Omaha i have the nuts on the turn but is it + ev to get all my chips in here

IDONKCALLU

Am i right to get all my chips in here on the turn i know the opponent could easily have a set here and cover my draws meaning 2 higher diamonds with this in mind am i right to get my chips in here and dodge alot of outs or just flat call the raise on the turn and hope river bricks  thoughts please ? IDONKCALLUSmall blind £0.10£0.10£35.21F_IvanovicBig blind £0.20£0.30£54.06 Your hole cards87610   superjoFold    JokerMan89Call £0.20£0.50£15.41sha87Raise £0.80£1.30£22.59IDONKCALLUCall £0.70£2.00£34.51F_IvanovicFold    JokerMan89Call £0.60£2.60£14.81Flop  795   IDONKCALLUCheck    JokerMan89Check    sha87Check    Turn  J   IDONKCALLUBet £2.00£4.60£32.51JokerMan89Call £2.00£6.60£12.81sha87Raise £6.30£12.90£16.29IDONKCALLURaise £21.50£34.40£11.01JokerMan89Fold    sha87All-in £16.29£50.69£0.00

IDONKCALLU

this is not a brag its a serious question u could say a leak in my game i didnt know what to do on the turn i know i have loads of outs to dodge 

Lambert180

Don't know a huge amount about PLO but it seems like a super easy GII spot to me.

PLO is a drawing game where you're going to get your value on the flop and turn where people will still pay for draws. If you wait for a brick river, you might know 'know' if you're ahead or not and save yourself money on bad rivers but you'll lose the chance to get paid by all them draws (when they miss) 100% of the time.

I know you love pot control and small ball poker but I just don't think you can play PLO in a low variance way like you want to. It's a high variance game and you gotta embrace that or not play it imo.

IDONKCALLU

whats the percentage of me winning if opponent has a set and 2 higher diamonds ?

Lambert180

Well if he has say 99A4dd

He has....

1 out to Quads
8 outs to a FH (3 jacks, 3 fives and 2 sevens)
5 outs to a flush at best (there are 2 on board, 2 in our hand and must be AT LEAST 2 in his hand, but then you have to discount 9d cos it's included in quads and the 7d cos it's included in his FH outs).... (unless one of his 9s was a diamond obv lol)

So with 1 street to come and 14 outs, one opponent will have about 28% of getting there but...

1) That's like absolute worst case scenario, you don't know they won't get it in with just NFD or just top set or whatever.
2) Some of the time they may fold

Couldnt you have just added up the outs and worked this out yourself tho

DeucesLive

lol come on, in omaha that's nowhere near the worst case. The worst case is he has the straight NOW, and outs to beat you as well. As in say, 810KQ with two diamonds, one of which is the K or Q. Now he's drawing to any K or Q for a bigger straight, any diamond to beat you, and worst case scenario he ties you anyway. 

Now I'm not an omaha player, so wait for Talon to give his input, but this is far from a no-brainer IMO. You don't want to get all your chips in with the temporary nuts, because it's called the temporary nuts for a reason- SO many rivers change it. You have very few redraws- admittedly you have the diamond redraw which he doesn't necessarily counterfeit, but that's all- it's not a lock. He could have you so badly dominated, and his willingness to get chips in shows that.

Calling and hoping for river to brick isn't necessarily the best play either though, because if it bricks and he hasn't got the straight, you're getting nothing more out of him. If he does have the straight, you'll split it anyway. If one of the million danger cards come down, you're in no man's land. The decision is on the turn IMO, and it's my inability to work out just what kind of realistic range you can put him on that means I don't play cash omaha. Unlike holdem, you have to consider the very real possibility of someone having the current nuts, AND redraws to a better hand- making laying down the nuts an actual consideration. Something I'd never do in holdem of course.

Probably laying it down is bad, but I wouldn't get too attached to it just because it's currently the best hand, that's holdem thinking.

IDONKCALLU

thanks for ya post deauces live this is why i posted it wasnt a brag at all coz i wasnt sure to get it in on the turn knowing the opponent still could have same hand and tons of outs to hit 

F_Ivanovic

I remember this hand, and I can say it's absolutely fine to get the money in here on the turn. There are plenty of situations in omaha where getting it in with the nuts can be a bad idea but in this situation it's more than fine. Being up against the nuts + better diamond redraw is going to happen so rarely that it's not worth thinking about when we're not that deep at all. Even in the worst case scenario, you'll only lose 14% of the time or so.

Rest of the time you're going to be up against sets/2pair with flush draws, straights w/noredraws/different redraws. You could even be against a  straight and a worse diamond flush draw.