HELP NEEDED WITH MATHS

bludreid11

i dont know the maths involved with draws.
if i have 4 to the flush on the flop, whats my chances of making it with 2 then 1 cards to go.?
if i have an up and down str8 draw on the flop then 1 to go
or if i have a gut shot on the flop etc.
and if i have 4 to the flush on the flop, do i discount some outs incase others may have some cards of the suit i need ??

SJspanky1

All these stats are available on t'net.

Google is your friend.

robbie1992

its your number of outs on the flop x4 for the percentage your hit by the river
and number of outs on the turn x2 for the percentage your hit by the river.

FlashFlush

OK, well to start off you obviously need to know there are 52 cards in the deck (13 of each suit). If you have 4 to the flush on the flop, then there must only be 9 of that suit left. You DO NOT take folded cards out of the odds, because you have no idea what they are. So with the 3 cards on the flop + the 2 in your hand you have to imagine there are still 47 cards in the deck. So your chances of hitting 1 of those 9 cards is 9 in 47 - Pretty much 5/1 or 20%. I can't remember which way it is with 2 cards to come, whether you double the odds or double the outs, but either way there won't be much difference. So lets call it 40% chance of hitting if you see the turn and river. Slightly off topic, but if you are the one betting then you also increase your chance of winning the hand because they can fold, which obviously won't happen if you are just check/calling.

That's the basic structure of how to work it out, so use the same example for an up and down straight draw. Say you have 4,5 and the flop is 3,6,K (no flush draws) then you can hit 4 7's or 4 2's (8 cards), so again there are 47 cards in the deck with 8 to hit, so 47 to 8 (basically 6/1 or 16-17% (Again double that if you want to know turn and river combined).

Hope that helps.

Lambert180

Roughly speaking, multiply your outs by 2 if you want the odds of hitting on the next card, or by 4 if you want the odds of hitting it by the river with 2 cards to come.

So if you have a flush draw, there are 9 remaining cards to make a flush...

On the flop you have 2 cards to come so you multiply 9 by 4 = 36%

If it's the turn so only 1 card to come OR it's the flop but you wanna know the odds of hitting it on the next card then you multiply by 2 so about 18%

Each 'out' or card in the deck is about 2% to come on the next card so just count your outs and you're off. This is why missing your set on the flop and thinking 'oh, I'll just call 1 bet' is so bad cos you have 2 outs and so only like 4% chance of making your set on the turn when you call that flop bet.

bludreid11

been a great help. a big thanks to all.
i dont think it will make me any better but, it certainly helps with my decision making.
once again  thank you