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bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's

edited November 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Some background. This is the stone bubble. We're about average stack. Literally slap bang in the midfield. 

We've been relativley active, not overly, but probably not aggressive enough. Table is extremely passive thus i decided not to aggro up at this stage as i would on some. 

Villian is probably one of the biggest stations I've played in a bh tbh. He joined the table around 20 orbits ago, since then hes been in over 2 thirds of the pot, i haven't seen him raise once. 

In hindsight i think that makes an open jam the better option in the first place here, but would like some feedback as played, how do we proceed from here. 

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
angeloftheSmall blind 300.00300.0011027.50
xBig blind 600.00900.0011877.50
 Your hole cards
  • Q
  • A
   
krstovFold    
adair333Fold    
The_Don90Raise 1200.002100.008537.50
angeloftheFold    
xRaise 1200.003300.0010677.50
The_Don90
«1

Comments

  • edited October 2013
    Open jam isn't bad.

    The way you've described the player it looks like an easy fold. Really passive player who never raises click3bets you... you're probably lucky if you're flipping.
  • edited October 2013
    yeuk

    good chance you're flipping at best, not something you want to do on the bubble
    peeling would be ok if deeper, particularly with position, but you don't have the chips
    so a sigh fold is maybe best

    as for open jam - fine in many cases - but here you actually want the calling station to put more into the pot. you have position and a great starting hand after all - and you have seen a lot of how he plays postflop
  • edited October 2013
    Open jamming 16BB's is just way too much. Obv can't be too bad with our holding but anything weaker and it probably becomes bad. I think folding is fine..

    Also your thinking is somewhat backward... you say table is extremely passive and thus the reason for you not "aggro'ing up".... this type of table is perfect for playing aggressive since you easily know where you are in pots and won't be faced with tough decisions.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    Open jamming 16BB's is just way too much. Obv can't be too bad with our holding but anything weaker and it probably becomes bad. I think folding is fine.. Also your thinking is somewhat backward... you say table is extremely passive and thus the reason for you not "aggro'ing up".... this type of table is perfect for playing aggressive since you easily know where you are in pots and won't be faced with tough decisions.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    no it's true what the don says, if his table is the passive type that is when being over aggressive can become big trouble.
    when a passive villain calls don 90 is then left questioning what that villain will have so really would need to hit good post flop as bluffs are much more dangerous.

    the only time that weak passive play can provide us to go over aggressive is if the villain is a weak tight.
  • edited October 2013
    Sigh i have to write this again.

    In responce to F Ivanovic. I want to go into more detail so we can discuss thought process if possible. 

    when i said passive table, i mean i think when i open pre my standard raise is around a min raise to 2.3x, i find that this table was getting multiple callers. Post flop they just hated folding too. Thus I decided to "nit up". I say nit up, i wasn't just waiting for hand, but i was trying to spot select. I had tryed adjusting my open sizing a little to try and get more for value hands, unfortunetly i don't think we can do that with our stack and really it wasn't making much differance so i just re-adjusted and went back to my normal standard open sizing. At these levels is almost always just a min for me. 


    As for the Open jam theory. Basically the logic behind that is that its a bounty hunter, people love to call for a head. My head at the present time of this hand was 4 heads taken at min price so basically its worth 5 heads. Its on the bubble i admit so this does cancel some of the calling lighter theory out, but my heads worth a fiver and both blinds have us covered. We have a good hand v most calling ranges, and if they bust me its basically a tenner (head + guarenteed min cash) + 9k chips in pocket and stack. I know again this is the bubble and most people tighten up, although this hasn't really been the case on this table. 


    I personally like the open jam in hindsight but im not saying its right, and I've posted this hand for discussion, you mentioned thought process(backwards thinking) in your post and i feel that is a weak spot of mine in most cases. Thus I would like to discuss what seem like basic decisions further so i can develop my thought process if you don't mind. 

    Thanks :) 
  • edited October 2013
    ok that makes sense. (re. passive villains)

    Going back to open jamming there's no doubt it will be +ev. Whilst they may very well call shoves with KQ/AJ/AT where you are in fantastic shape they are also going to be calling with all their pocket pairs - and we'll be flipping a lot. If I had a read where they would call a shove with any ace and any broadway cards then shoving probably becomes massively ev+

    That being said min-r or even limping OTB can both be really +ev here especially vs someone who you described as a massive calling station post flop. In fact limping might be slightly preferable since we keep the SPR bigger when we limp and against a player that struggles to fold we do better whent the SPR is bigger. Occasionally we'll get a flop of Q62 and he'll have 62 and we'll go broke but more often than not when we flop top pair and our opponent calls us down with 2nd/TPbk and we pick up a ton of chips.

