20NL Mastercash - Flopped Nuts, Puke River

Lambert180

This might seem a bit 'bby' but there's a proper question in there. I'm leaving in the result but it's pretty obvious imo what I'm gonna be shown.

From the preflop action, I've narrowed villians's range down to pretty much JJ+ and AKs (maybe TT). Obv me having AKs myself reduces the chances of AA/KK/AK.

I flop the world, WAL.

1) Do we wanna ship turn to get him to commit now as he will happily do with all sets and prob KK/AA or is my sizing fine? Scare cards may come on river but he may feel like he can't fold at that stage anyway (like I did lol)

2) Can we just puke and fold the river even with the ridic odds we're getting or do we just have to hope he has KK/AA and sigh call it off. I was SO close to folding cos was so sure it was a house

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
olsen09	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£12.42
90six90	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£43.24
	Your hole cards	A K
X	Raise		£1.00	£1.30	£34.67
Lambert180	Raise		£2.60	£3.90	£41.57
pg123	Fold
APOLLO41	Fold
olsen09	Fold
90six90	Fold
X	Raise		£4.80	£8.70	£29.87
Lambert180	Call		£3.20	£11.90	£38.37
Flop
		10 Q J
X	Check
Lambert180	Bet		£5.20	£17.10	£33.17
X	Call		£5.20	£22.30	£24.67
Turn
		3
X	Check
Lambert180	Bet		£12.80	£35.10	£20.37
X	Call		£12.80	£47.90	£11.87
River
		10
X	All-in		£11.87	£59.77	£0.00
Lambert180	Call		£11.87	£71.64	£8.50
X	Show	Q Q
Lambert180	Show	A K
X	Win	Full House, Queens and 10s	£69.84		£69.84

Lambert180

I normally go smaller postflop in 4bet pots but given the range I have for villian, I should probably go bigger on the flop just cos I know he basically never has a hand he will fold to 1 bet

craigcu12

if you were confident enough preflop that he is only going to do a that reraise with hands AKs and 1010-AA, what you could be able to already rule out the hand KK because he doesn't know you have the AK you could have AQs or KQs plus if he did get a reraise he still does have the straight draw.

if he had AA and decided to just check the flop again it would beg the question what hands does he think you would be holding making it too dangerous to cbet he can't be putting you on 2 pair because if he expects you to still possibly hold QJ then he should be expecting you to call with AQ and KQ which he is beating so he might hold AA but he shows the signs of a villain worried you hand the set or AK and if he is so scared on the flop and turn about them that 10h is the worst of cards he should be using as a bluff.

so although on the flop and turn AA are still possible when the 10h comes on the river the last thing you would think jams that river is AA

so it leave his range as either AK or a set and the last thing you(the villain) would want to do with AK on a board as draw heavy and set potential is to just call all the way so I would say it was capable of being folded but TBH you should not have even got to the river with so chips remaining most would expect this to have gone in on the turn.
UL m8

gazza127

I bet more on the flop... circa £7.50-£8 to set up a jam on the turn.  Still don't think he's folding though... just one of those spots.

As played its such a difficult river.  It really depends what oppos range of 4 betting is and whether he 4 bets often when he's 3 bet when he's out of position.  I probably find the call here most of the time just to take notes on villain and what their 4 bet range includes and how they play a strong/substandard hand post flop... although I think a lot of the time you are behind as the FH and the flush came in, especially as you don't hold the A or K of hearts...  Difficult fold with the odds given, but if you play oppo a lot £11 into a £60 pot is probably worth the call just for info.  If you've got notes on oppo that say otherwise then id fold/call respectively.

BorinLoner

Villain 5x's from UTG, so is this his default raise size? Does his position and sizing indicate he's holding a premium hand? If so do we need to consider whether it's a good situation to 3-bet? Player dependent, so you'll have to tell me.

Anyway, I think it's definitely reasonable to be giving him a super-narrow range after the 5x and 4-bet. Perhaps we can fold here but that again begs the question of whether we should be 3-betting.

Post flop, we think he ha a very strong range and it's a super-wet board. I think we do need to bet a little bigger just to set up the shove on the turn. We won't be playing too many rivers in 4-bet pots on boards like this, so I wouldn't worry about balancing, etc. We're always going to have a monster here. I'd also doubt that villain is giving up the betting lead just to fold the hand and, if he is, he's probably been 4-betting with junk and won't put any more in anyway.

So bet flop a little bigger, and jam turn for less than full-pot. Easy game...


On the river, as played, I think we perhaps can find a fold. What are the chances that our opponent is weak here? Zero. What are the chances that opponent is value betting KK or AA on this sopping wet board?... probably less than the 17% we'd need from him.

I think it's probably a fold on the river, in the cold light of day. I think most people are spite-calling though and it's probably not worth worrying about these spots. I suppose it might be player dependent...

Get it in before the river, though.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: 20NL Mastercash - Flopped Nuts, Puke River:

I bet more on the flop... circa £7.50-£8 to set up a jam on the turn.  Still don't think he's folding though... just one of those spots. As played its such a difficult river.  It really depends what oppos range of 4 betting is and whether he 4 bets often when he's 3 bet when he's out of position.  I probably find the call here most of the time just to take notes on villain and what their 4 bet range includes and how they play a strong/substandard hand post flop... although I think a lot of the time you are behind as the FH and the flush came in, especially as you don't hold the A or K of hearts...  Difficult fold with the odds given, but if you play oppo a lot £11 into a £60 pot is probably worth the call just for info.  If you've got notes on oppo that say otherwise then id fold/call respectively.
Posted by gazza127

Of course, we don't want our opponent to fold, do we Gazza? We're not playing results.

Also, when our opponent shoves the river I don't think we need to call to take a note. We pretty much know by this stage that he's strong. Okay, there might be the odd person in a thousand making a super-spewy bluff but no reasonable player would expect a fold on this river, given the action.

4-bet pre-flop, check-call, check-call, jam tiny on this paired, flushing board. That's not a bluffy line. We know he's got to be big.