What is the right play... for once and for all

smileychop

Right, this is a hand that i'm really not sure if I made the right play. its at an early stage in a £1.05 Heads Up against a sometimes tight player... I knew he had a flush draw after the flop, and knowing this, I call his all in, with my top pair, king kicker... is this the right move at this stage?

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalances Small blind  15.00 15.00 1365.00 smileychop Big blind  30.00 45.00 1590.00   Your hole cards J K       s Raise  75.00 120.00 1290.00 smileychop Raise  180.00 300.00 1410.00 s Call  120.00 420.00 1170.00 Flop    3 J 8       smileychop Bet  180.00 600.00 1230.00 s All-in  1170.00 1770.00 0.00 smileychop Call  990.00 2760.00 240.00 s Show K 10    smileychop Show J K    Turn    A       River    A       s Win Flush to the Ace 2760.00

DOHHHHHHH

How did you know he had a flush draw?

If we know he has a flush draw, of course we should call.

jdsallstar

if you put him on a flush draw and no over cards that gives him 9 outs.

easy way to work out percentage to win a hand is outs times 4 on the flop and on the turn it's times 2.

therefore he had a 36% (9 x 4) chance of winning the hand when the money went in on the flop. so you're 64% fav.
 
when the turn gave him 3 more queens as outs for the straight plus the remaining diamonds he had 12 outs giving him a 24% (12 X 2) chance to win the hand on the river. so you were 76% fav on the turn.

That methods not exact as it's normally out by a percent or 2 but gives you a rough idea.

ps this sort of post should go in the poker clinic

smileychop

In Response to Re: What is the right play... for once and for all:

How did you know he had a flush draw? If we know he has a flush draw, of course we should call.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Gut feeling Dohhhhh. I just know hes got a flush draw... 

smileychop

In Response to Re: What is the right play... for once and for all:

if you put him on a flush draw and no over cards that gives him 9 outs. easy way to work out percentage to win a hand is outs times 4 on the flop and on the turn it's times 2. therefore he had a 36% (9 x 4) chance of winning the hand when the money went in on the flop. so you're 64% fav.   when the turn gave him 3 more queens as outs for the straight plus the remaining diamonds he had 12 outs giving him a 24% (12 X 2) chance to win the hand on the river. so you were 76% fav on the turn. That methods not exact as it's normally out by a percent or 2 but gives you a rough idea. ps this sort of post should go in the poker clinic
Posted by jdsallstar

Thanks JD. Thats a great way of doing the percentages, i' ll remember that.

I'll keep these sort of things for the poker clinic, going forward.

Thanks again

percival09

Are you a live player?

LARSON7

In Response to Re: What is the right play... for once and for all:

Are you a live player?
Posted by percival09

Pretty confident he is!

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: What is the right play... for once and for all:

In Response to Re: What is the right play... for once and for all : Gut feeling Dohhhhh. I just know hes got a flush draw... 
Posted by smileychop

You didn't know, then. You hoped he had a flush draw. If you came to the conclusion that his range was weighted more towards flush draws, while still perhaps including made hands then that would be reasonable. "Gut feeling" just indicates you're not rationally narrowing his range down and making decisions based on those logic-driven judgements.

As it is, you have a big hand heads-up here and should certainly call. It's unlucky that he got there but that happens. He had decent equity when the money went in but you were the favourite so that's what you should focus on.

You made the correct decision but perhaps not on the back of ideal reasoning.

unknown_username

Hi S

TPwk v flush draw after flop. You can estimate his equity as 4 x no of outs= 36%. So definite call. Mind how would you know he was on a flush draw? Wishful thinking methinks sir? Tbh it's such a good board for you. A flush puts you in that 60:40 range and above which makes your decision for you.

smileychop

fair enough guys, i've definately used the wrong word there. i dont know he's on a flush draw. i just put him on one, but like you all say, how could i possibly know... i think i'm saying that because i have been shoved on after the flop by a player with a flush draw a fair few times recently.

In terms of the players range, i didnt really know that either. i think this was only about the 15th hand i had with this player and the only read i got was that he was a tight player. so i was fairly certain it was not a bluff or 2nd or 3rd pair when he is going all in. (perhaps i need to improve on looking at what the players range is)

so heres another question... i know he hit his flush but did he make the right decision going all in at this early stage with a flush draw, when he could of folded/called with still quite a reasonable stack?

 

bolly580

nice call was all going well to the river...and then....

CURTAINS