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Thursday's live show: poker & NFL (***OFFICIAL THREAD***)
I am your host. tikay is your analyst. Rich 'Tighty' Prew and Sporting Life's David John are your guests.
From 7pm, as well as the usual Thursday-night Hold'em offerings, we'll spend a couple of hours talking about another form of gambling...
Namely, sports betting...
Specifically, betting on the greatest sport in the world...
N F L
And then, feel free to post any questions you may have about American Football. Are you a fan? How did you discover the game? Which team do you support, and why?
And remember, we're looking at the sport from a betting perspective. So,which teams are you tipping to win each division? Who'll be the 2013 MVP? Is too early to predict the line-up for Super Bowl XLVIII?
E-mail: skyopen@bskyb.com
Twitter: #SkyPokerTV
Comments
Evening James and other chaps. I believe Rich Prew is on the show tonight. Is he sticking around for the poker bits or just the betting forum?
The Seahawks and Broncos are looking good, (Not exactly sticking my neck out with that) so that seems a good shot for the Super Bowl.
You shouldn't listen to me, though. I've been watching the NFL for twelve years and still don't know what a tight end is or a full back... or just about anything else. I just like it when the guy throws the ball to the other guy and he runs into that colourful bit at the end of the field.
Questions for you James:
How was the SnG on Monday? Don't give away the result but were you surprised or impressed by anyone's game and how did it feel to finally get in front of the camera to play?
Have a great show.
Great question. That is a decision for the Producer, & I've not asked him, as we've all been locked in the Studio doing stuff for 36 of the last 72 hours, ending at Midnight last night, & we've not had time to discuss tonight's Show.
It would be great if Rich were to stay for the whole Show, he analyses poker well, & is hugely entertaining with his dry wit & gentle jibes. A very funny man indeed, very learned too.
Weird Rich Prew fact - at one time, he was the sort of admin assistant & general gofer for the Archbishop of Canterbury.
He also won a few heats of Mastermind, & knows the architect of every pre-war football stadium in the UK.
And don't even begin to ask him a stats based question on NFL, cricket, RU or football, the man is a sports encyclopedia.
Oh, I see......
To be truthful, Rich Oxford barely registers on my super-sensitive radar.
NFC
Arizona
After throwing away the week one game, they turned the tables and took the game away from Detroit in Week 2. Carson Palmer is as up and down as any quarterback not named Cam Newton, their rushing game is average and while their rushing defense is very good (keeping Detroit to under 50 total yards), but the pass rush seems to be less effective this year - one sack in two games is not a decent return.
Atlanta
After a terrible pre-season, they've made an average start (1-1), they haven't lost back-to-back regular season matches since 2009. The Falcons are already struggling with a rash of injuries, and the depth chart looks pretty thin in places. The Saints may be the favourites for the NFC South, but the Falcons will chase them for at least most of the season.
Carolina
Two losses to open the season (two close losses to be fair, but still two losses) has seen Ron Rivera's position already being questioned. Luke Kuechly is one of the premier linebackers in the league, and Cam Newton still has tons of potential, but he'll have to deliver sooner rather than later if it isn't going to be a very long season in Charlotte. This weekend against the Giants will be a good place to start.
Chicago
Jay Cutler may never be one of the very top NFL Quarterbacks, but he does have an overall winning record as a starter, and was crucial in the win over the Vikings last weekend. Martellus Bennett has been an excellent acquisition, but the retirement of Brian Urlacher leaves a hole that cannot be filled by just anyone. A 2-0 record may be slightly flattering, but the ability to win close games cannot be under-estimated.
Dallas
This year, the "how bout them Cowboys" hype seems to have been a little less than in previous years, but in NFC East terms they don't have too bad of a team, and they may even be the best team in the division. Tony Romo to Dez Bryant is going to be a prolific partnership but they need to establish a running game from somewhere. The defense has been creating turnovers (6 in the opening game alone compared to 17 in the whole of last season), but they've also been giving up a lot of big plays.
