Tricky spot in a mtt final table

IDONKCALLU

top 5 pay  

$560 1st 

$400 2nd 

$220 3rd 

$130 4th 

$85 5th 

was a $33 rebuy 

9 left blinds are 1k/2k with a 200 ante

im sitting in 4th atm with 38  k  

folds round to me on the button with q h   j h i min raise to 4k fold to big blind he calls has me covered as chip leader with 68k 

flop qc 9s 7d  so rainbow   guy checks i bet half pot around 5 k left me with 29k left the guy check raises me all in what do we do here ??????

KING2600

Think you need to give a 'little' bit more information here...

GELDY

yep - not just your read on him, but how does he see you. are you always stealing blinds, c-betting etc.

IDONKCALLU

not played the guy this was only the second hand in on the final table so no reads 

DeucesLive

It's entirely player dependent, really. Without real reads we have to go based on whatever we can, so what we know is he's final tabled an MTT, and is chip leader. That can mean nothing of course, he may well have got lucky, but it's more likely that he's a reasonably decent player.

So if we make the assumption he knows what he's doing, he should be aware that with your chipstack in the comfortable cashing range, you're going to be very unwilling to go up against another big stack unless you have a lock on the hand. He also knows your button range is probably wider than usual, and you're likely to c-bet without a big part of the board. He could be protecting a low pair from hands like AJ/A10, he could easily have a straight draw. I would be fairly confident in saying at this point you're ahead. He has a hand like 8-10/10-J so many times. It's hugely unlikely he has a set, those kind of pps would be setting you in pre since they rarely flop well. The only other options are 2 pair like 79, Q9, Q7. Q7 would be pretty loose, but I guess you can't discount it. 

On balance, I'd take a call here. QJ is pretty strong indeed against his range, I'd guess you're around a 60-70% favourite.

CraigSG1

In my experiance this stinks of two pair but on a draw heavy board I agree this is a very tough decision. 

Im more inclined to call if the guy has been agro or I have been involved a lot lately but if as you say you have no reads then I probably fold with it being the final table (of 9 i assume) so I still have a chance to pick up reads and try for a better spot.

Plus, being a good player you can now take that image of raise folding the button to get value from your bigger hands.

GELDY

both opinions make sense

for me if i feel i have an edge over the field i will probably fold based on craigs argument

however if there are a some very good players present i might go for the double up to give me some ammunition and avoid being bullied as a small stack

rancid

If you think your ahead call, how hard can it be )


flip 6s8s and backdoors it all