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skill v natural ability

edited October 2013 in Poker Chat
How much natural ability do you need to be successful at this game.Can you read every book going watch every video.Learn every possible stratagy for every possible situation and still be no good.The reason i ask is because i must had done all the above.I no about premium hands position etc etc and still i lose i even lose at micro stakes.As i only play mainly micro stakes these days i can handle the losses but it can get a little tiring having to reload again and again.A while ago i had quite a run where i built up my stake to over £200 i thought it was skill but it was the most unbelievable run of good fortune and inevitably i ended up over time giving it all back.So i now reckon my bad play is the fact i have absolutely no natural ability whats so ever and after playing the game for 4 years now i realise i never will have.
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Comments

  • edited October 2013
    Given that poker is in theory solvable [albeit using more computer power than we have] I'd say it is a game of skill. Maybe some people have a more natural intuition regarding spotting people's betting pattern s or visualising or estimating ranges and optimal frequencies, maybe some people are risk averse, or intuitively have a feel for risk paradoxes like the ellsberg, montty hall, or alais  problems. But I don't believe that there's anything innate other than the natural advantages that some people have as discussed above. 

    There are parallels to chess, but whereas I don't think you'll ever see a grandmaster lacking  certain innate traits such as incredible memory, focus and rationality, I dont think poker is anywhere near as complex as chess and the luck element also means that although some may have a natural advantage there aren't barriers to decent success like there are to someone deciding to become a professional athlete or chess player late in life

    Cheers, TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    The beauty about this game is that the basics, ABC poker can turn you into a profitable player.  Yes natural ability is useful in most sports, but I would say in Poker it is better to be able to grasp the fundemantals of the game and anyone can do that.

    Yes there will always be players , the likes of Tom Dwan, who are just insanely good at the game right from the off.  However you dont have to beone of them to be profitable at this game 
  • edited October 2013
    90% Educated learning
    10% Natural ability


    I could turn anyone into a winning player at nl4 in 1 week.


  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    Given that poker is in theory solvable [albeit using more computer power than we have] I'd say it is a game of skill.Posted by TeddyBloat
    I agree poker is mostly a game of skill, Teddy, but I'm not sure what you mean by it being solvable. A large part of the game is about the cards in your opponent's hands and/or their ability to represent a hand that isn't. That being the case, I don't know how you can mathematically 'solve' it.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    90% Educated learning 10% Natural ability I could turn anyone into a winning player at nl4 in 1 week.
    Posted by rancid

    Have you seen me Play ;o)


  • edited October 2013
    1% skill, 90% luck, 8% instinct, 1% rigged
  • edited October 2013
    Hey Subzero,

    Definatly check out Craigcu's diary, which shows his ups and downs playing low stake cash,4nl and 10nl.

    Also, it's good you have read a lot/ studied up on poker, but sometimes it's hard gaining information from a book when a lot of it in a real game will depend on your opponents and reads.

    Another good thing to do is use the poker clinic, at the end of a session load up your biggest winning hands and losing hands and loads of players will give you feedback on your hands/ positives or any mistakes made.

    A brilliant way to help anyone improve!

    Playing low stakes, start from scratch, play an ABC style of poker to start with and see how it goes. Biggest thing while playing low stakes, be really aggressive with your strong hands. If you get any resistance, re-evaluate, often when people show aggression at the lower stakes they have it. Don't be scared to fold Top pair good kicker, and even hands like 2 pair on scarey boards.
  • edited October 2013
    It's an interesting question, as Teddy points out above, in theory the game is solveable (mathematically speaking), which means that there must be a 100% optimal way to play which if adopted and adhered to should always result in a profitable outcome over time.  Again in theory if 2 players were to play against each other and play 100% optimum poker, over time they would both break even (minus the rake that the house takes).

    The interesting thing about poker is that of all of the players that understand this and that have studied as you have all of the books, videos and forums etc.... Pretty much none of them play 'optimally' we all adopt our own playing styles based around our understandings of the fundamental principles of the game.  Therefore the skill of the game or the 'edge' you can gain over your opponents is not necessarily purely in a deeper understanding of the principles or the maths of the game, but in your ability to understand how your opponents are playing the game and making adjustments in your play to exploit their weaknesses.

