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again and again!
you didnt post my last one, but could u tell me some stats? just been done again and then again when dominating on the river 3 outs they hit again, this happens 90% of the time, not just this i lose 90% of races, can this be explained? i would like to see all my stats if i can, can i do this?
Comments
You wouldn't believe the number of posts we see just like this. I'll bottom line this for you. You have two choices:
1) Continue to think that either you're terribly unlucky or the software is rigged against you. You'll never improve, will keep losing and will keep blaming things beyond your control for your poor results.
2) You can study the game more deeply and educate yourself on variance, expected value and all sorts of other things that will help you understand that even the best players only have a small edge.
It's up to you.
From the way you discuss the game I can promise you that you have an awful lot to learn. Your thinking is results orientated, as demonstrated above, and you think a small number of hands is a representative sample. You also don't include vital information when you talk about a hand, which suggests that you don't appreciate why that information is so vital.
I can only tell you that people who go down the route of "I'm really unlucky and things don't seem right to me" are always people that don't understand the true variance and expected returns of the game. If you want to engage with other players in constructive discussion to improve your game, you've got to let go of the attitude that something's not quite right.
Only a small proportion of players are winning players. They don't win because they're lucky, they win because they put an awful lot of time and effort into improving. They make good decisions and are rewarded in the long run. If you're making losses in the long run, it's because you're making bad decisions, not because the game is crooked.
You really did get the best possible outcome when your opponents all show up with Ax hands, but that's not what's going to happen most of the time. Most of the time, they'll both have either two over cards or a pair. Against their possible ranges you're not in good shape and this call is therefore bad.
If the initial two opponents had the following hands;
88 v KQs v A5o
which is actually a really good scenario for you, the equity would be:
36% (88) v 39% (KQs) v 25% (A5o)
So the KQ would be the best hand in this situation. If the A5 was in fact an overpair to your 88:
17% (88) v 40% (KQs) v 43% (JJ)
Your call wasn't proved correct simply because this time they happened to have those Ax hands. Most of the time, you're getting it in behind and some of the time you're getting it in a long, long way behind.
Don't call other players donks. It just makes you seem rude. It's an especially bad idea if you're actually a losing player yourself.
It's not a good read that the shover and caller must have weaker hands than yours, though. You need to give them both ranges of hands which they could have and work out your equity against them. If the first opponent can have A3, he can presumably have AA, JJ, KQ, A9, QJ, etc. just as easily. The caller's range should be stronger than this because you need a bigger hand to call than to shove.
I don't know if calling with AQ was good because you haven't given any information on stack sizes or on the potential ranges of the player's involved. In a vacuum, I'd say that the call with AQ in this situation is very unlikely to be a good one. However, the player with the AQ isn't the one asking the question.
I'm saying that I think it's pretty unlikely that calling here with the 88 is a good play. You'd have to provide a lot more information. Post the hand history if you can find it and give us reads on each opponent, such as; What hands have you seen them open-shove with/call with previously? How often has the opener been shoving?
Without that information and without stack sizes, payout structures and all sorts of other things, I can only offer an opinion in a vacuum. In a vacuum, I don't think the call with 88 is a good one because you're hoping to be flipping and will frequently be way behind.
As for you losing with the best hand 90% of the time, well that's just an assertion you can't back up with any evidence. It's much more likely that you're just overlooking the occasions when your best hand actually holds up.
Listen, I don't want to be getting on your case. I don't actually care if you're a winning player or not. It makes no difference to me. All I'm saying is that getting upset, thinking that you're losing because you're "unlucky" or because there's something dodgy happening, is going to prevent you from improving. You need to be critical of your own play at all times and not let your ego get involved and that's a problem we all have.
Try posting some hand histories in the Clinic section and see what people think. I'd advise just about every player to do the same, so don't think I'm singling you out.