I dont think I can but should I?

dabossman

This was the final table and was down to 3 handed. Villian had limped in and I had noticed they had bet flop, check turn fold to a river bet in the past having limped in. When I pick up the draw I think i am going to play the same way and if I hit then I would go with it.

On the river do we ever consider letting this go? I think this is too strong a hand to be folding even on a spade heavy board. I know I should probably be folding the flop bet but as I said I had picked up a few chips following my previous strategy. 

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
V	Small blind		1000.00	1000.00	50267.48
dabossman	Big blind		2000.00	3000.00	22320.00
	Your hole cards	4 5
X	Fold
V	Call		1000.00	4000.00	49267.48
dabossman	Check
Flop
		3 7 K
V	Bet		2000.00	6000.00	47267.48
dabossman	Call		2000.00	8000.00	20320.00
Turn
		6
V	Check
dabossman	Bet		2000.00	10000.00	18320.00
V	Call		2000.00	12000.00	45267.48
River
		J
V	Check
dabossman	Bet		4000.00	16000.00	14320.00
V	All-in

hhyftrftdr

I'm probably betting more on the turn and river, but I don't think I'm folding on the river! 

If they have it, they have it, but this is too good an opportunity to pass. Think I'm snapping tbh.

craigcu12

having decided to just check it preflop the best thing now I think would be to just fold it on the flop because not only is their only 4 cards that would be of any help but also 1 being a spade could be as much a risk as a reward
as for the way it's been played well I would make the call and unlucky if he has it.

Lambert180

I can't call quick enough tbh.

Unlucky.

TeddyBloat

Going off average opponent tendencies:

Unless they have a high spade in their flush, most villains would C/R the turn as they would hate to see a fourth spade hit. He actually gives up the betting lead and turns passive when he hits the hand he later represents. So he's not likely  doing that with vulnerable baby flushes. You'd have to think he would raise his Ax and either raise or fold Qx/Jx with some occassional limps with Q9 or J9 type hands.So that makes a flush unlikely but not impossible.

His line is strange and id look him up

Cheers, 

TEDDY

a00rock

You already have nearly half your stack committed to the pot with 7 bigs left behind. Snap call and prey for the double up.

BorinLoner

Well, I don't think we should be skipping ahead to the river play, that's for sure. We need to question the pre-flop and flop decisions.


Pre-flop:

When the villain makes up the small blind, does this strike you as likely strength or weakness? If he's never limped or made-up before, then we're entirely correct to check because it looks like a trap. If he's limped or made up a lot, then we should certainly consider shoving. We only have 11BB and there are 2BB in the middle, seemingly waiting to be claimed. Even if we are called, we're unlikely to be dominated and will have decent equity. What seems far more likely is that the villain will fold a high proportion of the time and we'll have added 18% to our stack without needing a showdown. That's huge for us at this stage.


On the flop:

Why are we calling this bet? We're too shallow to be floating to rep a turn card, really, because we don't know what the villain is likely to do on the turn. If he bets again on the turn, it won't matter if it's a bad card for his hand, we won't have any fold equity. Floating for such a large proportion of our remaining stack is likely to be a bad idea, anyway. I think we should just fold to this flop lead. If we think the lead is likely to be weak, we can shove over it, but I wouldn't like that. We have so little equity if we're called and, having limped pre-flop, why would he lead out on a board he's completely missed?

We certainly can't afford to be calling just hoping to hit our gut-shot. That's far too unlikely and we're far too shallow to be calling with any draw, let alone a gut-shot.


On the turn:

I really don't like our bet size here. We've hit the magic card and we want to be playing for stacks now. We can't afford to be afraid of the flush because those flushing hands don't form a big part of the villain's range. We can be called here by any King or any decent single-spade and we need to get more value from this spot. If we let the villain call such a small bet here with a draw we can't get any more when he misses the river. We want to make a bet sizing here that makes it easy to get the rest in on the river, but that isn't too difficult for the villain to call. I'd say a 4k-5k bet would be about right. 4k would leave us with 16k and the pot would be 16k - A very natural amount to shove on the river. I'd tend to go towards the 5k bet, though, to make things that bit easier.


On the river:

I think we don't bet big enough for value. It's so likely that we can get called for more by a King, two-pair or low set and we don't want to give the villain a chance to just flat for 4k if he would have called for more. As I say, I think we should have set ourselves up to shove the river for value, but there's still more value there than just 4k.

Once he shoves, obviously were not delighted since his check-raise line should be so much stronger than his check-call range. However, we can still beat his two-pairs and sets and we don't know that he's not doing something silly. If he has the flush, it's a bit unlucky.


So probably shove pre-flop. Don't call the flop. Bet bigger on the turn to set up the shove. As played on the turn, bet bigger on the river and call the shove.