    This is where the very best players find their advantage and it's a real skill that definitely comes more easily to some than it does to others, but is certainly something that can be learned and improved upon by studying the game.  I remember when I was first learning, I was watching a lot of poker on TV and I remember an interview with Phil Ivey where he was talking about gaining an edge over his opponents and improving his game.  He said that in every single hand, even when he had folded and was not involved in the pot he would study the actions of every player at the table and would try to work out what hands they were playing, what their betting patterns meant, any habitual leaks or tells etc...  It's something that's always stuck with me and something I've always tried to do myself and is a really great discipline to practice both to improve your hand reading ability and also to keep yourself fully focussed on the game.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    It's an interesting question, as Teddy points out above, in theory the game is solveable (mathematically speaking), which means that there must be a 100% optimal way to play which if adopted and adhered to should always result in a profitable outcome over time.  Again in theory if 2 players were to play against each other and play 100% optimum poker, over time they would both break even (minus the rake that the house takes). The interesting thing about poker is that of all of the players that understand this and that have studied as you have all of the books, videos and forums etc.... Pretty much none of them play 'optimally' we all adopt our own playing styles based around our understandings of the fundamental principles of the game.  Therefore the skill of the game or the 'edge' you can gain over your opponents is not necessarily purely in a deeper understanding of the principles or the maths of the game, but in your ability to understand how your opponents are playing the game and making adjustments in your play to exploit their weaknesses. This is where the very best players find their advantage and it's a real skill that definitely comes more easily to some than it does to others, but is certainly something that can be learned and improved upon by studying the game.  I remember when I was first learning, I was watching a lot of poker on TV and I remember an interview with Phil Ivey where he was talking about gaining an edge over his opponents and improving his game.  He said that in every single hand, even when he had folded and was not involved in the pot he would study the actions of every player at the table and would try to work out what hands they were playing, what their betting patterns meant, any habitual leaks or tells etc...  It's something that's always stuck with me and something I've always tried to do myself and is a really great discipline to practice both to improve your hand reading ability and also to keep yourself fully focussed on the game.
    Posted by Slykllist
    If we mention optimum/GTO and then we mention exploitative play - the two are not the same

    Both are a skill to be developed, while GTO is heavily embedded in maths while expolit is soley game flow.

    The greatest skill is to marry them together and you essentially have your prefect poker player

    While a compupter in years to come may solve NL hold em, it could not solve expolitative game play.

    So if in years to come when hold em is solved, who would be more profitable....

    PC playing GTO

    or


    Human playing GTO & exploitative poker


    ...











  • edited October 2013
    Yeah, I don't think you can 'solve' something that involves human thought processes and/or responses to situations.
  • edited October 2013
    First of all let me point out that it is refreshing to see someone admitting they are making mistakes, I beleive you are already on your way to becoming a winning player as you understand you have leaks, I would never say if you read all the books and study the game constantly that is enough to become profitable, 1 thing I would point out is you need to develop your own style, your own feel for the game so you can find your edges over your oppenents, you wont get this in a book or a training video. If i was you I would focus on putting more hours into actually playing poker as this will always be your best tool for learning ! anyways gl with it all
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : If we mention optimum/GTO and then we mention exploitative play - the two are not the same Both are a skill to be developed, while GTO is heavily embedded in maths while expolit is soley game flow. The greatest skill is to marry them together and you essentially have your prefect poker player While a compupter in years to come may solve NL hold em, it could not solve expolitative game play. So if in years to come when hold em is solved, who would be more profitable.... PC playing GTO or Human playing GTO & exploitative poker ...
    Posted by rancid
    You seem to be re-iterating the point I was making?
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : If we mention optimum/GTO and then we mention exploitative play - the two are not the same Both are a skill to be developed, while GTO is heavily embedded in maths while expolit is soley game flow. The greatest skill is to marry them together and you essentially have your prefect poker player While a compupter in years to come may solve NL hold em, it could not solve expolitative game play. So if in years to come when hold em is solved, who would be more profitable.... PC playing GTO or Human playing GTO & exploitative poker ...
    Posted by rancid
    Very interesting question, in theory the perfect GTO would be unexploitable, that said I'd have my money on the human!
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : Very interesting question, in theory the perfect GTO would be unexploitable, that said I'd have my money on the human!
    Posted by Slykllist

    If they played each other the PC would win hands down

    I am saying if they were to go and play for a year versus humans who would be more profitable



  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : You seem to be re-iterating the point I was making?
    Posted by Slykllist
    Well kinda, there is obvious skill in both GTO poker and exploitative poker.

    Combine the skills together and boooooooooom!