Detroit
If (and it's a big if) Reggie Bush can stay fit for the entire season, Detroit may just have a chance of hanging with Green Bay and Chicago long enough to challenge for a rare (for Detroit) wild card play-off spot. Matthew Stafford has something to prove after a poor 2012 season, but the whole team need show improvement and consistency.
Green Bay
Got a rough call from the officials in San Francisco, but came back to easily defeat Washington. After getting hosed in an even worse fashion last year, the Cheeseheads must be pleased they don't have to go the West Coast again this regular season. Aaron Rodgers seems to be as good as ever, and his receivers are making very good yards after the catch. Eddie Lacy and James Starks provide an adequate running game, and the defense seems to be getting there too and kicker Mason Crosby will hopefully have returned to form after a poor 2012.
Minnesota
Destined to be NFL North cellar dwellers in this, their last season at the Metrodome? Trades to given them three first round picks in this years draft indicated that this was always going to be a year of transition. Of course, they've still got Adrian Peterson but he can't do it on his own, and Christian Ponder is already under threat for the starting QB spot. One other bright spot might be the kick returns of the third of those three first round picks, Cordarelle Patterson.
New Orleans
The return of Sean Payton to the sidelines has seen expectations rise down in Louisiana, and a 2-0 start to the season has seen those expectations met - so far. The main transformation from last season has been the defense - ranked dead last in the league last season, but two solid performances so far this term looks good. Drew Brees may not be quite the player he was, but even a 80% effective Brees will win games, and the continued improvement of Tight End Jimmy Graham has taken some pressure off the receivers.
NY Giants
The Giants started off the 2007 season 0-2 and went on to win the Super Bowl, but a repeat this time around is highly unlikely. 77 points conceded in two games makes it obvious where the prime problems lie. Eli Manning hasn't yet produced this season either (7 interceptions so far), but it seems more likely that he will recover than the defense will transform itself. The bright spot may be the forthcoming schedule. Before they have their bye week in week 9, they play Philadelphia twice, and Carolina & Minnesota one each, all very winnable games.
Philadelphia
A mixed bag, it's no use being able to run millions of plays and run up high scores if the defense give all those points back. Chip Kelly is a solely offense oriented coach, but the other side of the ball is where the coaching needs to be concentrated now. They're in a terrible division, so what they've got may be enough to make the play-offs, and have an interesting game against former coach Andy Reed and his KC Chiefs. At least give them credit for dampening down the Riley Cooper situation and Michael Vick has clearly re-affirmed that he is the Eagles' starting QB.
St Louis
Another team that is the very definition of average. A nice home win against a division rival in Week 1, a ten-point loss on the road in week 2 despite Sam Bradford throwing the ball 55 times. Defense - nothing to write home about, 15th ranked against both the pass and the rush so here comes that word again - average, with the notable exception of Robert Quinn's 4 sacks. Punt returns need to get better, Tavon Austin is averaging only 1.4 yards per return so far.
San Francisco
A superb Colin Capernick performance led them to an opening weekend win at home to Green Bay, but in Week 2 Capernick threw for just 127 yards and committed four turnovers, and the 49ers got thrashed. But they get thrashed every year in Seattle, or so it seems, and if they don't get any more Defensive Line injuries, the 49ers will be OK and will be still playing football when the play-offs start. British discus record holder Lawrence Okoye is still with the team, but on injured reserve and it looks unlikely he will make the main squad any time soon.
Seattle
Impressive so far, particularly on the defense. Any team that can keep the 49ers to 3 points must be respected. Russell Wilson isn't racking up huge numbers, but he's leading the team to wins which is the most important thing, and with a game against the Jaguars next, it's likely the Seahawks will start off with a 3-0 record and force the 49er to play catch-up
Tampa Bay
0-2, but they've lost those two games by a total of 3 points. Rumours are emerging from Tampa that coach Greg Schiaro's methods are not going down too well, particularly with star Cornerback Darrell Revis. The defense are spreading things around, each of Mason Foster, Lavonte David & Dekoda Watson have recorded both a sack and an interception in each of the first two games. On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Freeman doesn't appear to be an obvious NFL-standard QB, but he's the best they've got and their other major problem is discipline - too many penalties all-round (including one that cost them the game against the Jets) and Dashon Goldson was suspended for Week 3 for a personal foul last week but overturned the ban on appeal.
