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Is this the right play?
Hi folks
Funny one this. Just rer instead of ai as i felt eff stack +22bbs may not get me value so raise and not unhappy with BB call considering the flop as by then expected speculative hands to have folded. Decide to check to allow players to bet/catch up on turn. Turn is 5 and surely i can't be worried. My rer probably suggest high to medium pp so they could easily feel ahead. Small bet from opponent on turn. I raise and he calls. I bet halfpot as he has that much left i thought and he calls revealing his ppr. Was i wrong dismissing 22 from his range as he only had 22BB and had limped initially (we were still 15 places off cashing). I would expect spp to either AI or fold considering his 1 in 11 chance of setting. Am i wrong ? In fact what would you expect him to call my R with in this situation?
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
profman15 Small blind 200.00 200.00 14505.00
aZiZou Big blind 400.00 600.00 20675.00
Your hole cards
A
A
witsy39 Fold
Call 400.00 1000.00 8546.25
CATCH-22 Fold
profman15 Raise 1000.00 2000.00 13505.00
aZiZou Call 800.00 2800.00 19875.00
Call 800.00 3600.00 7746.25
Flop
3
4
A....rainbow
profman15 Check
aZiZou Check
Check
Turn
5
profman15 Check
aZiZou Check
Bet 400.00 4000.00 7346.25
profman15 Raise 2600.00 6600.00 10905.00
aZiZou Fold
Call 2200.00 8800.00 5146.25
River
6
profman15 Bet 4400.00 13200.00 6505.00
Call 4400.00 17600.00 746.25
profman15 Show
A
A
Show
2
2
Win Straight to the 6 17600.00 18346.25
Comments
If that's the case, I think you should raise a little bigger. 3x over a limper is not great, since we're out of position. I know the limper only has 22BB but if he's calling 3BB, he's probably calling 4BB, too.
I understand wanting to check this flop. We have to ask ourselves how often our opponents are going to bluff if we check and how often they're going to station off without an Ace. Obviously either player holding the remaining Ace is likely to pay us whatever we do.
So checking is good if we think they're going to pay us off on later streets if they have a weaker pair or if they're going to bluff when we don't c-bet. Otherwise just bet the flop and hope they'll call one street with weaker pocket pairs. The draws aren't that scary.
On the turn I think your raise is fine.
On the river, just set the villain all-in. It's not a pretty board for us, really, but he won't have the straight that often and he won't give us credit for it either. This time he had it, but most of the time you're just missing that little bit of value and missing the chance to bust an opponent.
Btw, the chances of flopping a set are 7.5:1, or 1 in 8.5 depending how you want to describe it.