  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    Yeah, I don't think you can 'solve' something that involves human thought processes and/or responses to situations.
    Posted by Slipwater
    There is not a single situation in poker that's outcome is not mathematically calculable, therefore the game is 'theoretically' solveable, this is an inarguable fact.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : There is not a single situation in poker that's outcome is not mathematically calculable, therefore the game is 'theoretically' solveable, this is an inarguable fact.
    Posted by Slykllist
    I agree that poker is maths, but human response to any given situation cannot be solved. If you put all your chips in the middle, I either call or fold. No computer in the world can know what I am going to do.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : I agree that poker is maths, but human response to any given situation cannot be solved. If you put all your chips in the middle, I either call or fold. No computer in the world can know what I am going to do.
    Posted by Slipwater
    I completely agree, it also has absolutely no bearing on the point in question.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : I agree that poker is maths, but human response to any given situation cannot be solved. If you put all your chips in the middle, I either call or fold. No computer in the world can know what I am going to do.
    Posted by Slipwater
    The computer will not care what you do because you will make more mistakes than a computer playing GTO - just like you would versus a competant GTO human...

    unless you play perfect poker!
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : There is not a single situation in poker that's outcome is not mathematically calculable, therefore the game is 'theoretically' solveable, this is an inarguable fact.
    Posted by Slykllist
    Suppose we are facing a player who is a huge calling station. We hold a really strong hand OTR... how much do we bet? Now an overbet AI may well be the correct play here, but how is a computer going to mathematically calculate that - without knowing any info about the player?



  • edited October 2013
    GTO is essentially about taking lines that are the most unexploitable but they won't always be the most +EV

    For instance, you're playing against someone who is literally just looking at their own hand and nothing else and is really loose/passive, what's the point in balancing our range? We don't need to, we just take them to value town when we have it, and dont' when we dont. It wouldn't be GTO to just check/fold a ton of missed flops then full pot it everytime we make top pair, but if it works against that player then exploitative play will win far more than GTO against that villian.
  • edited October 2013
    GTO assumes you are playing someone who is also GTO

    The more you veer away from GTO the more money you will lose

    You can not exploit GTO

    I don't think it's proven that GTO yields greater EV than exploitative poker

    But likewise it is not proven exploitative poker yields greater EV than GTO

    Think it's well proven that GTO woulld beat an exploitative player

    rock paper scissors anyone :D

    Cmon the best you can do is break even!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKm8LXwKnbs




  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : Suppose we are facing a player who is a huge calling station. We hold a really strong hand OTR... how much do we bet? Now an overbet AI may well be the correct play here, but how is a computer going to mathematically calculate that - without knowing any info about the player?
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it doesn't matter!  You're talking about exploitative poker, GTO doesn't care about that, it's about being unexploitable.
  • edited October 2013
    But unexploitable doesn't mean MOST +EV and obv that's what we want.

    The thread has went a bit off topic, so fwiw, I think it's almost all skills that can be learnt, even more so online. Certain people will have a head start in certain aspects but it can be learned.... I hope so anyway or I'm fooked lol
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    But unexploitable doesn't mean MOST +EV and obv that's what we want. The thread has went a bit off topic, so fwiw, I think it's almost all skills that can be learnt, even more so online. Certain people will have a head start in certain aspects but it can be learned.... I hope so anyway or I'm fooked lol
    Posted by Lambert180

    How do you know GTO is not more profitable





  • edited October 2013
    It may be the most +EV in some spots, what I meant is GTO doesn't necessarily mean that it is automatically the most +EV.

    Tbf, I think it depends on the oppo. Take 4NL for instance, do we want to worry about being unexploitable and maybe giving up EV when most people aren't gonna exploit us anyway. Like do we really need to worry about the fact that against certain players when we overbet jam it's ALWAYS value?
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability:
    In Response to Re: skill v natural ability : I agree that poker is maths, but human response to any given situation cannot be solved. If you put all your chips in the middle, I either call or fold. No computer in the world can know what I am going to do.
    Posted by Slipwater

    Heads up games that are shove / fold and games where the decision trees are:the sb can raise / fold, bb shove / fold, sb call / fold already have been solved for all stack depths.furthermore, at the shorter stacks this closely approximates real play. Similar three-handed games have also been cracked.as rancid said the gto computer wouldn't care about your action, it would already have an optimal response that would guarantee you cant profit over time.

    Checkers is a game that has been recently solved, for every move there is a perfect response. Poker is a game that can be reduced to ranges abd decision trees. Given enough computer power you could formulate appropriate ranges and decision s for every possible betsize, stack depth and opponent action such that no strategy could profit over time against you

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    Deep Blue had an optimal response too, but still couldn't beat Garry Kasparov all the time.
  • edited October 2013
    Chess hasn't been solved. Deep blue computes n the fly, when its solved there will be an appropriate response to  every action.

    Cheers,
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    Well yeh on a more basic level it's been known that HU SnGs (at least at certain stack depths) are 'solved'. This is why MTTs are generally classed as easier/more straight forward/more formulaic in the latter stages. Cash poker is far more complex and so obv harder to 'solve'.

    For instance with 10xBB HU there is a range of hands you can shove where there is absolutely nothing your opponent can do to exploit it. If they go one way and tighten up then they lose cos we steal blinds more than they should allow, go the other way and loosen up with their calling range and they're getting it in bad too often. The only thing they can do is call with an equally unexploitable range and then no1 wins except the rake.
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