TP TK dry board and in position

craigcu12

my readings on the nl4 villians have changed a bit.
they don't seem to be the calling stations who call all streets, the villians now seem to be the fish who will see a flop but if he missed he folds.
the only thing that hasn't changed is their weak play
9/10 villians who do big bets will still hold a monster and TBH i think I've let myself down with calling them too many times which is bad when i don't seem to be getting the big pot sizes with winning hands.

the pattern itself has got me thinking if the board is a very dry board rather than make a bet should i just check allowing a free card because i will know for sure that if a massive bet size gets made i'm likely to be loosing.

MR-CHIPS-D	Small blind		£0.02	£0.02	£5.45
jezsmith	Big blind		£0.04	£0.06	£2.33
	Your hole cards	A Q
x	Call		£0.04	£0.10	£3.58
craigcu12	Raise		£0.20	£0.30	£2.96
KrazyAce	Fold
yewasson	Fold
MR-CHIPS-D	Fold
jezsmith	Fold
x	Call		£0.16	£0.46	£3.42
Flop
		3 7 Q
x	Check
craigcu12	?

Phantom66

In that particular spot - if you know your opponent is folding with nothing - definitely worth a check on such a dry board.

You are only really going to need to slow down on a K and a bet from opponent which is very unlikely to come on the turn.

Hopefully villain will hit a lower pair or pick up a flush or str8 draw - or try a bluff, on the turn card.

Lambert180

100% bet this flop

Would we bet if we had AK? or are we just gonna start only betting bluffs and checking all our big made hands?

NColley

4nl = tight range with a strong value betting strategy. (the reason we have to/should play a tight range is the rake, at 7.5% you're going to get destroyed by the rake playing high VPIP) In this spot you make money from the people that call down with weaker Qs. Currently we have a hand that we want 3 streets of value. That is, we want to bet and get called 3 times. 

BorinLoner

I'd like to see more of a specific read on the opponent, rather than a thought that "XYZ is how people play at NL4".

If we think this particular villain is check-folding every time he's missed, then I agree with phantom that we should check back here. It's a flop that's really hard for him to have hit and we have a big hand versus his pre-flop limp-call range. Why bet if he's just going to fold a lot, if checking could see us gain more value on later streets? If he's folding a lot, we're not going to play for stacks often enough on this flop to make betting more +EV than checking to extract a little more value from a wider range.

If we think this particular villain is a bit of a station, then we can bet here because in the long-run we'll play for stacks often enough to make it more +EV than checking and extracting a smaller amount of value from a wider range.


One thing's for sure; if we check it's not because we're afraid we might be beaten. Alright if we're certain that pot-sized bets from this particular villain always means super-strength, we can get away on later streets, but the purpose of checking is to extract more value while holding a hand that we're confident is ahead.

In a vacuum, I'd check back here.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: TP TK dry board and in position:

100% bet this flop Would we bet if we had AK? or are we just gonna start only betting bluffs and checking all our big made hands?
Posted by Lambert180

Another question would be; What would we do with weaker Qx hands here or JJ and below? If we're checking those hands, we can comfortably check AQ too.

Lambert180

We have iso'd an UTG limper and it is 4NL so I'm never gonna be that light here, like I'll probably never have Q8 (although if I did, I'd cbet it). but I'd be cbetting every Qx hand in my range, JJ and any ands which have completely missed that I might iso with... AJ/AK/KJ 100% of the time.

craigcu12

my reading on this villain is he would want to see almost any flop. but then if he missed he would so easily just give up the reason for that is it seemed even 4p was too much for him to call on a lot of the occasions so he was certainly not the same calling station post flop as he is pre.

Lambert180

Yeah these are the people we love, loose/passive pre and completely fit or fold postflop. So we can just iso-late him virtually 100% of the time (the only thing we're thinking about is whether other players get involved behind us) and then just cbet 100% of flops.

Imo this is even more of a reason to bet. If he has any piece of the flop then he calls, if he's gonna fold then the chances of him hitting a 6 outter (assuming he just has any 2 unpaired cards and wants a pair) on the turn is pretty slim and he doesn't seem the type to bluff.