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20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board

Lambert180Lambert180
edited June 2013 in The Poker Clinic
What are people's thoughts on the lines we can take on the river...

Haven't played 20NL for a while and wasn't at the table long so only know that he isn't a well known good reg. #crapreads

I will sometimes donk the flop here but decided not to on this occasion. Still pretty confident I'm ahead on the turn because I don't think he is 5x'ing pre with any Tx hand other than TT so at this point, I think I'm probably only behind TT, JJ, QQ and he probably bets all 3 of them hands on the flop as the aggressor when he's been checked to. Figured I could extract more value from the weaker hands in his range by taking a more passive line.

Meh, hate being OOP.

River decision, bet/fold, check/call, check/raise, if we c/r or bet/fold, what size do we go?
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
obclead Small blind   £0.10 £0.10 £25.80
Lambert180 Big blind   £0.20 £0.30 £19.18
  Your hole cards
  • 9
  • 9
     
splashies Fold        
liamboi11 Fold        
X Raise   £1.00 £1.30 £29.53
70theo Fold        
obclead Fold        
Lambert180 Call   £0.80 £2.10 £18.38
Flop
   
  • J
  • 8
  • 9
     
Lambert180 Check        
X Check        
Turn
   
  • Q
     
Lambert180 Check        
X Bet   £1.58 £3.68 £27.95
Lambert180 Call   £1.58 £5.26 £16.80
River
   
  • A
     
Lambert180 Check        
X Bet   £2.63 £7.89 £25.32
           
           
           
           
           
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Comments

  • gazza127gazza127
    edited June 2013
    As played I call.  Only reason being that sureeeely oppo would be betting any 10 on that flop.

    Otherwise you can B/F £2 quid on river.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited June 2013
    Also doubt oppo has 1010 JJ or QQ.  He'd 100% be betting the flop.... you'd think.

    But i imagine you called and lost so maybe im wrong!
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    Well yeah, I mentioned that in the OP, pretty much every single hand that beats me would bet the flop. Following this theory, if there are practically no hands that beat us and he's still betting, can we raise for value?

    I won't say what I did or the result but it didn't play out as you guessed.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2013
    call
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: 20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board:
    call
    Posted by IDONKCALLU
    Lol thanks for the thoughtful response.

    Is check/call better than bet/fold then?

    What hands can he have here that beat us?
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited June 2013
    We cant raise for value unless you think oppo is going to call you with two pair or worse.... you'd be turning youre hand into a bluff trying to rep a 10.  You fold out hands which aren't beating you (most likely) and donating money to those that are.

    Unless youve got a very specific read here you can only call.

    Plus its very hard to rep a 10 as you havent led out on river or raised turn.  I know ive just contradicted myself as now this means thinking players will call with worse thinking its a bluff.... but still.  I'd avoid it.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2013
    yeah check call is better 

    as any 10 beats ya so if u bet n then get raised on ya like sigh im beating naff all so c/call here 


    ace 10 could easily have 


    think betting the river is a big mistakes imo as u hate life if u get raised think u played it fine aslong as u just called the river 
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  • est1967est1967
    edited June 2013
    All id say is why check flop?..Id bet personally right/wrong but I would never check the perfect flop.

    Im not saying in your eyes it was bad play but id always bet any flop good or bad.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: 20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board:
    All id say is why check flop?..Id bet personally right/wrong but I would never check the perfect flop. Im not saying in your eyes it was bad play but id always bet any flop good or bad.
    Posted by est1967
    Probably expecting a C-bet to raise.
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  • est1967est1967
    edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: 20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board:
    In Response to Re: 20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board : Probably expecting a C-bet to raise.
    Posted by gazza127
    Yep agree but my philosophy is never let them catch..
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2013
    when some 1 raises u pre flop and u call most of the times u check to the guy who raised preflop some times its ok to donk lead out depends on reads on opponent etc  
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    Yeah Gazza answered. I'm not the preflop aggressor so will check to them sometimes, especially as it's a good flop for me to check/raise cos I'd also be doing it with draws.

    Will post result a bit later.
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  • bencbenc
    edited June 2013
    i would check then b/f about £5.75, 1/2 pot on the river feels like he is value betting something but is weary of the one to a straight. If he doesn't usually 5x, then the check back on the flop could be some kind of bad slowplay so wouldnt be suprised to see him turn up with a set that beats you, i would still be looking to get value from Ax and possible two pairs though so think i would bet/fold.
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  • SmitalosSmitalos
    edited June 2013
    Stone wall check-snap. All day. Every day. Twice on Sundays.

    Getting 3/1 we beat a little of his value range, not to mention he could just be bluffing.
    Smells like some sort of spazzily played set, but we're at 20NL, so... meh.

    Check-folding isn't ideal.
    Donk leading is awful.
    Check-raising should be punishable by death.

    Disown anyone who tells you otherwise.
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  • RyanC7RyanC7
    edited June 2013
    Check-call turn, Check-fold river.. is awful lol. Easiest river decision ever. 
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    Siiigh Smitty,

    What is your chosen form of execution...
    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    obclead Small blind   £0.10 £0.10 £25.80
    Lambert180 Big blind   £0.20 £0.30 £19.18
      Your hole cards
    • 9
    • 9
    		     
    splashies Fold        
    liamboi11 Fold        
    X Raise   £1.00 £1.30 £29.53
    70theo Fold        
    obclead Fold        
    Lambert180 Call   £0.80 £2.10 £18.38
    Flop
       
    • J
    • 8
    • 9
    		     
    Lambert180 Check        
    X Check        
    Turn
       
    • Q
    		     
    Lambert180 Check        
    X Bet   £1.58 £3.68 £27.95
    Lambert180 Call   £1.58 £5.26 £16.80
    River
       
    • A
    		     
    Lambert180 Check        
    X Bet   £2.63 £7.89 £25.32
    Lambert180 Raise   £5.26 £13.15 £11.54
    X Call   £2.63 £15.78 £22.69
    Lambert180 Show
    • 9
    • 9
    		     
    X Muck
    • Q
    • A
    		     
    Lambert180 Win Three 9s £14.99   £26.53
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    In Response to Re: 20NL - Flopped Set on Scary Board:
    Check-call turn, Check-fold river.. is awful lol. Easiest river decision ever. 
    Posted by RyanC7
    I'm never c/f river but just put all options in for people lol.

    Obv people can say it's results orientated but I deffo think alot of weak players (which I think he is) will sigh call a raise here with most 2prs, and I just think he's so rarely got me beat.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2013
    think u got away with 1 here think raising the river is still really bad 
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    This is why I posted it cos I wanted to see the opinions before I showed what I actually did but I'm genuinely shocked. Like I'm open to be persuaded why it's bad but in my mind, he has virtually zero hands that beat me so if I raise and he folds so what, but I think he has WAY more hands that he will call a raise with.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited June 2013
    what if he reraises your raise without   a   10  your going to be out leveling yaself  when u have a decent showdown hand 


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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited June 2013
    If he 3bets the river then obv I have to fold and assume he somehow has one of the few hands he can have that beat me, but I reckon he's 3betting the river close to never.
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  • bencbenc
    edited June 2013
    Well what i wrote was pretty much he same as your line so i guess we are both awful lol
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  • BigHawk89BigHawk89
    edited June 2013
    I like the c.r, think I know which oppo it was and he was paying off with all sorts. Against most people though its a c.c, the raise is very thin. Wp though.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited June 2013
    think the way the hand plays out and with oppo sizing - they aint' got a 10 - it's a fine read

    too much of this thin value raising/bets though and it just ends up as spew





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