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Variance?
Being a mere poker mortal i'm wondering if Variance, especially in cash, will always make me be a losing playing?
Comments
You could give Phil Ivey 10 BIs to play cash and he might go busto. That's poker.
Give a good winning player 50BIs though and it's probably not gonna happen.
Chances are if you stick to low stakes on here and you go through 30 BIs, it's probably not variance that's to blame.
If you are playing 2p/4p a buy in (BI) will = £4 so in lamberts example 50BI's would = a £200 BR (Bankroll) to play that limit and survive the variance swings without going bust.
1 of the 1st things that I learnt from the community as a new player here was effective BRM (bankroll management) and as a result I haven't deposited for 14 months
That's not to say I am a great player, got a bit lucky early on and have stuck to rigid BRM while I continue to try and improve my game
GL at the tables
They're 2 separate issues.
Variance probably the least of your problems. And it's not specific to you. Everyone who plays has to deal with it everytime they play at whatever level.
Not sure if it's even a 'problem' ?
You could be experiencing positive variance yet still losing.
Sort out your game & brm (2nd 1 is easy).
I've heard a lot about BRM, but not really looked into it as I've never had a problem really. However I would be interested to know how your BRM works? If you want to share that is :-)
Gary is a reg on here and also a legend with advice on strict BRM, I would advocate reading the diary that charts his progress. He started it at the beginning of this year and is now close to £700
Always sceptical posting on a thread about variance because most people do not look at variance the right way. They only see it as a word to explain periods of bad luck. Only Dohhhhh on this thread has even mentioned the other side of variance.
We all have periods of time when our big hands get beat and we cant hit a draw to save our lives. But also we all have the times when we hit sets more frequently than normal or all our draws get there. These are both variance. This is the luck aspect of the game that we can not avoid.
This is when the skill comes into play. The skill comes when we win the most possible when it has gone our way and lose the minimum when things go wrong. This is how we make money at the tables.
We should never focus on the times when the poker gods are against us and we should not mistake the times when they are on our side as being a sign of our brilliance. These times happen and we should not even waste time thinking about them. Time is better spent looking at appropriate hands and saying how could i have won more or how could i have lost less.
You do not need to deposit £200 to play 2p/4p.
Starting with £40 is plenty
How do you know if you're doing well because of variance or if you're doing well because you're good?
I just won my first MTT on SkyPoker - and while I am using reasoning and logic in every hand I play - I'm not entirely sure if I can call myself a good player yet or if I'm just doing well due to variance. I did get lucky during my MTT win, but surely anyone who wins an MTT will need to get lucky at some point?
One tournament win on its own may suggest variance, but I did also place 20th in a "mini" event a few days ago too - not sure if that changes things haha?
Or just get coolered KK v AA pre
Or get it in on the flop with top set V a FD and they get there?
Or get middle set into top set
That's why BRM is important, cos being the best isn't enough if you can't afford to take the variance.
To understand variance is very simple...
you flip a coin and the probability is 50/50
so if you flip a coin 10 times what is the expected result
over the course of 10 flips it could be 6/4, 7/3,8/2 - you can not control the short term variance of the flip
--
The long term result is 50/50, and if you flip 100,000 times you will come close to a 50/50 result.
--
Example 1..
You could take a bad player and they could win short term even though they are getting it in bad or 50/50.
Eventually the bad player will go broke
Example 2..
Take a good player who gets it in good or 50/50, they could lose in the short term but in the longterm they will win
--
But you need to understand the short term in varaince can be 2 weeks or 12 weeks or even longer.
sum up...
You can never be 100% guarenteed to win a hand in poker unless you have a nut hand.
It's a 2% chance because that's exatcly what it is, and it will happen.
A lot of people just don't understand varaince in poker and they quit.
I assume in your time playing you must have lost 10 BIs in a row at some point, right?
I've been playing 6 months now so I know a thing or two about poker. I've probably played more hands than Ivey thanks to the new multi-table option on Sky. I lose 10-20 buy-ins some days, so I know variance when I see it. If I can lose then so can Ivey!
I think for cash games you should have at least 500 full buy-ins before moving up, this way if you have a 300 bi downswing it's no big deal and you can still load up 24 tables easily without having to play short stacked.
Trust me when I say 10bi is not enough, even if you can read timing tells and stuff. Phil Ivey may be good, but he's no better than Tom Dwan who lost millions of his roll to Isildur. And Isildur is no better than me according to the Sky regs I play with at 400nl every day.
Everyone will go bust with 100bi never mind 10. I lost 60bi this month already though I am just a recreational player so maybe it doesn't count. Still think I need 500 bi for the year though. Luckily I am super rich and can afford to play the biggest games even when running bad.