River decision with the nuts

F_Ivanovic

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
gillian23	Small blind		£0.50	£0.50	£51.75
F_Ivanovic	Big blind		£0.50	£1.00	£128.99
	Your hole cards	Q 5 A 8
katiegir16	Raise		£1.50	£2.50	£48.50
littlepips	Call		£1.50	£4.00	£224.03
gillian23	Fold
F_Ivanovic	Raise		£5.00	£9.00	£123.99
X	Call		£4.00	£13.00	£44.50
Y	Call		£4.00	£17.00	£220.03
Flop
		6 8 8
F_Ivanovic	Bet		£5.70	£22.70	£118.29
X	Call		£5.70	£28.40	£38.80
Y	Call		£5.70	£34.10	£214.33
Turn
		A
F_Ivanovic	Bet		£18.00	£52.10	£100.29
X	Call		£18.00	£70.10	£20.80
Y	Fold
River
		8
F_Ivanovic	?

So X is I assume pretty good. Whenever I play on a table of omaha with them they will often leave with a nice stack. I haven't really tangled too much with them though. Y I've not come across before but my guess is that they're fairly fishy.

OK so 3bettng with this hand is probably bad but we'll ignore that! Flop play I guess I could bet a little bigger when I've got someone in the pot who I'm quite deep with. Turn it becomes even more awkard with stack sizes. I want X to put money in but at the same time want to play for stacks with Y if possible. So decide to just go over half pot and X calls but Y folds. So now that leaves a really awkard small bet size left OTR. River comes to give me quads - problem is when I 3bet pre and bet flop/turn and hold an 8 an A in my hand I can't see a single hand that villain might have had that will now call a bet.

I mean I put them on 8x initially but obviously they can't have 8x now. So maybe they had 66x which is now conterfeit and won't call a bet. Really struggled to put them on a hand. But given this, should I check here? There's just enough back that they might try and bluff me off something but I'm not sure.

Phantom66

A good player has called in position pf and down 2 streets - has to have something and isnt going to get carried away with a flush or str8 although those possibilities may have kept them in pot until the river.

I wouldn't check in that situation - just got to hope they have made a strong FH with AA or KK in hand and will call/raise any bet. You have a blocker to AA but on turn they would have to think they are trapping you big time. 

I'd probably bet pot

I would put them on AA or KK + something else that connected with flop - either 66 or 79 

I guess somehting like A567 or 4567 is possible too. 

LnarinOO

he only has £20 regardless of his range jus set him in and hope he feels committed with anything- its less likely he has a strong enough hand so will less likely to be jamming for  value and he has no fold equity as a bluff so jus set him in and hope he calls for pot odds 

F_Ivanovic

Any more discussion here or shall I post results?

@Phantom: Both KK and AA seem incredibly unlikely here. KK is unlikely because unless he has AKK or KK8 (the latter being impossible now) he's not callng a turn bet with it. AA is unlikely because for one he 4bets pre with most of his AA and for two there's only 1 combo of it.

To me his range would seem like 66xx and wraps with a FD. 66 might call a rver bet but I really doubt it and neither is a flush. So even though it seems unlikely that villain will bluff given how little is left in the pot I still think there's more of a possibility of this than him calling my bet.

Anyway, I did check and got villain to bluff shove with 66.

Phantom66

In Response to Re: River decision with the nuts:

Any more discussion here or shall I post results? @Phantom: Both KK and AA seem incredibly unlikely here. KK is unlikely because unless he has AKK or KK8 (the latter being impossible now) he's not callng a turn bet with it. AA is unlikely because for one he 4bets pre with most of his AA and for two there's only 1 combo of it. To me his range would seem like 66xx and wraps with a FD. 66 might call a rver bet but I really doubt it and neither is a flush. So even though it seems unlikely that villain will bluff given how little is left in the pot I still think there's more of a possibility of this than him calling my bet. Anyway, I did check and got villain to bluff shove with 66.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Probably right on the KK - could be KK79ds but that's a stretch

Is it really just a bluff on river? OK so made turn hand just looks a lot weaker. Do you think villain would had called with low FH if you had bet? Villain wont have you on an 8 that's for sure.