Washington
Oh dear, what a mess. A team that has not scored an offensive point in the first half of either game and a defense that has more holes in it than you would have thought possible. RG3 built up some decent numbers in the second half last weekend, but his team were 31-0 down at the time and the game was already beyond them. Being in the dreadful NFC East may be their only salvation but any real panic measures are just typical Washington over-reaction
AFC
Baltimore
The reigning champions may have had the toughest possible start to the season by having to play their opener in Denver, and they weren't that impressive when getting their first win of the season at home to Cleveland in Week 2. Losing so many major parts of their Super Bowl winning team at the same time does appear to have dented the prospects of a repeat, but as long as you've got Joe Flacco you've got some sort of a chance although his long passing game has gone missing so far. If he clicks, a real fight with Cincinnati for the division looms, if he doesn't, missing the playoffs altogether is a real possibility.
Buffalo
It was always going to be tough for this year's QB draft class to equal the instant success of last years, but EJ Manuel is doing a fine early-season job in upstate New York with him leading the Bills to an 80-yard game winning drive. There are other sparks of light too (the defense managed 6 sacks of Cam Newton, CJ Spiller had a much better Week 2 than Week 1), but the impression is that Buffalo will do well to have an 8-8 season, some distance behind New England & Denver in the AFC East.
Cincinnati
The Bengals were a popular pick to be a real challenger in the AFC this season, certainly to go further than last season's disappointing exit in the Wild Card game. So far, they haven't really shown that potential when losing at Chicago and then beating Pittsburgh at home but if they beat the Packers this weekend the hype will suddenly re-emerge. Andy Dalton will lead the team to wins by playing the short passing game, rookie running back Giovani Bernard looks like a decent second round pick but the defense seem a little inconsistent. Straighten that out and a third successive year in the play-offs is likely.
Cleveland
The Browns have managed double figure wins only once since their rebirth (and haven't even managed to win half a dozen games in any of the last five seasons) and to be brutally honest it looks another season with more losses than wins. The return of Josh Gordon may give them a legitimate downfield option, but is Brandon Weeden going to be fit enough to throw to him, and if Weeden's not the answer, surely none of the backups are up to it - second on the depth chart Brian Hoyer was cut three different times last year. It's a very young squad and perhaps may be a challenger in two or three years, but not this year.
Denver
The best team in the league? They've certainly looked it so far with Peyton Manning back to his imperious best and host of Free Agent signings headed by Wes Welker are already contributing to a high standard. By contrast, they've received very little help so far from their draftees. Their schedule looks weak, with only a Week 7 game at Indianapolis looking like a potential stumbling block on the way to 8-0 by the time they get their bye, and Kansas City may well be too far behind to challenge for the division lead by the time they cross swords with the Broncos in weeks 11 & 13. The only thing that may hinder them is injuries to the offensive line, they've lost two starters already. Worthy favourites.
Houston
In each of the last two seasons, the Texans were Divisional Champs but lost the Divisional Play-off round and another trip to the play-off beckons with two tight victories already under their belt. It does get harder from here though, with Baltimore, Seattle & San Francisco on the schedule over the next three weeks. The receiving corps is the standout - Andre Johnson has been joined by rookie DeAndre Hopkins but QB Matt Schaub has to cut out the interceptions which could be costly against better teams than those the Texans have played before - it should not have needed a late rally and overtime to beat a team like Tennessee. The defense, as before, is led by Defensive End JJ Watt, last seasons NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Indianapolis
As the QB position goes, so do the Colts. After the end of the Peyton Manning era, a disasterous 2011 led them to be table to take Andrew Luck in the 2012 draft and he led them to a 11-5 record and the play-offs. Injuries have already started to take their toll this year, and it would a very optimistic Colts fan to expect a repeat in 2013 after a fairly unimpressive win over the Raiders and a home loss to Miami. Luck's long passing game seems to be off and the running game has looked anaemic. The star on defense so far has been safety LaRon Landry, but again it's not healthy when a safety is leading your team on tackles made.
