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nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?

edited June 2013 in The Poker Clinic
HI R

EXACTLY!
Not really a cash player but a limp utg seems a bit odd. Trappy or suited connectors? No idea what kind of player x is. By river a number of draws(fl and str have got there) so i think a bet would be of no use, i suspect...check for me on river and get good info too!

PS KJs certainly fits the bill here i feel.

Comments

  • edited June 2013
    nut worse card in the deck ?
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    x Small blind   £0.15 £0.15 £51.06
    dontazeme Big blind   £0.30 £0.45 £37.17
      Your hole cards
    • 8
    • 8
         
    JACK24 Call   £0.30 £0.75 £18.87
    rancid Raise   £1.20 £1.95 £28.80
    DannyMcs Fold        
    martinlm17 Fold        
    x Call   £1.05 £3.00 £50.01
    dontazeme Fold        
    JACK24 Fold        
    Flop
       
    • Q
    • A
    • 8
         
    x Check        
    rancid Bet   £2.10 £5.10 £26.70
    x Call   £2.10 £7.20 £47.91
    Turn
       
    • 10
         
    x Check        
    rancid Bet   £5.70 £12.90 £21.00
    x Call   £5.70 £18.60 £42.21
    River
       
    • 9
         
    x Check        
    rancid
  • edited June 2013

    value bet.

    I don't think they're checking down a flush or straight and think there are enough hands out there to pay you off

  • edited June 2013
    flats with AA or QQ?
    TT?
    you have to be ahead of most of the villains range
    vbet 4sure
  • edited June 2013
    Betting 3 quid would be profitable over time.
  • edited June 2013
    I think I try squeeze a little more value maybe bet around £9-11 hope get called by ax/2pr hands also agree with huuuume don`t think they have flush or straight very often.
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    i would deffo value bet on the river as it was checked to u surely the opponent would bet a str8 or a flush if he got there  i dnt agree with dohhh if u bet £3 ya hand looks exactly what it is and trying to extract some thin value so any player with a brain would know this and raise  id b/f around £7 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    If they see it as weak and spa zz out and raise with worse isn't that good?

    P.S. Welcome back
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    i would deffo value bet on the river as it was checked to u surely the opponent would bet a str8 or a flush if he got there  i dnt agree with dohhh if u bet £3 ya hand looks exactly what it is and trying to extract some thin value so any player with a brain would know this and raise  id b/f around £7 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    why not bet/call £3 then?
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    no coz then ya think your set is behind and ya would fold to a raise
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    Well that depends, if you're betting an amount that you think will make him raise light, then you can call cos he doesn't have to have us beat.

    If you don't think he'll see it as weak and raise light, then your initial point makes no sense.

  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    no coz then ya think your set is behind and ya would fold to a raise
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    if our bet size induces loads of bluffs then why should we fold? we crush bluffs. We've got a set!
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    if u bet £3 then get raised ya gnna think ffs i just been trapped here how is my set of 8s ever good here on such a dangerous river card id rather bet a proper amount  small river bets are block bets and trying to get thin value not hard to suss out see it loads  was a £5 pot yesterday guy bet 50 p each street and on river 50p so obv he has hit but hit weak so i went £7 with air gets thru ofc it gets thru 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    EXACTLY!!

    So we bet £3 with our set of 8s, someone with a miss draw or w/e thinks 'that's a weak bet, I'll raise to £10', we snap and say 'ty sir'.

    If people raise this bet with bluffs, good. If they don't then again you're original statement is wrong, gotta be one or the other.
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    y bet light to induce i dnt get it myself just bet a normal amount  so ya betting light to hope the guy raises then your in a tricky situation on weather or not to call or not 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    Well you said this earlier in the thread......

