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Folding 10s pre, FT, 5 handed
I came up against this tonight, it's quite a nitty fold 5 handed at a FT.
I was always wondering afterwards if it was the correct fold or not, at the time i was confident it was, now i'm not so sure.
The reason i folded was the vilain would min raise (espec blind on blind) and always folded to a shove.
With strong hands he was 4xing, 2 hands that were shown were 9s and AK. When vilain makes this big raise here (bigger than his normal raise for a strong hand) i was thinking at best i was flipping but more than likely he had Jacks or better.
I was always wondering afterwards if it was the correct fold or not, at the time i was confident it was, now i'm not so sure.
The reason i folded was the vilain would min raise (espec blind on blind) and always folded to a shove.
With strong hands he was 4xing, 2 hands that were shown were 9s and AK. When vilain makes this big raise here (bigger than his normal raise for a strong hand) i was thinking at best i was flipping but more than likely he had Jacks or better.
| LARSON7 | Small blind | 800.00 | 800.00 | 32942.50 | |
| leigha1981 | Big blind | 1600.00 | 2400.00 | 93416.25 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| woody207 | Fold | ||||
| welldodgy | Fold | ||||
| x | Raise | 8000.00 | 10400.00 | 23367.50 | |
| LARSON7 | Fold |
Comments
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Larson, the pre-flop raise size probably indicates only that the villain doesn't want to play a flop. That makes his likely range pairs and AK, AQ type hands. I don't know how many of those pairs are lower pairs...
If you had specific reads that this only ever means AK, AQ or 99+ then this is a good fold. Does he really make this sizing with AA, KK, or QQ, though? You say he'd shown 99 and AK in situations like this, but that doesn't mean he's playing the big pairs the same way.
You went with your read, which is good. I'd be more critical of you if you'd said "I knew this raise always meant strength from this opponent, but I have TT. I have to go with it, right?"
Player specific decisions are better than hand specific decisions. I don't think I'd fold here based just on this history, though. I'd just think it's so unlikely that he plays 99 and AA, KK or QQ in exactly the same way. Also, if he can be doing this with 99, then can he not do it with 88, 77, 66, etc. too?
The only thing that concerned me was maybe he was over betting (a lesser pair/ weaker hand) as you said because he didn't want a call.
In saying that looking back at it this morning i think it's the right fold. The guy was pretty transparent with his betting, which is a bit of a shame. I feel my read is right he had a monster here.
99s would be an easy fold. Jacks i wouldn't be loving it, but i'd shove. 10's was right on the margin.
If i felt it was a flip, my money would be going right in the middle.
Mr i've not won a main in 5 days, i'm on a massive downswing lol
I don't have a problem with the fold if you think he's making his hand range transparent as overpairs or AK. Going with your read is fine. I just wonder why you think JJ plays so much better than TT against that range. What do you think the bottom of his range for the 5x is, especially if we know 4x was 99?
Are we that sure that he has a consistent betting pattern? If he's 4x'ing or 5x'ing some of the time, are we sure it's so clear as to say "He made it 4x with 99, so 5x can't be 99"? Might he just be clicking buttons?
Some will say it's a nitty fold but if you have those specific, reliable reads it should simply be considered a good fold.
A bit later blinds at 1-2k, opponent 4 xed to 8k, i shoved AQ, he had pocket 10s, and went onto to win the flip.
"With strong hands he was 4xing, 2 hands that were shown were 9s and AK"
Don't think a fold can be criticised here.
Give him top 5% of hands & we're in bad shape w/ no fold equity.
equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 42.989% 41.98% 01.01% 254434368 6145524.00 { TT }Hand 1: 57.011% 56.00% 01.01% 339430200 6145524.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Should have a decent edge & 20xbb without antes is vvv playable.
It's also 4 handed by this point and I have 15 bigs totally standard ship and just unlucky I lose the flip, if I win this flip, i'm prob favourite to win the tournie.