hand has played when deciding whether to call down. It may be that our opponent bets turn and river and we think it only makes sense for a nutted range. It may be that he just checks the turn, or bets small and gives up on the river. Some of the time we will end up folding the best hand on the turn or river if our opponent keeps betting but when we do fold, we're only folding top-pair. It's not a monster and we're rarely going to be a very long way ahead, anyway.
Raising the flop, I think, forces us to play a big pot against hands with good equity against us, removes any chance of getting value from hands that have very little equity against us and (if we're intending to fold to a 3-bet) means we risk being bluffed out of the pot having put extra money in, if our opponent 3-bets his drawing hands.
I'm never raise-folding this flop because I'm never raising top-pair as a bluff and I'm not raising top-pair for information. So if we're raising this flop I agree with grantorino that we must be intending to raise-call (unless we have specific reads that our opponent plays all non-nutted hands passively to a raise, as in the * example above). For that to be the case, we have to think that our opponent is 3-betting lots of draws. Even in that case, it seems very likely that calling the flop is the better value line because our opponent can continue with worse hands and we can get away without stacking off when the draws come in, rather than getting it in on the flop as either a flip or an underdog.
I think, in the end, you can't trust the information you'd get from a flop raise in the way you think you can. Even if you could trust it, it's not the best route for value, in my eyes, because we fold out all the hands that don't have a good chance to beat us and just put more money into the pot when we're not a favourite.
As I say, I hope others will post and won't be put off by the length of this.
I'll leave it to others to put in their opinions now. But IMO its one of those scenarios you can happily play it either way.
Wow, so much to read here this is really interesting… My hand analysis is fairly basic compared to you guys and it's really interesting to see all of your comments and difficult for me to take it all in to be honest
re: raising the flop, think I agree with Borin where he says ' Since we're in position, I think calling the flop bet is much better than raising. Sometimes our opponents are going to get there with their draws but we can't be afraid of that. Position is the key here. We know that we're unlikely to get our opponent to fold on the flop by raising, so see a turn and reassess. If the turn's a club, we get to see what our opponent does first. If it's not a club, we get to see what our opponent does first.'
if the club came out on the turn I can either fold to bet, call small bet and control pot size, bet for information, or check to control pot size again…
and gazza: " "...but its a wet flop. What are we doing on the flop? Trapping?"
I guess I'm not really trapping at this stage - I'm looking to re-asses on the turn and his check just left me confused… i got the feeling he was checking to gain information from my move, and perhaps get a free card - i.e flush, or straight drawing…. his check looks very weak, i think he's drawing… so therefore:-
I think my mistake here was not betting the turn big enough… I feel that the turn card hasn't helped and i am ahead, my mistake was giving him equity to call my bet and see the last card…
*I FOLDED*
thanks so much for all of this analysis, I'l be reviewing it a few more times to really get my head around it…!
jus skimming thrru some of it i can see theres alot of discussion on the flop play..
i think the flop play is close but seeing as op hasnt played much with villian (being only 2nd hand) i doubt he has the dynamic to r/call it off with toptop. in this case i think its more a call and play down the streets.
once u have decent reads on villan and a dynamic has been formed, it does depend on villan but at 100nl vs most regs id probally prefer raising callin as it keeps air in our range also.
as played im 100% calling the river
if were ever confused by someone then calling is probally best- take a note and move on-
in this hand villlan only really repping a flush, given we have to be good 42% of the time to BE and given your weak turn bet IMO we have to call
Whos afirad of the big bad club you or you opponent ?
Worse case scenrio is when oppo comes over the top of your 3 bet, so only 3 bet if your happy getting it in otherwise just call.
If you do call then bet bigger on turn
river - sigh - no shame in folding readless but would be tempted to call
probably, overall think calling is better than raising without any history/dynamic