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nl20 QQ raised on turn
vill is reg at nl20
anyone feel like folding
| rancid | Small blind | £0.10 | £0.10 | £29.99 | |
| x | Big blind | £0.20 | £0.30 | £41.03 | |
| Lambert180 | Sit out | ||||
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| ACEGOONER | Fold | ||||
| got2fish23 | Raise | £0.80 | £1.10 | £23.80 | |
| rancid | Raise | £2.00 | £3.10 | £27.99 | |
| x | Call | £1.90 | £5.00 | £39.13 | |
| got2fish23 | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||
| rancid | Bet | £3.00 | £8.00 | £24.99 | |
| x | Call | £3.00 | £11.00 | £36.13 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| rancid | Bet | £7.60 | £18.60 | £17.39 | |
| x | All-in | £36.13 | £54.73 | £0.00 | |
| rancid | |||||
Comments
Don't know many (any?) 20NL regs that would ship here with a worse 1pr or a str8/flush draw
probs only one hand !
Qx10h
Qh10x
:S
KhJh
i think its a fold also- villan has turned our hand into a bluffcatcher given how strong a line we've taken ..ie 3bet pre, bet flop, bet turn and now villan jams all-in- he shouldnt be doin this with anything worse for value- and when we dont beat his value range but do beat his bluffs we should fold the worst part of our value range- since he's bet about £18 to win £18- we need to fold more than half our hands and since we shouldnt have too many bluffs here we should also have to fold some of our bluff catchers also -- and QQ sits near the bottom of our value range
, we have a bluff catcher therfore given the line of call 3bet call, jam- villans has turned every hand in our range thats not a flush into a 'bluff catcher'...
all this changes when the villan bluffs too much or too little however..
+1
TT with a heart?
8h10h
ya folding QQ/KK/AA
any nits folding sets ?
is vill not raising flop with sets ?
Obviously not folding a set because that's much higher up in our turn value betting range + if we are behind we have outs + if we're not behind villain has less outs. (can only hit a flush/straight) Also we have QQ/KK/AA with a heart that we can call with.
we also have AhJx, KhJx
if we have Qh does anyone call
well you could say because u have the Ah, they not shoving with NFD + pr so a pretty good reason to fold.
idk, think you need good reads to call versus vill shoving range
yh as above think we need good reads to call even w/KxKh
As to QQ-AA being the same hand well again this depends on what villain's range for shoving the turn is. If he's shoving turn with TT, QQ-AA with a heart then we might want to fold our QQ (since we beat his TT, but lose to KK and AA) but definitely be calling our AA since now we beat his TT, QQ & KK.
All villains bluff hands have a heart in pretty much so we can definitely be calling off our best pairs with a heart in if we think villain is shoving widely enough.
OK I agree with you on QQ-AA (w/o a heart) playing exactly the same in this situation - I do think villain will be flatting some QQ-AA preflop instead of 4betting but think all 3 hands are pure bluff catchers whereby villain isn't shoving worse for value.
I'm curious though what hands sit at the higher end of our value range here? The only set we can have is JJ (with Jh) and we have maybe 4 combos of flushes? (AhKh, AhQh + 2 random flush hands we 3bet bluffed with pre) So that's 6 combos of better hands than AAh If we're betting QQ without the Qh for value then surely only having 6 combination of hands to call with isn't enough hands in our calling range to make villain indifferent to bluffing.
Also of course having a FD with our OP is relevant because it means we have more equity against villains shoving range. Unfortunately don't have pokerstove at hand but if we give villain a range of some sets, some pair + heart/straight + heart, Ahx & some made flushes and then we put in QQ, KK, AA (with and w/o hearts) seperately you can easily see that having a pair with a FD will give us higher equity in the hand. And that a higher pair as well with a FD might give us some increased equity (eg. With the Ah we can outdraw all of his flushes but with the Qh we might be drawing dead to his Kh or Ah flushes) - We can muddle about with villains range and see what his range needs to be for calling with our different OP+h to be correct.
lets agree to disagree that u still think that your cut off to calling would be QQ=fold and KK with FD and higher hands is a call- i still think this is the incorrect cut off point and for the incorrect reasons given the action and price etc
When villain goes all in we need to win the pot at least 28.5% of the time to make calling correct. Lets assume we have AAh. If we're up against a set every time then we have 22.73% equity and folding would be correct. If we're up against a flush we have around 14% at aguess (some FD's are SFD's otherwise it would be 15.91%) - against villains actual holding we would have only 11.36%. But we are assuming here that villain has some bluffs in his range. If he has JsTh we have a massive 84.09% to win the hand. Against QhTc/QcTh we have 86.36%. Lets assume he has 6 combos of sets (1 JJ, 3 99 and 2 77) and 4 combos of made flushes (KhTh, Th8h, KhJh, 5h6h) So 10 combo of hands where we have less than the required equity - avg would be about 18.5% at a guess.
Then we start adding in his bluff combos where our equity is 85%... just 3 combos and that equity we have would rapidly increase from 18.5% to possibly the equity we need to call. Also I've just now realised that villains value range might be wider and he may have some 79 or J9 hands. Actually J9 can be somewhat discounted since only Jh9x calls flop but only suited J9 calls pre. So he could have maybe 3 combos of 2 pair hands which we have 36.36% equity with our AAh making it a profitable call vs these hands.
Anyway the point is that we can definitely "Bluff catch" with AAh because the equity needed is there if villain is bluffing wide enough (3/4 combos of bluffs isn't even unreasonably wide)
vill never has pure bluffs
worse hand is AhJx
if we have AhAx as a bluff catcher with good get there equity verus made hands
The fact we have Ah takes away all semi bluffs from vill range leaving just made sets and made flushes.
Have not done the math but I am sure it's putting us in a dog spot
-
i don't think we can range vill wide enough to bluff catch with Ah or Kh.
I know that villain never has pure bluffs but they could have more than just AhJx... such as TTh, QQh, KKh. (as I said before I think villain will flat these hands pre) Especially if he knows your v-betting as wide as QQ with no heart OTT then shoving with TTh or JTh as a bluff makes perfect sense to do.
Not double checking but 99% sure my maths is correct and we need 28.5%.
I know that I'm making assumptions about villains range but when you have no reads that's what you do - make assumptions about villains range based on the tendancies of regs at that level. You can turn to GTO as well but to do that you still need to make some assumptions on what a reg will do otherwise there is just no way you can apply GTO.
I'm interested to hear what you think a sensible range would be if you think my range is way off. Especially given that earlier in the thread you said you disliked villains shove with Th8h and also that any hand of ours that isn't a flush is now a bluff catcher. So if you don't think villain should be shoving Th8h, what hands should he be shoving with?
And also interested in what theory dictates we should be calling with here then if not a hand like AhAx which is near the top of the hands we are betting on the turn (earlier you said theory dictates we need to call 50% of the hands we bet for villain to not have a profitable shove with ATC OTT) - I mean are we only calling with AhKh, AhQh and JJh? We don't want to be b/calling with a low flush given what you think villains tight range is because with a low flush we will be drawing dead a huge % of the time.