    "i dnt agree with dohhh if u bet £3 ya hand looks exactly what it is and trying to extract some thin value so any player with a brain would know this and raise"

    So we look weak to induce the bluff, if we think he is 'half decent', then snap call it off?
  • edited June 2013
    But as has been discussed (and you agreed), it's unlikely they've checked down a flush or straight, so surely looking weak and getting them to bluff raise makes it even better calling because of the alot of the hands that could beat us they shouldn't have.
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    if u hit the river nuts etc would u still bet £3 no u wouldnt these tells are so fricing easy to see i bet £3 for thin value in a £16 pot etc  if i hit nuts on river id bet £10 etc so easy to suss 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    If I think betting £3 into £16 will get me check raised alot of the time (as you seem to believe), then yes ofc I would.
  • edited June 2013
    risk reward

    major issue with this hand, what does oppo continue with on flop ? KJ/J10/J9/Adxd
    then the board runs out blockers to most FD/SD combos

    How can I not shove river ?

    or do we just b/f and if so how much so we don't have to call it off ?


    what range is oppo limp/calling UTG, it's so narrow by river to get value from AQ/A10 - super dooper thin Ax

    you guys - get a room
  • edited June 2013

    bet/fold £3 is better than check back imo.

    Might be a better amount, but betting 3 beans /> checking :D

    unless we know that he thinks £3 'looks like exactly what it is', then we can bet/snap call!
  • edited June 2013
    fwiw £3 or £7 - really no differance ;_)

  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    ofc it des rancid £7 is half pot bet £3 is a nothing bet so if u bet £3 and guy bets £15 are u really loving life and call ? if u bet £7 and guy sets u in theres no way your ahead here 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    so if you bet £3 or £7 your still folding ?
    So looking at oppo range what percentage of that c/f, c/c or c/r.

    What is oppo range ? what calls you £7 that you beat as opposed to call or raises with better

    surely we are just throwing away £3 or £7

    do we jst hope oppo has AQ/A10/Ax/Q8 and happily stations three streets on that run out


    loosing 0 />3 />7

    does oppo bluff catch a shove or fold better if we shove !

    winning pot />winning £7 )




  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    n that my freind is why u never beat me on a cash game :)  just to good 
    Posted by IDONKCALLU

    Don't know who that is directed at but thanks for your input...


    now tell me the f...cking password
  • edited June 2013

    lol IDCU, that was a quick comeback!

    It's nice to be nice. Would it not be best deleting some of the above posts. Totally pointless, flaming  people.

    Well done atleast 1 was deleted!
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    loool that all u got :)
    Posted by IDONKCALLU

    why u delete that silly post where you rubbish my game ?

    Post it back up so everyone can see what a silly boy you are )

    think you have problems with engaing in debate about poker hands, maybe you should avoid it because it's obviously goes over your head.

    but again thanks for the input
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river? : why u delete that silly post where you rubbish my game ? Post it back up so everyone can see what a silly boy you are ) think you have problems with engaing in debate about poker hands, maybe you should avoid it because it's obviously goes over your head. but again thanks for the input
    Posted by rancid
    Yeah it's just a forum IDCU, have your opinions and debate, which is outstanding.

    But to then have a go at people, and hide it behind "lols" and "lmaos" putting it across as banter just seems like a waste of energy and time.

    You seem like a good guy, but some of that stuff is uncalled for.

  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river? : Yeah it's just a forum IDCU, have your opinions and debate, which is outstanding. But to then have a go at people, and hide it behind "lols" and "lmaos" putting it across as banter just seems like a waste of energy and time. You seem like a good guy, but some of that stuff is uncalled for.
    Posted by LARSON7
    Well IDCU come on this thread and posts directed at me attacking my game for some reason and then deletes the post.

    Don't understand what the guys problem is and why he feels the need to rubbish my game and then delete the post -


    Super inflated perception of how good you are IDCU ?

    wow





  • edited June 2013
    Why £3? If hes calling 3 hes prob calling 6-7.

    Personally don't think you'll get bluff raised much at 30nl on the river but i don't play this limit so could be wrong.

