Variance or Poor Play?

peter27

Hi guys,

Of late I seem to be on a considerble losing streak (about three weeks now) and this has happened at the worst possible time because I'm relatively new to developing my play so I'm not quite sure if this is due to variance or just me playing really badly.

I do try have a reason for every decision I make, and while I can pinpoint some poor decisions during MTT's (that's my game by the way!) which have eliminated me - it doesn't account for such a long streak of poor form.

I guess my question is, how do you know if variance is at work or you're just playing terribly?

hhyftrftdr

Variance can be a harsh mistress, as I'm finding out for myself at the moment! Could be a mix of poor decisions and run bad; when you're not feeling great about your poker I think it affects your abilty to make the right decision. I know I'm questioning almost every decision I make at the moment as I try to plough through this downswing.

If you feel you are generally still playing solid poker (in the main), then it's likely that this phase will soon pass. 

Don't forget though, even during the periods of when we feel invincible, we should always be looking at areas of our game that could need improving. It's easy to forget when we crush tournaments that we might have butchered some hands and spots en route!

craigcu12

it's propably starting off with variance but what might start happening is the variance then turns into bad decision making.

i myself having just come back from a cool down after bad MTTs returned to cash poker and it has not been of to the best of start's. at first it was mostly down to luck but where it changed was when i was still consisting with the same style of play when on them tables when i should have relised it is just not working. so i am starting to now be more focused with the table structure and what will suit it best.

it probably doesn't go as well with MTT as you generally switching tables commonly, but as long as your most favoured way of playing MTT does still work the majority of the time, it will not be long before you will get back to winning ways.

the main thing i believe is, just don't let expectations go over the top because variance can come out of nowhere and you won't notice until the money has dropped massive and it is much harder  to recover than it is to suffer.

peter27

Thanks for the kind words guys, but the main issue is that I'm developing my game - so it may well just be me playing badly ... I'm not sure how to tell for sure!

Lambert180

Best way is to post some hands in the clinic where you're not sure if you did the right thing. Always best to explain why you did what you did too cos sometimes you might do the right thing (kinda by accident) but your reason for doing it is flawed so in a different situation you used the same flawed logic to do something bad.

peter27

In Response to Re: Variance or Poor Play?:

Best way is to post some hands in the clinic where you're not sure if you did the right thing. Always best to explain why you did what you did too cos sometimes you might do the right thing (kinda by accident) but your reason for doing it is flawed so in a different situation you used the same flawed logic to do something bad.
Posted by Lambert180

I have been doing that, and have been recieving feedback ... sometimes my decisions are right, sometimes they're wrong - I am still developing my game though so the times I'm wrong are understandable, I am learning from those mistakes. However even with these mistakes I was cashing regularly previously, recently I appear to be struggling to cash.

I do need to post more detail on the clinic when posting hands though, thanks for the tip :-)