Satellite, close to bubble, is AQ a fold or a push?

GaryQQQ

I rarely play in satellites and found this a tough spot. In any other sort of MTT it's and insta-shove obviously, but what is the correct play here guys?

This is a ME semi, 24 seats are awarded, 25th place gets £26.40. At the start of this hand I'm 21st/28.

The table has been playing tight and most players are already stalling to the max when I pick-up AQo UTG, though note this is a 5-handed table, so it's the same as UTG+1 at a 6-handed table. The HH doesn't show my stack size, but I believe it was 5.4K and that two of my four opponents had me covered.

Just picking up the blinds here will probably be enough to lock-up a seat as there are some very shallow stacks at other tables. Do I push? Or should I fold and nit it up and wait for others to bust?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
KNico	Small blind		600.00	600.00	11390.00
BETY1TIME	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	3930.00
	Your hole cards	Q A

IDONKCALLU

fold and time out everyhand n get ya seat

Lambert180

I think it's a shove.

We need 4 people to bust to get a seat, we only have 4xBB and are about to pay 1.5xBB in the next 2 hands. We can't rely on 4 people busting very soon cos everyone will be palying tight and unless anyone has a really big stack everyone is gonna be very reluctant to call your shove unless they have a monster.

calcalfold

In Response to Re: Satellite, close to bubble, is AQ a fold or a push?:

fold and time out everyhand n get ya seat
Posted by IDONKCALLU

A vote for this

craigcu12

shove

IDONKCALLU

ya 21st and 28 left and top 24 gets a seat 25th gets cash   if ya 25th or summit shove but ya 21st fold ya way there eaze game

Lambert180

Yeah 21st with 4xBB lol. Yes we only need 1 chip to get through blah blah BUT if we fold, in 2 hands we'll have 2.5xBB, where dya think we'll be then, 25th out of 28?

Do you think 4 people will bust in the next 2 hands? Unlikely imo given how nitty people are round the bubble of a satellite.

Then we go with the timing down plan and blinds go up so we have what? 1xBB? Then we're sat there praying we can win an all-in when we're going to be forced all-in with ATC cos we're 5handed and it's unlikely the bubble ends in the following 3 hands?

Take the shove now imo cos people will be SO tight calling round the bubble of a sat, it's super unlucky if someone has QQ+ or AK, even more so on a 5handed table.

jams88

I shove because the blinds are about to pass through you. Funnily enough i tihnk this is a fold in the CO or bt but a shove as you are about to see the blinds whcih will come round fairly regular if you table is 5 handed. This is realistically the best hand you will pick up for awhile shove it in and hope to get it through. Once we have paid the blinds we can start to think about locking up depending on our positioning then

RLT16

i would also shove here, being so close to the bubble its likely the others on your table are quite happy to just collect there seat, there going to be folding a wide range of hands to any bet this close to the bubble

GaryQQQ

Thanks guys.

FWIW I adopted IDCU's approach and folded. Next hand I picked up 63o on the BB and was immediately regretting the fold, however I was mighty pleased to get a walk. I folded the SB and had my seat in the bag before the blinds came around again.

hhyftrftdr

Gotta ship this all day long in these circumstances - AQ, 5 handed, approaching bubble, first in.

Though I wouldn't call an all in with it (usually).