You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Sky Poker forums will be temporarily unavailable from 11pm Wednesday July 25th.
Sky Poker Forums is upgrading its look! Stay tuned for the big reveal!
10,000 to 1 flop anyone
Here is how you see a flop of those sort of odds falling.
Watch any hand that goes to a flop.
For the maths minded amongst you.
The odds on a 6 handed table for the 1st card on the flop is 1 in 40
The odds for the 2nd card is 1 in 39
The odds for the 3rd card is 1 in 38
By multiplying these together and then dividing by 6 (the number of orders they can appear) gives us odds of 9879 to 1. Apologies if my maths is slighly out here but is close enough as makes no odds.
So the next time you want to complain about a bad flop just remember every single flop is nearly 10,000 to 1 to appear.Even the good ones.
Comments
Otherwise the odds of a particular flop are impossible to know. The odds of a AdKdJd flop are (following your calculations because I can't be bothered checking them, lol) 9879:1 if we know we have a 40 card deck and we know that all those cards are in that 40 card deck. However, we don't know those cards are in that 40 card deck so the odds would be either 9879:1 OR 0.
You have to operate from a 52 card deck, of which the locations of only two are known.
Will deal with this now to get it over and done with.
In a 6 handed game there are 40 cards in the deck and this gives 9880 possible 3 card combinations for the flop. The hole cards are irrelevant here. This is just a comment about the odds of whatever the flop is being very unlikely.
So as i said each flop whatever it is is very nearly 10,000 to 1.
Given that there are 19600 flops, could you tell us which ones we wouldn't see in your 9880 combinations, given that we don't know the dead-cards in the deck?
If you said to me,
"Carl, you have AA and you're playing in a 6max game and we have AA. Is a '2c-7s-Kh-' flop, possible?"
The true answer is we don't know. The answer isn't 'Possible' or 'Impossible', it's neither. We can't know, because we have incomplete information.
If however, you said to me,
"Carl, still having AA, given a random distribution of dead cards, what are the ODDS of a '2c-7s-Kh', flop?"
I'd tell you one in 117600.
EDIT: (one in 19600, if we the position of the cards on the flop is deemed irrelavent.
i.e. 2c-7s-Kh = 7s-Kh-2c)
'But Carl, ahah! What about the times someone holds the '2c', then the odds because 0, right? Surely we still can't know for sure the true odds, because we don't know the dead cards."
That doesn't matter. One in 117600 takes that into consideration. Sometimes the '2c' will be dead, and the flop won't be possible at all. But the times it isn't dead, the chances of that flop now increase beyond 117600/1. We're taking an average of the times it is AND isn't.
Pretend you're rolling 2 die, and trying to roll a 12. [The roll is (for the most part) completely random, and we can draw partial information, making it a great example.]
Before the roll, given no information, we can say the chances of 6-6, is 1/36. Sometimes our first die will land on a 6, increasing out chances to 1/6. ~83.3% of the time though, it won't, and we'll be drawing dead to make our 12. Does if mean that we can't make accurate predictions on the likelihood of the roll, because sometimes (when given information that affect the odds), the outcome will be impossible? No, not at all. 1/6 times you'll increase to a 1/6 chance. 5/6 times you'll decrease to a 0/6 chance. Take the average, you've still got 1/36.
Put it this way. Given that there are 19600 possible flop combinations (assuming XYZ=YZX when X, Y and Z are one of 52 cards in the deck) when we hold 2 cards, you'd have to eliminate almost half to get to your number, because you're saying some flops are impossible due to dead cards. Which ones could you eliminate, seeing as we don't have any information to go on? You only get to your number once we take out the factoring dead cards. Seeing as we have no clue what they are, and given the RNG, there's always a chance that any one of the 20k-ish flops can fall, because of the random chance of those 10 dead cards.
You could choose a card in the deck by eliminating the other 51 one at a time until you're left with 1 card, but the odds of what that card is won't change, it's still 1 in 52.. You could get down to the final 2 cards after removing the other 50, and it would STILL be a 1 in 52 chance which card you eventually chose. The choice of you getting one of the remaining two is 50/50, sure. But the chance of those 2 cards being any of those 52 is still random. 25 in 26 times you'll be drawing dead. 1 in 26, you'll be a coin-flip away from choosing the correct card.
By assuming that the dead cards play a role here, we have to know how they affect the remaining flops, thus, having to know something about those dead cards. We don't, thus, it's still alllllllllllllllll random 'n' shiiiiiiiiiiit.
Back to bed I go. gg gn all
I have a full deck of cards, I take the top card and put it face down on the table. What are the chances that the card is the ace of spades?
I have a full deck of cards, this time I give 51 cards to someone else to hold, and put the other face down on the table. What are the chances that the card on the table is the ace of spades? If the other person sifts through their cards they will deduce it's either 0 or 1. From our perspective the chances are exactly the same as the first example.
I have no idea whether or not this thread was going to be interesteing or not and i have no idea whether or not it would reach its intended market.
But the things i do know is i stated a simple fact about a simple situation(maybe worded badly by me) and have had people arguing about things that i have not said or stated. This means that this thread is now only of interest to people who want to argue complex and unprovable maths which have nothing to do with the original post.
As i said i may have worded it badly which lead to the problem. But these sort of debates have appeal to about 4 people and serve no purpose. My target has been missed and now can never be hit.
Reasons to post again on this thread : none
Reasons to bother posting anything possibly interesting again: None
To be honest I didn't even understand the question ?
so we 10,000/1 to flop what ? Any flop we desire.
So if I want a flop of KhQh2c then it's 10,000/1
I don't think I would have a prop bet on that
How about the odds of a black flop ?
Or just a diamond flop ?
or AAA flop ?
or......................
idk
Having said that, even giving you the BoD (assuming no-one's taken anything away from the OP so far), that still wouldn't lead to the conclusion that there was no point in posting it in the first place. Maybe there are people yet to see this thread that would learn something from it. You've also sparked a conversation about probability and odds that I'm sure many people would enjoy discussing. Most importantly though, you have the opportunity to learn too based on the mistakes pointed out itt already.
The wild, rash, and baseless generalisations at the bottom of your comment does the forum, and yourself a great disservice. Ultimately, I'm dissapointed with that reaction, as I expected more from you. A civil and potentially rich conversation was attempted by people itt to give you an opportunity to address the fallacies in OP. Instead of debating those points, or even politely refusing based on grounds that this topic doesn't interest you, you've alienated and undermined those that wish to continue the disucssion.
"But these sort of debates have appeal to about 4 people and serve no purpose."
A defeatist attitude that shows a lack critical thinking among other things. This is also unreasonable.
- Not taking into account future viewers of this thread, or those that have already gained great satisfaction from your post, but have yet to explicitly state it.
- Having the opinion that one failed thread/idea should represent all threads/ideas. (by XXXXX)
- Praise/criticism in a thread by a particular author is worth generalising to all the future responses given in other threads they create. i.e. certain comments in one thread deterring you from posting in another.
"My target has been missed and now can never be hit. Reasons to post again on this thread : none Reasons to bother posting anything possibly interesting again: None"
A desire to avoid any further discussion (when your OP is inaccurate) is deeply disheartening.
A 'bit of fun' or not, the OP was factually incorrect. The tone or intent of the OP doesn't change that, whether you enjoy debating 'semantics' like this or not.
So what replies did you want exactly?
I have found it all quite interesting and find your response a bit weird. Surely if you post a maths fact you would expect to have it challenged.