Jacksonville
"Britain's team" look set to be the worst in the NFL this season after a loss to Oakland in week 2 has made them heavy favourites to claim the Number 1 spot in next year's draft. When one of your best players through two weeks is punter Bryan Anger, bright spots look few and far between. QB Chad Henne is average and the clamour from the Floridian fans to sign Tim Tebow might not be able to be resisted for too much longer. The only score in the first game was a safety, and they again finished in single digits in points in Week 2. That's not likely to get much better this weekend in Seattle, where the early line has them as 19.5 point underdogs (only 3 games have featured wider spreads in the last 25 years)
Kansas City
While no-one can have any doubts that the 49ers promoting Colin Kapernick to starting QB was a good decision, the man he replaced, Alex Smith has carved out a niche for himself at Kansas City. They might not be world-beaters, and their position tying the Broncos for the AFC West lead at 2-0 may be a little flattering, but after last years dismal 2-14 effort this team is without doubt a big step forward and an outside chance at a Wild Card cannot be ruled out. This Thursday's game with Andy Reid returning to Philly for the first time since being sacked there last December will show whether the Chiefs may be for real, or if the first two games were a false dawn.
Miami
There have been 18 starting QBs since Dan Marino retired. The 18th, Ryan Tannehill may be the best since Marino. Tight End Charles Clay has filled a hole, while rookie Kicker Caleb Sturgis is perfect so far, and the discipline is there so the team are giving away precious few yards in penalties. 2-0, with both of those wins on the road cannot be underestimated. A dark horse (or should that be a dark sea-horse?)
New England
Coming into the season, Tom Brady's knee was a concern but it seems to be holding up and the Golden Boy has led the Patriots to their usual 2-0 start. However, as the teams they've beaten to rack up those two wins are the Bucs and Jets, the jury may stil be out. Also, when push comes to shove, who's he going to throw it too? Even if they get Gronknowski back soon, do they have enough seasoned hands to catch Brady's passes.
NY Jets
No team has been a bigger pantomime over the last 20 years than the Jets, and it looks like 2013 will be no different. Mark Sanchez is injured and Geno Smith has not shown he is ready to be an NFL QB as a rookie. Brady Quinn may be getting the call sooner than anyone thought likely three weeks ago. An opening day win over Tampa Bay may have bought Rex Ryan a little time, and the defense is doing a fair job but the feeling is that the Jets will do well to equal last season's poor 6-10 showing, let alone improve on it.
Oakland
The good news - Oakland are only a game out of the divisional lead. The bad news - that's about as good as it's going to get. That might not seem quite fair, as they might even had been on a 2-0 record if Terrelle Pryor had not thrown that late interception when Oakland had a chance to upset Indianapolis on opening day. The offence lacks the ability to break big plays, the best player on the defense (Charles Woodson) is now in his late 30s and even the previously reliable kicker Sebastian Janikowski has been erratic so far. Last place in the AFC West beckons. Brit Menelik Watson, who was drafted in Round 2 started the final pre-season game but a torn lateral meniscus means he will be out for at least a month.
Pittsburgh
Will the real Pittsburgh Steelers please stand up? Are they as bad as their 0-2 record suggests? Probably not, and the fact that nobody else in their division managed to win both of their first two games means that things don't look too bad, but another defeat against the Bears this weekend would mean that panic stations may not be too far away amongst black and gold fans. Ben Roethlisberger has managed on 1 TD in each of the teams first two games and the team as a whole has only 19 points so far and they don't have 100 yards total rushing in the first 2 games combined. Perhaps the Steelers are getting old and slow? Improvements are needed and needed quickly.
