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How many outs needed??
How many outs would you say are needed for a comfortable all in bluff??
Playing in a recently in a heads up on an early level 15/30 blinds...
The villain on the otherside of the table had pushed all in several times in level 1 all which I folded to.. even with AhJh after about 6 all ins in a row... I was losing my temper a bit but knew I could pick my time to call/shove wisely..
a few hands later, on SB i raised to 150 with KsJs which was instantly called.... the flop came Qs 10s 6d.... I checked giving myself to a free chance to catch a 9, Ace or Spade.. but he then raised it up to 150 which was semi expected, due to his extremely agressive nature...
450 in the pot..
I have 765 chips..
Villain has 785 left
and I put him on absolutly nothing although there is a sneeky suspicison i'm up against a big hand because he didn't push all in pre-flop.. even though i raised?
I therefore put him on some crazy hand like 10-8.... so I pushed all in thinking I have 21 outs and a 76% chance of drawing to win.. semi hoping he wasn't interested and taking 300 chips from his stack resulting in a 600 swing heads up..
He calls... It turns out he has Q7 so I only have 18 outs.. any A, K or 9 or any Spade
I hit a spade on the turn.. He's now dead and left with 170 chips.. perfect result for me
Note.. I wouldn't normally think about shoving all in at the earliest possible moment when i've only got K high and drawing.. but because of the fast blind structure and being up against a player who is shoving with any 2.. I couldnt give him an opportunity to steal if I missed on the turn as it would take my drawing percentage to around 60%.. which i think is too much of a coin toss to push or call.
What I want to know is... How many outs do you think is comfortable to push all in with if you think you may get called, when your only drawing? or is it ever comfortable to push all in when you could be behind but have over 50% chance of drawing to win??
Is it different if your against an aggressive player or tight player.. or do you just care about your own percentages?
Would you call an All in on the turn if you only had a 60% chance of drawing a winning card??
Personally I dont like pushing all in on a draw but giving myself 21 outs and a 76% chance of drawing to win seemed like a no-brainer to me, but anything less wouldn't be to comfortable in my opinion..
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