Who was right?

skeg01

Got into an argument during one of my tournys earlier. Blinds were 200/400 i had 6700 chips. The chip leader at the table raises utg to 800, button calls. I have AJs in the small blind and shove, and the chip leader calls with 56 of spades saying afterwards it was the right call mathematically but i disagreed and i stand by it, am i right or wrong here?

The pot was 8k after i shoved, the chip leader had to call about 6k more to win 8k with 56s is it the right call or not? haha

oynutter

You must consider in this scenario, that you could have been up against a flopwit flapheaded accountant, that is not allowed to gamble at work---- If he has put in 10% of pot, he has the odds to gamble

bearlyther

Of course he was right.  This is a snap call with 56 suited

GaryQQQ

Mathmatical answer, this calculation assumes the villain knew your hole-cards;

His 67s has 39% equity against your AJs

So 61% of the time you win and he loses the 5,900 chips it cost to make the call. 39% of the time he wins the pot and profits by 7,900 chips (800 raise + 800 call + 600 blinds + your shove 5700)

61% x -5900 = -3599 chips
39% x +7900 = +3081 chips

So on average his call loses 518 chips. If it's a Bounty Hunter you could argue a head-prize is worth more than 518 chips in which case it's a marginally +ev call.

Obviously he doesn't actually know your exact hole cards before making the call. If he puts you on a wide range that's behind AJs then it becomes less of a mistake.

BTW, there's no point in having arguments at the table whether you think his call is correct or not, poker is supposed to be a fun social game.

CraigSG1

The simple answer is no. He was wrong. He doesnt beat your shoving range in the slightlest and at best he has live cards or racing against 22,33 and 44. It is pure gambling and also bad tournament play. 

FCHD

How big was the chip leader's stack? Surely his play will differ if he has 20K chips or 200K chips?

hhyftrftdr

Over to you, DoubleAAA....

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

Mathmatical answer, this calculation assumes the villain knew your hole-cards; His 67s has 39% equity against your AJs So 61% of the time you win and he loses the 5,900 chips it cost to make the call. 39% of the time he wins the pot and profits by 7,900 chips (800 raise + 800 call + 600 blinds + your shove 5700) 61% x -5900 = -3599 chips 39% x +7900 = +3081 chips So on average his call loses 518 chips. If it's a Bounty Hunter you could argue a head-prize is worth more than 518 chips in which case it's a marginally +ev call. Obviously he doesn't actually know your exact hole cards before making the call. If he puts you on range that's behind AJs then it becomes less of a mistake. BTW, there's no point in having arguments at the table whether you think his call is correct or not, poker is supposed to be a fun social game.
Posted by GaryQQQ

Gary you need to calculate his 56s vs OP entire shoving range, not his specific hand, only then can we work out whether villian has the odds to call or not.  FWIW, I have not calculated whether he should call or not

Edit:

Villian needs to call 6.1k into a 8.9k pot, so villian needs to be good 40.6% of the time for it to be +EV.

Let's look at OP shoving range:

88+, AJs+, AQo+

OP 69.5% vs 30.4%

As we can see, villian only has 30.4% and has to fold.

Now let's give OP a wider range and see what happens:

Villian: 22+, A2o+, A2s+, KJs+, KQo

OP 62% vs 37.9%

Even with this absurdly wide shoving range, villian still is only 37.9% and cannot call.

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

In Response to Re: Who was right? : Gary you need to calculate his 56s vs OP entire shoving range, not his specific hand, only then can we work out whether villian has the odds to call or not.  FWIW, I have not calculated whether he should call or not
Posted by DoubleAAA

I made that clear in my post.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

In Response to Re: Who was right? : I made that clear in my post.
Posted by GaryQQQ

Yes sorry didn't read that part, although against a range less than AJs it's still a fold. OP can shove any Ax and be far ahead of villian.

FCHD

Without being on that particular table, how can you be sure about the OP's shoving range? What might be a shove to you might not be to him/her and vice versa?

hhyftrftdr

Jesus, you really don't need maths or ranges to know it was a poor call!

It's 6 high. Poker is a very simple game sometimes.

ajs4385

Its his chips. Its right for him to do whatever he wants with his chips.

FlyingDagg

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

Jesus, you really don't need maths or ranges to know it was a poor call! It's 6 high. Poker is a very simple game sometimes.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

+1 to this. But he's paid his money he's entitled to do what he wants with his chips.

Sky_Poker

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

Mathmatical answer, this calculation assumes the villain knew your hole-cards; His 67s has 39% equity against your AJs So 61% of the time you win and he loses the 5,900 chips it cost to make the call. 39% of the time he wins the pot and profits by 7,900 chips (800 raise + 800 call + 600 blinds + your shove 5700) 61% x -5900 = -3599 chips 39% x +7900 = +3081 chips So on average his call loses 518 chips. If it's a Bounty Hunter you could argue a head-prize is worth more than 518 chips in which case it's a marginally +ev call. Obviously he doesn't actually know your exact hole cards before making the call. If he puts you on range that's behind AJs then it becomes less of a mistake. BTW, there's no point in having arguments at the table whether you think his call is correct or not, poker is supposed to be a fun social game.
Posted by GaryQQQ

Wise words Gary.

skeg01

I'm not complaining about the call or anything, i did actually win the hand and double up but it was just that the guy was 100% adamant that it was the correct mathematical call whereas i was 100% adamant it wasn't haha. Started to doubt myself a little bit after he just kept going on and on about it, so i thought i'd post it on here to find out who was right once and for all. Knew i was right though :P

IDONKCALLU

id call if i knew u had aj  

The_Don90

depends on if your a lock pro or not

GELDY

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

Jesus, you really don't need maths or ranges to know it was a poor call! It's 6 high. Poker is a very simple game sometimes.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

but it was sooted

and it isn't even maths, we are still at the level of arithmetic here.  But let's not forget that this isn't everyone's strong point

and personally think it is a good thing to discuss at the table as one may learn something new

rancid

If villian wants to think it was the right call, why correct him ?


don't tap...........

unknown_username

Tbh its a poor mathematically speaking but its even poorer to be be telling them why. Just make a note that this player calls very very wide and leave it at that. Why bother giving tips to players you want to beat in future tournaments. 

Mostly its due to ego and feeling they need to justify a play. By the way suited hands only enable a 2% swing equity-wise so is really less than you may think.

longman912

In Response to Re: Who was right?:

In Response to Re: Who was right? : Gary you need to calculate his 56s vs OP entire shoving range, not his specific hand, only then can we work out whether villian has the odds to call or not.  FWIW, I have not calculated whether he should call or not Edit: Villian needs to call 6.1k into a 8.9k pot, so villian needs to be good 40.6% of the time for it to be +EV. Let's look at OP shoving range: 88+, AJs+, AQo+ OP 69.5% vs 30.4% As we can see, villian only has 30.4% and has to fold. Now let's give OP a wider range and see what happens: Villian: 22+, A2o+, A2s+, KJs+, KQo OP 62% vs 37.9% Even with this absurdly wide shoving range, villian still is only 37.9% and cannot call.
Posted by DoubleAAA

surely you require extra table dynamics to make these sort of calculations. how active has hero been, has he shoved before, how many times etc.otherwise how do you put him on 88+?

Lambert180

But when we don't have reads etc we have to put together a rough range of what your 'average joe' would shove cos that's all we can do, and 88+, AJs+ and AQo+ seems about right. Might add in ATs/AJo and 55/66/77 but meh it's all (educated) guesswork readless