    I mean everyone likes getting it in as a 70% fave pre which could happen a lot when we shove with AQ (although even vs a wide calling range we're prob on average 60% equity faves) but when you have such a big edge against your opponents it can be more profitable to play post flop poker. If we were on 13bbs or less then I think open jamming suddenly becomes a lot better.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    ok that makes sense. (re. passive villains) Going back to open jamming there's no doubt it will be +ev. Whilst they may very well call shoves with KQ/AJ/AT where you are in fantastic shape they are also going to be calling with all their pocket pairs - and we'll be flipping a lot. If I had a read where they would call a shove with any ace and any broadway cards then shoving probably becomes massively ev+ That being said min-r or even limping OTB can both be really +ev here especially vs someone who you described as a massive calling station post flop. In fact limping might be slightly preferable since we keep the SPR bigger when we limp and against a player that struggles to fold we do better whent the SPR is bigger. Occasionally we'll get a flop of Q62 and he'll have 62 and we'll go broke but more often than not when we flop top pair and our opponent calls us down with 2nd/TPbk and we pick up a ton of chips. I mean everyone likes getting it in as a 70% fave pre which could happen a lot when we shove with AQ (although even vs a wide calling range we're prob on average 60% equity faves) but when you have such a big edge against your opponents it can be more profitable to play post flop poker. If we were on 13bbs or less then I think open jamming suddenly becomes a lot better.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic

    You've changed your tune! ;)

    Given reads, it's probably a reluctant sigh fold. Though raise folding the button with AQ is pretty dirty, but if villain is gonna play his cards face up then needs must. From the brief description, villain doesn't strike me as a thinking player, so whereas you'd go to town with AQ in this spot most times, this looks like a spot to avoid.

    Forgot to add, but limping is far and away the worst option. Quite surprised to see it even mentioned to be honest!

  • edited October 2013
    ty for a good responce F Ivanovic. Lots makes perfect sense. I think I'm now getting to an ability level where i feel i am beating these games, but spots like this I still think slightly backwards and im likee but i have AQ and im on the button f you.


  • edited October 2013
    you have said yourself how the player plays you make a read on a player so stick by your opinion if he hasn't raised in 20 orbits this is an easy fold as he has got to be super strong to make raise going by your read.
    its that read to get away from this hand that will give you the edge over this player
  • edited October 2013
    Since its only 600 to call, is calling horrific and assessing and taking our edge post flop? 
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    Since its only 600 to call, is calling horrific and assessing and taking our edge post flop? 
    Posted by The_Don90
    if you were deeper maybe - but you want to conserve your chips as much as possible with your stack
    and if his range is AA/KK/QQ/AK how many flops you hit are you going to like other than KJT
    and he may just bet/shove any flop
    and you are on the bubble

    so just don't think it is worth it
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : You've changed your tune! ;) Given reads, it's probably a reluctant sigh fold. Though raise folding the button with AQ is pretty dirty, but if villain is gonna play his cards face up then needs must. From the brief description, villain doesn't strike me as a thinking player, so whereas you'd go to town with AQ in this spot most times, this looks like a spot to avoid. Forgot to add, but limping is far and away the worst option. Quite surprised to see it even mentioned to be honest!
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    Haha. Like I said situation and villain dependant. If we know someone will call a shove with massively dominating hands for 13bb's then getting it in pre is fine especially in a BH.

    Also can you explain why limping is the worst option? Since they're defending v-wide we get no fold equity. Yes. he'll put in more money with a worse hand but never a THAT much worse hand. Our profit is going to come from them from their inability to play post flop well so may as well give ourselves as high SPR postflop as possible.

  • edited October 2013
    I dont understand why a high spr is  beneficial here. Id have thought we want a low spr so we can gii if we we hit. aQ is a pretty hot or cold type hand post flop. Im not disagreeing, just dont understand, lol.

    Could you expand on that please mate.