  • edited June 2013
    We should be betting the same on the river as we would if we had a Jack for the straight since we're looking to be called by roughly the same hands (except sets, obviously, and he never has those given the call on the flop and lack of 3-bet pre-flop). We're not sizing our bets on the strength of our hand but on the strength of the range we're trying to get value from. I'd agree with those saying we're not likely to be check-raised as a bluff on this river too often and we should need very specific reads to suspect this would happen, in my opinion.

    So I'd be betting £7 or so here, just the same as if I had the nuts. Our opponent's range doesn't figure to be all that strong, given the action, but I think we will be called often enough to make the £7 better than £3. I don't think it narrows his calling range much more than the £3.

    I don't know if we'd bet any weaker hands than bottom set on this river but unless we know he's not calling down with two-pairs, I think we should bet.

    If we have a problem with another forum reg it would be best to settle it via PM and not on threads like this. We're all grown ups here, let's treat each other with the respect we deserve.
  • edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: nl30 flopped set, check behind on river?:
    We should be betting the same on the river as we would if we had a Jack for the straight since we're looking to be called by roughly the same hands (except sets, obviously, and he never has those given the call on the flop and lack of 3-bet pre-flop). We're not sizing our bets on the strength of our hand but on the strength of the range we're trying to get value from. I'd agree with those saying we're not likely to be check-raised as a bluff on this river too often and we should need very specific reads to suspect this would happen, in my opinion. So I'd be betting £7 or so here, just the same as if I had the nuts. Our opponent's range doesn't figure to be all that strong, given the action, but I think we will be called often enough to make the £7 better than £3. I don't think it narrows his calling range much more than the £3. I don't know if we'd bet any weaker hands than bottom set on this river but unless we know he's not calling down with two-pairs, I think we should bet. If we have a problem with another forum reg it would be best to settle it via PM and not on threads like this. We're all grown ups here, let's treat each other with the respect we deserve.
    Posted by BorinLoner
    More I think about it, equally both our ranges get there.
    Struggling to see what part of oppo range still stations river and if so oppo call's £13 equally as calls £7.
    How can we be certain that oppo always has the weak part of their range to be betting.

    what's in weak part of oppo range that call river if we bet ?
    Are they calling because they are station or have a bluff catcher ?
    both ends of oppo range have us beat, so we are beating a very narrow portion.
    If we are considering v/b verus a smaller percentage of combos, then this has got to be -EV.

    Funny thing is if we beleive oppo will station river with such a weak holding then maybe we should just shove !
    Will a shove fold out hands that have us beat if oppo is not a station but how do we balance that with oppo folding better.

    --

    More I think about it, I like a check because if we bet most of the time we are beat

    But anyway, anyone fancy a check on the turn ?

    --------
    Yeah respect,  I don't give respect when people don't show respect.
     





  • edited June 2013
    How many Jx hands does he call the flop with? Does he call with KJ? If we think he does call with KJ then he probably stations river with weaker hands. If he doesn't call KJ then he probably doesn't have better on this river.

    We're basically looking to be called by only two-pairs or stationed with top-pair, yes. However, having checked the river I wouldn't expect him to have many better hands. Our range should be a lot of hands that check-back the river but might call a bet so if he has a flush or a straight himself he should bet. Whether he believes that or not, who knows?

    If we don't think we'll be called by two-pair hands or worse then don't bet, obviously. However, I wouldn't think he has better very often so give him the chance to call with worse.
  • edited June 2013
    some jx hands - J10,J9,KJ,QJ
    but J9/J10 sooted gives up on turn
    given board runs out 10d, 9d - destroys fd combo and narrows down to offsuit

    what two prs ? AQ/A10/Q8

    one prs - possible Ax


    what portion we v/b against Ax,AQ

    factor in strong limp/call range of AA/QQ
    random suited K10's, Ax's


    still looks like value combos have us in bad shape and turns up with more combos that have us beat but honestly might do some concrete maths later

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