Did I make the right decision?

ladyalbion

Hey guys, this is my first forum post and I'm fairly new to poker so be gentle with me

Micro stakes cash game, I am in mid position and hole cards AdQh.  One limper before me, I raise to 4BB, both the button and the limper call.

Flop comes Kd Ah Qd.

The original limper bets 4BB in front of me.  I raise 3x his bet.  Then the guy on the button shoves all in for around 55BB.  The limper folds, and I have a decision.  I have him covered but not by much.

Things I consider - this guy has been playing tight.  I think its very unlikely he's shoving with just an A.  If he has AA, KK or QQ I'd expect him to have raised me pre-flop but he could be slow playing it.  Most likely I'm putting him on J10 having just made a straight, or AKo.  The one hand that I can see shoving there that I beat is KQ, but all the others, I'm losing.

In the end I fold.  Was that too tight a fold?  I was so tempted to call, but I just thought the odds of a tight player shoving there with something less than I had were really unlikely.

DeucesLive

yeah... hmm. I think it's a tight fold, but maybe a good one. It's certainly incredibly difficult for anyone to lay down 2 pair on a flop, especially when it's not monotone. 

I kind of doubt he has AA/KK/QQ after weak preflop play- it's not probable he plays a massive hand so passively pre, then on the flop suddenly gets super aggro when he's hit the flop so hard. AK is possible I guess, but again you'd expect him to go to war pre, it's not consistent. KQ and J10 are the most likely. 

If he has J10, you're drawing to 6 outs. If he has KQ, he's drawing to 2 outs. Then there's a marginal chance he's playing a hand like AJ/A10, which has hit the board pretty hard too. Probably about the same chance of that as there is of him having flopped a set or having AK. 

I'd say your equity in the hand is somewhere around 40-45%- on balance his range is slightly stronger than yours, but not much. There's around 80bbs in the pot, and it costs you 40 to call, so if you think you're ahead 33% of the time, it's a good call. As played, I think you're ahead more than 33% of the time, unless you have a real solid read that he's tight- and you'd need to play with them over multiple sessions to know that. Just the fact he hasn't played many hands doesn't mean anything, he could have been card dead and suddenly got desperate to get some action.

ladyalbion

Thanks, understanding what odds I have to call in situations like this is definitely something I need to work on!  I didn't really consider him having AJ or A10 but looking back I can see him shoving to protect top pair plus a gutshot. If I had thought about that I'd probably have made the call.