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : Haha. Like I said situation and villain dependant. If we know someone will call a shove with massively dominating hands for 13bb's then getting it in pre is fine especially in a BH. Also can you explain why limping is the worst option? Since they're defending v-wide we get no fold equity. Yes. he'll put in more money with a worse hand but never a THAT much worse hand. Our profit is going to come from them from their inability to play post flop well so may as well give ourselves as high SPR postflop as possible.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Come on Ivan, do you really need me to explain why limping AQ on the button with 16bb is poor play?! 
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : Haha. Like I said situation and villain dependant. If we know someone will call a shove with massively dominating hands for 13bb's then getting it in pre is fine especially in a BH. Also can you explain why limping is the worst option? Since they're defending v-wide we get no fold equity. Yes. he'll put in more money with a worse hand but never a THAT much worse hand. Our profit is going to come from them from their inability to play post flop well so may as well give ourselves as high SPR postflop as possible.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Never THAT worse a hand if he's defending wide. So he won't defend A2-AJ and KQ/QJ/QT/Q9 which we absolutely crush?
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : Never THAT worse a hand if he's defending wide. So he won't defend A2-AJ and KQ/QJ/QT/Q9 which we absolutely crush?
    Posted by Lambert180
    Yes he will defend them hands but he will also go broke with them anyway if we limp in and both flop a piece.

    The only value in raising pre that I see is getting him to fold his complete trash hands that still have 33% equity vs us. And what does that get us? 1.5bb. Hardly going to change our tournament situation that much going from 16bb to 17.5bb. Whereas we can pick up his whole stack if we flop TP and he flops TP as well. We even pick up a lot when he calls down 2 streets with 2nd/3rd pair.

    Yes hhyftdr I'd be enlighightend to know why limping pre-flop is bad in this situation. Worst case scenario(s) - he stacks us post flop with a hand he would have folded to a pfr - or we limp and have to fold post-flop losing 1bb. 1bb really isn't that much on a table that's going to pay you off post-flop when you hit. Winning 1.5bb on a good table though I'm always more than happy with so there I obviously would never want to limp AQ OTB.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : Yes he will defend them hands but he will also go broke with them anyway if we limp in and both flop a piece. The only value in raising pre that I see is getting him to fold his complete trash hands that still have 33% equity vs us. And what does that get us? 1.5bb. Hardly going to change our tournament situation that much going from 16bb to 17.5bb. Whereas we can pick up his whole stack if we flop TP and he flops TP as well. We even pick up a lot when he calls down 2 streets with 2nd/3rd pair. Yes hhyftdr I'd be enlighightend to know why limping pre-flop is bad in this situation. Worst case scenario(s) - he stacks us post flop with a hand he would have folded to a pfr - or we limp and have to fold post-flop losing 1bb. 1bb really isn't that much on a table that's going to pay you off post-flop when you hit. Winning 1.5bb on a good table though I'm always more than happy with so there I obviously would never want to limp AQ OTB.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Nuff said. Digging our own poker grave.
  • edited October 2013
    SIIIIIIIGGGGHHHHHHHH

    I just wrote a mega long post.  Put a bit of time interrogating others thought processes aswell as yours and sky decided to log me out and i lost it!

    Suppose it can all be summed up by one word:

    Fold.


    FAO Ivanovic:

    Limp = bad.



    Sigh.
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : Nuff said. Digging our own poker grave.
    Posted by hhyftrftdr
    And how often is that going to happen? Answer: Extremely rarely. Say he folds 25o to a pfr and the flop is A25.. we lose our stack. But the flop could also come A59. And he might well call 2 bets with bottom pair. 

    Since villain is defending 75% of hands a min-r is just not going to work enough of the time to be +ev. Nor is a c-bet post-flop because of villains propensity to call. So we basically need to just value town him at every oppertunity - and higher SPR's work best in value towning someone.

    Balance isn't going to be all that important but against someone just really bad post I'm going to want to be playing a lot of hands with them in position. And so I don't just want to raise a tight range - I want to be seeing flops with all sorts of good playable hands. 

    Do we raise 22-55 OTB here btw? If we raise 55 we're not really going to be giving ourselves good odds to setmine. And with these hands set-mining/cheap showdown is the only thing we're interested in vs this villain. So basically we're going to have to be raise/giving up way too much post-flop for the pfr with 55 to be profitable. 
  • edited October 2013
  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's : And how often is that going to happen? Answer: Extremely rarely. Say he folds 25o to a pfr and the flop is A25.. we lose our stack. But the flop could also come A59. And he might well call 2 bets with bottom pair.  Since villain is defending 75% of hands a min-r is just not going to work enough of the time to be +ev. Nor is a c-bet post-flop because of villains propensity to call. So we basically need to just value town him at every oppertunity - and higher SPR's work best in value towning someone. Balance isn't going to be all that important but against someone just really bad post I'm going to want to be playing a lot of hands with them in position. And so I don't just want to raise a tight range - I want to be seeing flops with all sorts of good playable hands.  Do we raise 22-55 OTB here btw? If we raise 55 we're not really going to be giving ourselves good odds to setmine. And with these hands set-mining/cheap showdown is the only thing we're interested in vs this villain. So basically we're going to have to be raise/giving up way too much post-flop for the pfr with 55 to be profitable. 
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    Don't like any of this tbh.

