Is my line ok here?

IDONKCALLU

Think c-betting here is standard with a up n down draw now i have picked up more outs on the turn with a flush draw is the shove the right move thoughts 

76735Small blind 20.0020.002650.00it4ch1Big blind 40.0060.001300.00 Your hole cards87   IDONKCALLURaise 120.00180.001765.00dylan07Call 120.00300.005575.00bowl299Fold    abramCall 120.00420.001125.0076735Fold    it4ch1Fold    Flop  5610   IDONKCALLUBet 280.00700.001485.00dylan07Call 280.00980.005295.00abramCall 280.001260.00845.00Turn  Q   IDONKCALLUAll-in 1485.002745.000.00

rancid

your going to have to see folds so much of the time to make this work.

If they not folding then the shove is pretty bad.

IDONKCALLU

so if i check ? then a guy bets half my stack what do i do i cant fold my hand has so many outs 

my thinking if i shove i take the initative they both fold i add 800 or so to my stack if i get called still not in bad shape 

i think this is the worse line i check then some 1 bets its gonna put them commited to my shove as it wnt be much extra so i have no fold equity 

rancid

with one card to come how much equity do you think you have and how much fold equity do you think you have.


Your talking like you must get your chips over the line and not to do so would be wroung.


Why would it be right to get your chips over the line as a dog.

IDONKCALLU

just dnt think i can ever fold this hand i am talking as if id like to get all my chips in the middle because thats what i want

i think it would be wrong not to get em in here 

rancid

In Response to Re: Is my line ok here?:

just dnt think i can ever fold this hand i am talking as if id like to get all my chips in the middle because thats what i want i think it would be wrong not to get em in here 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

you have 15 outs with 1 card to come with no fold equity.

1 in 3 you win

bearlyther

The jam on the turn is good and yes we do have some fold equity aswell.

IDONKCALLU

so u would check fold this rancid ? 

F_Ivanovic

^^ You're forgetting that Hero also picks up 1260 chips every time both villains fold.

When Hero shoves here and he gets 1 caller, he stands to gain 1346 chips (assuming he has 15 clean outs) which is about 180 chips lost. If he gets 2 callers then he stands to gain 1943 chips, so a profit of about 450 chips. (again assuming 15 clean outs)

When Hero shoves and gets no callers, he stands to gain 2745 chips, a profit of 1260 chips.

If Hero check/folds then his ev is 0. He can also get to showdown by checking, but for simplicity we'll ignore than option.

As you can see, when Hero shoves here then he's only losing chips (ev wise) when he gets 1 caller. The rest of the time he's making chips (ev wise) - and he's making substantially more in both of the other cases.

Lets assume 1 villain calls 80% of the time, 2 villains call 5% of the time and 15% of the time we get 2 folds. Then 80% of the time Hero will be losing 180 chips. 15% of the time he'll be gaining 1260 chips and 5% he'll be gaining 450 chips. 0.8* (-180) + 0.15* (1260) + 0.05* (450) = 67.5 chips.

(NB. I'm aware I didn't use the exact amounts in the calculations and just approximates, but shouldn't make too much of a difference)

As you can see, even when only 1 villain calls most of the time, we're still making 67.5 chips. For us to not profitably be shoving here, 1 villain has to call pretty much always.

rancid

Like I said I don't think both are ever folding

if you beleive that both would fold x% of the time then sure shove it


fwiw verus one vilian it's an auto shove


---Steve -

In game we always like to think we have fold equity so yeah everyone probably shoves it in including me.
Doesn't make it correct though if at least one calls 100% of the time.

grantorino

Merits of b/c v shove? I can see advantages to both

If we get it in v both villains we will have 6 outs a significant amount. We definitely can't assume 15 clean outs

F_Ivanovic

Really, you don't think both players are EVER folding? What do you think both players hand ranges are on the turn? Is that because you have a read on the two players involved, or just because you think they'll happily call with anything that they called on the flop with? How often do you think they'll both call? Because as I said if they both call our ev on the shove is most likely going to be positive, unless someone happens to have also turned a flush draw (not that likely)

I missed that one of the villains was pretty short, but still don't think you can do anything but shove here. Only reason I'd consider not shoving here is that I had a read that one/both of the villains were passive but also stationary. That way we can check and realise our equity. Other than that having to c/f here just seems really bad.