KK v AA

CraigSG1

Can this be for real? I understand about variance but this is too much surely. 5 Weeks ago I lost 3 times in a very short space of times KK v AA allin pre. I decided to keep a count and since then this has happened.

With KK.   Dealt 29 times.  THIRTEEN TIMES lost v AA. 2x lost v AQ aipf for good measure, lost another two calling allins and opponent hitting sets. Four times opponent hitting draws when i have priced them out. 

AA v KK.  Dealt AA 21 times. 2x v KK and lost both, not to mention first time to knock me out a big tourny in 7th when had they held I would have been chip leader with 6 left and a nice juicy bounty. 2nd time again for a big pot and a big bounty.

Yea I know people will say unlucky but its so frustrating, especially the only times its been the other way around ive lost them too for important pots. 

GaryQQQ

Painful, but clusters of bad luck are standard and this is too small a sample to mean anything.

These days I've learned to consider AA v KK (in shallow-stacked situations) as a flip.

Why a flip? Well, all the chips are going in no matter what. The flip occurs when the deck is shuffled; you have a 50% chance of being the guy who picks up AA, a 50% chance of being the guy who picks up KK.

What happens after that is in the hands of the poker gods. Over tens of thousands of hands the stats will regress to the mean; You will be the guy with AA 50% of the time, you will the guy with KK 50% of the time. Whoever holds the AA will win 82% of the pots, whoever holds KK 18% of the pots. ie It all evens out eventually.

grantorino

Are you sure those numbers are accurate. You are including everytime you got dealt KK even when everyone else folded ?

If so the odds of running into AA ( as a pocket pair) 13 times out of 29 are incredibly small. Not sure i could accept it as just variance

devonfish5

I was playing a couple of nights ago,and saw KK V AA aipf twice in about 3 minutes,the AA held both times,so it's fairly common to see.
the way GaryQQQ has described it is very good...just treat it as a 50/50 flip,which it is...over time.

the way I now look at it is KK & AA are just 1 pair and it looks good pre-flop but that doesn't matter...
if you play the hand out(either by going aipf or through the streets,)it's still only 1 pair at the end of the hand most times,and your opponent/opponents are likely to improve a good percentage of the time,or so it seems   

I now play AA & KK  strong pre-flop,and after that...well it's in the hand of the gods...most of the time.
I am happy going aipf with AA... obviously.
with KK I vary it,sometimes I do sometimes I just raise big and take it from there.maybe you could do the same,or something similar.  you don't have to get attached to them...every time....I don't.

ps; I had AA aipf the other night v 10 10 & 33 ... yeah you guessed it, flop 10 3 X xx  lol (just not fair this game 

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dev

CraigSG1

In Response to Re: KK v AA:

Are you sure those numbers are accurate. You are including everytime you got dealt KK even when everyone else folded ? If so the odds of running into AA ( as a pocket pair) 13 times out of 29 are incredibly small. Not sure i could accept it as just variance
Posted by grantorino

I promise you this is correct, and I am including everytime I have got KK (which I just cant seem to win regulary with for whatever reason) and thats why it is really annoying me. I understand variance and such but its still frustrating. Even more so that not only have i lost the only other times ive had AA v KK but they where both in big important pots. You would also expect I would win at least once in 13 times but havent.

I understand the other poster too, I am very aware that its only one pair and never get attached post flop. Ive folded AA n KK plenty of times post flop,turn and river. I try and not let previous hands affect my next hand buy everytime i get KK im just expecting to run into AA even though im dominating a lot of other hands pre.