    Ofc we raise 55 - raise of fold anyway.  Do I really need to explain why limping in with a range of hands just cause we want to see a flop is really bad?
  • edited October 2013
    As I said to hhyftdr - yes an explanation would be grand! Why do we need to raise or fold? Surely we want to be seeing as many flops as possible against players that are just really loose/passive. There is no way that limping on the BTN can not be +ev compared to folding. 

    One of the reasons we raise in poker is to take the initiative - but initiative means buggar all against the villains we are playing against here. Another is to build the pot with strong hands so we can get our stacks in if we flop well. As seen here - not a problem with the SPR, we will get stacks in anyway. Or we can raise to induce shoves from worse - not going to happen here. I mean we are raise/folding AQ otb ffs! With a 16bb stack. 


  • edited October 2013
    If wr are raise folding its because hes only raising us a tiny fraction of all the times that we raise. So 95% of the time we wont be raise folding.

    25% of the time he's folding, 5% he's clicking back and 70% of tbe time we get to play in position against a passive player who will probably allow us to realise our high card equity when we both miss and pay us off when we both hit. We can play pretty perfectly against him here. Also id argue that with a hand like AQo we want low SPR as we want to get it in profitably with top pair. Doesnt that suit low SPRs?.

    I dont think we can play as perfectly against his range if we limp. We wont ever limp fold AQo here and we are probably going to be calling when behind or dominated a bunch of the time without ever knowing if he's raised us because we've limped or because he is uberstrong.


    If we limp we also invite the SB to the party.

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    With AQ we do want a lower SPR but I think I replied earlier on that point in that the SPR is low enough already. In a cash game with deep stacks I would never limp with AQ OTB vs these villains because lowering SPR is beneficial in that we can get stacks in post-flop much more easily. Here - not a problem. We can profitably get it in with TP just as much when we limp as when we raise. Although villain may get it in wider in a raised pot - he also might pay us off with hands he would have folded pre to a raise.

     If villain is really as passive as described then he isn't raising pf with anything that AQ dominates so in theory if we were to limp we can limp/f in the same way we are raise/folding to a min-3bet here. And I think post flop we can realise our equity just as much as in a limped pot.

    Inviting SB along when we limp is one good reason to raise here BUT that being said I think Hero said the whole table was pretty passive. So we probably still get to realise our equity a bunch even if we do invite SB along - and if SB is a loose calling station as well then we might get to stack him instead post flop when we both flop top pair.

    I dunno it's probably pretty close. Raising might be more +ev but it's definitely going to be higher variance and against bad villains I try and reduce variance as much as possible. Personally I think we can play almost 50% of hands in this situation OTB with it being +ev. Not only +ev but also low variance due to passive nature of villains. But if we're raising all the time villains (even relatively passive ones) may well shove lighter than otherwise they would. So we end up having to raise/fold some stuff that had we limped we could much more easily realise our equity. 





  • edited October 2013
    In Response to Re: bounty hunter, stone bubble, AQ about 16bb deep. LP station suddenly click 3b's:
    Open jamming 16BB's is just way too much. Obv can't be too bad with our holding but anything weaker and it probably becomes bad. I think folding is fine.. Also your thinking is somewhat backward... you say table is extremely passive and thus the reason for you not "aggro'ing up".... this type of table is perfect for playing aggressive since you easily know where you are in pots and won't be faced with tough decisions.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
  • edited October 2013
    I like your thinking and reasoning mate, on balance i still think raising does much better than limping but you always get us to quesion why we follow conventional wisdom, keep it up its really helpful.

    One other question, on page one you said having a high SPR works better for us, why is that. I dont get it.

    Cheers, 
    TEDDY
  • edited October 2013
    Ivan; I respect your game, and think you're one of, if not the best, cash players on the site at the stakes you play.

    But I cannot fathom why open limping AQ on the button into a weak, passive villain on the BB will ever be the correct tournament play. I genuinely cannot comprehend the logic behind it. Are we trying to trap him with A high? Are we folding to a lead on an 8 high flop? Look for a cheap showdown on a raggy board?