San Diego
A 1-1 record might indicate your standard run-of-the-mill average Chargers team, but in all honesty they've been a little bit better than that. They were 28-17 up before losing to the Titans in week 1, and then off a short rest week they dealt with the fast-tempo Philly offense for a victory that should have been more convincing if it were not for two turnovers within the red zone. Philip Rivers has 7 TD passes and only 1 interception, and 5 of those 6-pointers have gone to Eddie Royal who was originally not expected to feature that heavily in the depth chart. If and when Manti Te'o is cleared to play, the defense should be ranked in the top half, but as usual with the Chargers the question will be can they keep up a similar standard for 16 games?
Tennessee
So close to a 2-0 record. Eight points up when conceding a TD and a 2-point conversion and then losing out in OT at Houston saw them just unable to follow up on their opening win at Pittsburgh. So with 2 difficult road games out of the way, their season will be defined by the 6 home games out of their next 8. Without any real stars on the major offensive positions (even Chris Johnson would not be a starter on many teams), the defence have to keep the opposition quiet to give Jake Locker half a chance. A fifth successive year outside the playoffs beckons.
So, in rather a boring fashion, the best teams are those at the head of all the main markets. Denver to win the AFC, with either Seattle/San Francisco/Green Bay from the NFC look worthy investments, but the value has long gone. For a divisional winner that is still at odds against, Miami may be worth a speculative pound or two, and maybe a saver on the 49ers if you think Seattle are a little over-rated at this early stage. And finally, for a complete punt, Matt Schaub at 33-1 for "most regular season passing words" looks a little over priced to me.
As for how I got into American Football and who I follow, it dates back to 1982 when Channel 4 started showing the sport. I had just started college in North East Wales, and one of the people on the same floor as me was an American exchange student from the University of Wisconsin-Stout, named Randy. He was, of course, a Packers fan and explained the game to us know-nothings far better than Nicky Horne did on TV, and turned a number of us into honorary Cheese-Heads. It didn't hurt that we all found the name of the Packers' QB (Lynn Dickey) slightly amusing.
Edited for formatting reasons and to correct a couple of spelling mistakesWow @ FCHD!
Rich Prew will love that. He'll not agree with it all, but he'll love it.
Top work FCHD.
(Apart from the bits where I'm wrong, obviously)
It's unfortunate that football (the way the Americans play it) isn't given a fair shake over here on television, as it's infinitely more interesting than the game they play over here that saturates our schedules.
I was a big NBA fan a few years ago, but it is difficult to keep abreast of what's happening when ITV would rather show a repeat of Midsomer Murders.
Admittedly, with the internet it is much simpler nowadays than it used to be, but I reckon if the terrestrial networks gave these niche sports a chance, those in control of the strings would find that there are a lot of people in this country who would sit down to watch.
-- Brian
The US website was hilarious "and the winner of the 2010 NFL draft competiion is Richard Prew from London, England. England? We'll give up now"
Nice reports, by the way
Would you agree that Archibald Leitch was the best and most prolific football ground architect ?
Name his stadiums ? :-)
At the last count only seven of his stands remained, but you can see them (and his famous lattice style supports) today in the Premier League at Goodison, in Scottish football at Ibrox and probably most as it was at Fratton park in the main stand
I got into the game in the 80s when it was shown on c4. the first game I watched involved The New England Patriots and I liked the name so that's who I chose to follow. this year I believe that they have A chance, but with their poorish receiving corps it might be only A chance.
james I like your 49ers if they can use colin kaepernick well, but if teams can deal with him it could be iffy.
rich your cowboys could be a bit of a surprise this year if they can stop being a bit of a yoyo.
having watched most of the tv games this season I like the broncos for the AFL and the bears for the NFC. my wildcard is the seahawks.
should be a fun season
laurie/ lozgo
no jackpot possibles left