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Standard pre flop decision when everyone is roughly 100bb deep
Right so situation came up earlier on a table when i had a opened then faced a 3bet and a flat in front, just wanted to check that its completly standard to flat with these stack sizes with a pair, in this case 9s but am i right in assuming it would be ok with any pair from 2s-9s up essentially looking to set mine and not overplaying just the one pair? also if the other player doesn't flat here i was weighing towards a fold is that wrong the 3bet is fairly large and from a tight player in the sb so giving them alot of credit and im not sure if set mining against one oppo in this spot is the right play? the fact both players were in made it alot easier to call to set mine pre.
| x | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £9.94 | |
| lhawk1991 | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £7.49 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| x | Call | £0.10 | £0.25 | £9.38 | |
| lovejoy61 | Fold | ||||
| pepo | Fold | ||||
| benc | Raise | £0.40 | £0.65 | £14.68 | |
| x | Raise | £1.70 | £2.35 | £8.24 | |
| lhawk1991 | Fold | ||||
| x | Call | £1.65 | £4.00 | £7.73 | |
| benc | Call | £1.35 | £5.35 | £13.33 |
Comments
If 2nd player 4 bets, easy fold.
Ideal stacks for set mining, as long as we are confident can stack opponent with there aces kings queens when we hit our set.
8-1 to hit our set. Someone mentioned before as long as they are about 70 bigs behind we have the implied odds to make the call.
If you reckon it's a tight player and has a very narrow range here/ big pairs/ AK maybe AQ
And will call off with say Aces Kings on a 9/10 high board. For sure.
I wouldn't be mad keen on calling with 2-6's but i suppose it is the same principal.
when the person in the SB does a raise we can't guarantee that he is ahead for sure I wouldn't rule out the chance that he could be holding AQo AKo or KQs AJs if the flop then came 8high It might be ok to make a call because with hands such as AK knowing he gets called on the flop the chances are he will start putting you on 1010 JJ or a set so I couldn't see him betting the turn too unless he has a flush draw too.
That's the amount we need to win on average in the long-run just to break even if we win every time we hit our set. Unfortunately there will be times when we hit our set and lose or hit our set and don't get paid enough, so in truth you need to be able to win considerably more than 7.5x the amount of the call in order to set-mine profitably. The closer to that 7.5x number you get, the more certain you have to be that you will get paid every time and have the best hand every time.
So here, we can win the £4 in the pot already, plus a maximum of £8.24 from either one of our opponents (The 3-better). So if the third player doesn't put another penny in post-flop, the most we can win if we always win when we hit our set is £12.24 (less the rake). That's just 9x the amount of the pre-flop call.
That 9x is just not enough because you simply can't be sure you'll get it all every single time you hit your set. You also can't be sure you'll win every time you hit your set.
You can't really factor the third player's stack into your implied odds because players tend not to stack off three-handed in 3-bet pots without good equity. So it's unlikely that you'll get both of the other players to put significantly more in post-flop and when they do, you'll frequently find that one of them at least has good equity against your set with a big draw of some kind.
Basically, if you can only win this pot by hitting your set, you don't have the implied odds to call the pre-flop 3-bet.
If we get all-in on the flop versus the bigger stack with no more money from the third player, the pot will be £21.83. The maximum rake at NL10 is £1.60, I think at 7.5% so we lose £1.60 from this pot. Now it's £20.23.
If we assume that the best scenario for getting it in on the flop is against an overpair, we'll have roughly 91% equity. So £18.41 of the pot at that stage is "ours". Take our own stake away, from the point before we call pre-flop (£9.59), and we make a profit of £8.82.
That is if we always get the lot.
Our minimum break even is £10.13, so we can see that set-mining against the 3-better is -EV. We'd need to add a minimum of £1.31 in dead money from the third player just to make it up to our break even point.
All three stacks going in the middle is pretty unlikely but even if we get that, our equity is likely to be lower than 91% so we can't just say "add the third stack" to our implied odds.
I think those numbers are right but it's late so I might be messing something up. Check my figures:
4 + 1.35 + 8.24 +8.24 = 21.83
21.83 - 1.6 = 20.23
20.23 x 0.91 = 18.41
18.41 - 9.59 = 8.82
If those numbers are right, it seems impossible for this to be a +EV set-mine in the long-run.
Even then, 7.5x is only enough to break even if our set has 100% equity (which it won't), we're 100% certain to always get all the money in (which we won't be) and there's no rake.
u call here your burning money
What was the outcome anyway?
Took about 15 posters itt, but we got there boys. nh wp gg.
"...am i right in assuming it would be ok with any pair from 2s-9s up essentially looking to set mine and not overplaying just the one pair?"
The answer to that question is "No, it's not okay to set-mine here". It's tough to prove that without working out the implied odds for set-mining. Nobody is suggesting we should always be set-mining pocket pairs.
Whether we can call for value with history on the 3-better is another question. Heads-up, we could definitely call for value if we give him a wide 3-bet range. However, this 3-bet is pretty huge and we'll be playing a 54BB pot against two opponents knowing we're going to see at least one overcard to our 99 about 80% of the time. In that context, against the two ranges and an effective stack of 82BB, 99 would seem to be a marginal hand.
It would be nice to have answers to questions like "Does the 3-better c-bet wide OOP three-handed?" and "Does the limp-caller play face-up post-flop?".
Of course with reads we can play in position and trust ourselves to make good decisions. Even then we'll probably make the wrong decision plenty of times. Without reads we should probably assume that the 3-better doesn't have a super-wide range and just fold.