    It's not often raise/folding AQ on the button with 16bb will appear to be the correct play, but if villain wants to play his cards face up, then great. 
  • edited October 2013
    @ gazza: I said that initially thinking villains were tight pre-flop :)

    @ Teddy: By high SPR I don't mean really high - it needs to be low enough to get stacks in post flop if we choose. It works better for us though in general because we have a post flop edge. In this hand for instance we only want to get stacks in post-flop when we hit an A or Q. We might c-bet some really dry flops for value/protection.

    @hh: thanks. I know your a v.good tournament player so respect your opinion wrt tournament hands! Like Teddy said though I like to challenge convential wisdom a lot and do think we can do so here. I know it' not often raise/folding AQ onthe BTN is correct and in the same way it's not often limping AQ is correct. Can I ask how you are playing the hand then - are you min-r pre?

    Now flop comes 6T2... do we c-bet, if so, how big a c-bet and why? If called we surely have to then give up unless we hit since villain is just not going to fold. Suddenly we're down to 11-12bb. (depending on your c-bet size) Had we limped we would not feel obliged to c-bet although could still take a 1bb stab on a dry board. And 15bb is still playable. I mean there's no doubt raising is +ev it's just going to be higher variance than limping since  sometimes we'll pick up an extra couple of BB's but other times we'll end up losing enough to give us a stack size where we can now only shove/fold. To answer some of your other questions - yes, we can fold to a lead on an 8 high flop. For the same reason we are raise/folding pre. And we can look for showdown on a lot of runouts and happily realise our equity - we can do the same when we raise pre-flop but it just costs us an extra BB. This is why we wouldn't limp AQ vs good players because we are much less likely to realise our equity by doing so. 

    The main thing we're looking at is getting villains stack. And I maintain that will be possible whether we limp or raise with AQ. If it comes A high and they have an A they will pay us off and same thing if it comes Q high and they have a Q.

    I posted this on another forum as well but the general conensus there was limping was bad and that shoving was the best play. I think some of them didn't read the part about no ante's though. I mean shoving - yes, it's good to pick up the 1.5bb uncontested. And if villain calls with any Ax and a lot of Qx then we will often have v.good equity vs their calling range. But even so it will only be 60% on avg I think. Which means 4/10 times we will go out of the tournament against a villain we know we can play perfectly post flop against. Also even though balance may not be important I really don't want to be shoving very wide OTB. But do I really want to be folding stuff like JhTh OTB just because shoving won't be profitable? Not really. 

    15-25bb deep I think constructing a BTN limping range even against most villains can be a good play. Partly because people don't know how to react to limps with this stack size. I mean what do you do if I limp OTB and you're in the BB with A9 and 17bb's? Do you shove? Seems a big amount to shove. Do you raise/fold? What happens when you raise and get a nasty flop - now you're OOP and have tricky decisions to make. So because of this lots of players will just check and see a flop. So now we get to play IP with a SPR behind us still of a decent size. And BB will no doubt find it tough not to make mistakes. 

    Raising though gives them a much easier decision with a 17bb stack size. They shove or they fold/sometimes see a flop (with hands that flop well - JT/QJ/KJ/KT) and some slow plays like AA/KK. And our positional advantage of the BTN becomes obsolete.
  • edited October 2013
    Wow when i posted this hand i never expected this much debate. 

    Will have a proper read through when less tilted so i can take it all in. Thanks all
  • edited November 2013
    I've just skimmed over this really and I didn't want to post on it because I thought I'd end up in a big debate with F_Ivanovic...

    However, if we min-raise pre-flop and there's a station in the blinds, yes we're putting an extra big blind in when we know we're going to be called, against someone who won't fold any better hands than ours to a c-bet post-flop. When he puts more money in pre-flop with a worse hand than ours pre-flop, though, we are making profit in the long run.

    When we limp, he doesn't put that extra blind in when we're ahead. That means we make less profit in the long run.

    So the solution to playing a 16BB stack in position wouldn't appear to be limping to give him the chance to avoid making a decision that gains us value. The solution would appear to be to raise pre-flop and check flops we've missed or don't have good equity on, since we can only fold out weaker hands than ours. A lot of the time we still have the best hand but can't bluff or value bet.



    If we limp, we might still be able to stack the villain if we both hit but the rest of the time we're missing extra pre-flop value. We're not both going to hit the board that often, but that will happen no less often when we're raising than when we're limping.

    So if we think he's that big a station and doesn't fold when he's hit, as well as only betting when he hits big, we have an easy raise pre-flop and check when we miss or on bad boards. If we're not fussed about limping and giving up 1BB when we miss, then why not raise and give up 2BB the times we miss but also win an extra big blind on the occasions we hit and the villain misses, or when we both miss?
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