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20NL - Bet/Fold Riv or Checkback?

edited September 2013 in The Poker Clinic
As title says...

Not much info on opponent. I know they aint a multi-tabling reg, from the short amount I've seen they seem quite loose/passive, limp/call alot, play draws quite passively etc
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
luejay9313 Small blind   £0.10 £0.10 £10.66
X Big blind   £0.20 £0.30 £17.71
  Your hole cards
  • K
  • K
     
Lambert180 Raise   £0.60 £0.90 £48.52
dontazeme Fold        
luejay9313 Fold        
X Call   £0.40 £1.30 £17.31
Flop
   
  • 10
  • 8
  • 6
     
X Check        
Lambert180 Bet   £0.80 £2.10 £47.72
X Call   £0.80 £2.90 £16.51
Turn
   
  • 2
     
X Check        
Lambert180 Bet   £1.60 £4.50 £46.12
X Call   £1.60 £6.10 £14.91
River
   
  • 9
     
X Check        
           
           
           
           
           
           

Comments

  • edited September 2013

    I might bet a tad bigger on the flop and definitely a lot bigger on the turn. The board's wet, we think the guy is loose and passive and will call us down with draws. Let him call more.

    If we think he can call a river bet with his J9, 9sXs or random 8x hands, then value bet. We need him calling down with more than just his top-pairs, otherwise there are probably more two-pairs, made straights and sets in his check-calling range than hands we beat. Obviously he folds all missed draws which form a big part of the range that we still beat.

    Definitely check back if he's not calling those weaker pairs. We can only justify value-betting to get value from just a Ten if he's always going to have taken off with a set or two-pair hand.

    If we bet, keep it small. No reason to think a passive villain is going to consider anything more than the absolute strength of his hand. Bet big and he probably just folds those weaker hands.

    Do we think we're merging if we bet river here? I'm genuinely asking because my brain is not giving me an answer.

  • edited September 2013
    bet if you like money
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