20NL HU Cash - Nicking a Chop

Lambert180

This is just a maths question really but I'm rubbish at working out these things.

Villian is a high volume reg at the level.

We've got quite an aggressive dynamic usually when we play HU (although we haven't long sat down HU in this session) so I think he's practically never gonna checkback the turn with AA, Qx or Kx. Obv you always have to allow for the odd time they might do something funky.

If he did have one of them hands, I'm sure he wouldn't overbet the pot cos he'd want me to sigh call off for a chop which I prob won't for this price so smells of trying to get me off a chop

My question is basically, what % of the time does this nee dto work to be +EV and do you think it's likely to be +EV?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
X	Small blind		£0.10	£0.10	£41.88
Lambert180	Big blind		£0.20	£0.30	£33.90
	Your hole cards	6 6
X	Raise		£0.50	£0.80	£41.38
Lambert180	Call		£0.40	£1.20	£33.50
Flop
		Q Q Q
Lambert180	Check
X	Bet		£0.90	£2.10	£40.48
Lambert180	Call		£0.90	£3.00	£32.60
Turn
		K
Lambert180	Check
X	Check
River
		K
Lambert180	Check
X	Bet		£4.80	£7.80	£35.68
Lambert180	All-in		£32.60	£40.40	£0.00

TPTP123

Literally just google "bluff, how often does this need to work" and you get some good links to the technical math. A couple below.  If you have a DC membership then watch running the streets its quite intensive but i enjoyed watching it around this time last year i think... they cover this sort of thing in great detail. 

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/math-question-related-semibluffing-pls-help-830926/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/15/poker-theory/how-often-bluffs-calls-will-profitable-maths-831550/

As for the ship, I would rather just call the river bet as your chopping more money in rake for no reason a very large proportion of the time imo... the rest of the time your getting owned by Qx or Kx

The worst part is, that if you do have a Kx hand here you'd never ship the river like this to an Obet so i think if i am raising i prefer a 3x. (wel i am not shipping the river here some players might)

RE the Obet it kinda makes sense that alhough he shouldn't check the turn he prob does with K/Q/AA as his hand is soo strong but gets no value from worse.

Lambert180

Cheers TPTP, I'll give them links a look.

FWIW villian folded

TPTP123

no worries... running the streets def covers it in better detail

RE Villains bet/fold on the river is disgusting there and you can pm him that!!!  Clearly he mustve just been pushing buttons or summin if thats the case

TeddyBloat

As for whether it is + ev, if his range contains no Kx Qx or AA, and our range does have Kx Qx in there a certain % of the time then we can guarantee our equity =  pot with a large enough bet. There is a way of calculating the optimal sizing where villain is indifferent between calling or folding, that is when his expectation for calling = 0. if he's ever calling for the chop here when you  bet more than the optimal size then you can juice that bet size up and the times he calls when you do have Q/Kx/AA results in your overall equity exceeding that of the pot. if he ever has it you're done though. Dont know how to calculate that, just that it can be done.

Cheers, 

TEDDY

rancid

I am sure i replied at the time but idk internet is so messed up


think it was something like if villian has it 19% or /> than it's bad for you - anything under is good for you