NL4 - Raise This River?

BorinLoner

Sooo...

I didn't give this hand a second thought at the time. I was enjoying some super run good this week so it was just another one I took down. I should have raised bigger on the turn, more like £1, to get stacks in on the river but that's not really the point here.

Villain is pretty regular NL4 fare: Loose, generally passive pre-flop except with big hands. I've not seen many showdowns with him because he check-folds every time he misses and check-calls every time he hits. So I've been one-and-done'ing (is that a phrase?) against him with lots of bluffs.

Anyway, on this river with his min-bet line I now think it's pretty unlikely he has me beaten. At the time I was just relieved he didn't smash the pot button, so I called quite quickly. Now I think it's unlikely that he bets this size with a house and that he probably calls a raise with all his Ax hands. Obviously he'll have Kx too a fair amount but that doesn't seem enormously important, beyond rake snatching more pennies from me.

I just want people to agree with me that I missed value and therefore am a numpty. Raise-fold here, yes?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Cassio	Sit out
Iago	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£1.30
Othello	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£5.91
	Your hole cards	10 K
BorinLoner	Raise		£0.12	£0.18	£4.00
Iago	Fold
Othello	Call		£0.08	£0.26	£5.83
Flop
		A Q A
Othello	Bet		£0.04	£0.30	£5.79
BorinLoner	Raise		£0.24	£0.54	£3.76
Othello	Call		£0.20	£0.74	£5.59
Turn
		J
Othello	Bet		£0.04	£0.78	£5.55
BorinLoner	Raise		£0.72	£1.50	£3.04
Othello	Call		£0.68	£2.18	£4.87
River
		10
Othello	Bet		£0.04	£2.22	£4.83
BorinLoner	Call		£0.04	£2.26	£3.00

BorinLoner

I'm raising the flop in the belief that the min-donk-bet isn't likely to be particularly strong. To be honest, I don't remember if this particular opponent had been min-donking much because it was a couple of days ago.

The raise must have meant that I felt he'd donk with air a fair amount or could just fold his weaker Qx hands. Obviously he probably calls with draws but my King is beating most of those anyway. I'm not of the idea that "he min-donked so I must raise".

jams88

I think flatting is ok as he has played this line on all streets and could be hoping that your going to raises him again and he can shove his houses. You can raise again but what do we do if he shoves?

I think i flat but that doesn't mean its the right play though

SHANXTA

i wouldn't worry about raise folding, just ship it

jugglegeek

Most times the min donk is weakness, however some players do it with the nuts so you have to be carful. The standard line for the "I have the nuts therefore I min-bet" fish is to raise/shove the moment you show interest. Raising the flop and the turn (which completes a straight) goes beyond showing interest. Bet-call pot here on the river for value. Villian probably has diamonds but could be as strong as an Ax.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: NL4 - Raise This River?:

i wouldn't worry about raise folding, just ship it
Posted by SHANXTA

Shipping is an overbet (although a small one) but I don't think villain will look us up with enough worse hands if we ship. If we raise to £0.80 though he can definitely look us up with Ax hands. If he shoves it's an easy fold.

edit: Also the "min-bets are weakness but some players do it with the nuts" is not a reason to not bet/raise. It's like saying "checks are often weakness but some players check with the nuts" - doesn't mean we don't bet if we think vs their entire range we can get value from them. If he shows agression after min-betting - that is the time to listen to them and believe they have a strong hand.

Rich_Poor

First I a rubbish cash player but heres my thoughts.

Well as you said in your opening comment 'so it was just another one I took down', think a big raise on the river might be appropriate. 

Before I registered that comment My thinking was more along these lines.

Your read on villain 'he check-folds every time he misses and check-calls every time he hits'.

No check calling from your villain, he's raising every street (ok just a min raise, but still raising) then calling off your pot size bets. Villain has hit and if your read is correct he's hit some thing big/monster.

When he bets the Flop, I'm thinking Qx Ax

When he bets the Turn, Ax QQ 

When he min bets the River, I'm thinking if we reraise he'll shove with his Ax

So we should just CALL 

because his x is another ace!!!

Am I anywhere near? lol

Lambert180

I know it's being picky but the villian is not raising at any point in the hand, he's betting. It does make a difference if someone says 'villian only raises with the nuts' for instance, cos what the villian is doing here is not raising.

Rich_Poor

In Response to Re: NL4 - Raise This River?:

I know it's being picky but the villian is not raising at any point in the hand, he's betting. It does make a difference if someone says 'villian only raises with the nuts' for instance, cos what the villian is doing here is not raising.
Posted by Lambert180

Ok, point taken, Villain is betting ever street. :-)

I know it's being picky but how do we spell villain? 

Thanks for heads up on Ryan Fee, interesting stuff.