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Nightmare NL4 session: Any Arguments For Folding Turn?
I think this call on the turn is pretty standard. However, on the back of a two hour, five buy-in losing session, I'm doubting my perceptions.
Reads on villains are that Spock has been opening a lot and the dynamic between he and Kirk has seen Kirk 3-betting a fair amount. Not seen many showdowns but Kirk's almost certainly doing it light... or running golden.
I didn't want to cold 4-bet and force out all the weaker hands. Even though cold calling looks just as strong, I don't think these two are going to think that way.
Flop is beautiful. We must raise but how do we feel about the raise size?
Turn is ugly. Looks like a flush, smells like a flush, quacks like a flush... can we ever fold?
We're getting 29% on the call. We're about 20%-23% against the made flush (or bizarrely played straight). Can we be certain enough?
Reads on villains are that Spock has been opening a lot and the dynamic between he and Kirk has seen Kirk 3-betting a fair amount. Not seen many showdowns but Kirk's almost certainly doing it light... or running golden.
I didn't want to cold 4-bet and force out all the weaker hands. Even though cold calling looks just as strong, I don't think these two are going to think that way.
Flop is beautiful. We must raise but how do we feel about the raise size?
Turn is ugly. Looks like a flush, smells like a flush, quacks like a flush... can we ever fold?
We're getting 29% on the call. We're about 20%-23% against the made flush (or bizarrely played straight). Can we be certain enough?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk | Small blind | £0.02 | £0.02 | £11.61 | |
| BorinLoner | Big blind | £0.04 | £0.06 | £5.88 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Chekov | Fold | ||||
| Spock | Raise | £0.10 | £0.16 | £3.90 | |
| Kirk | Raise | £0.42 | £0.58 | £11.19 | |
| BorinLoner | Call | £0.40 | £0.98 | £5.48 | |
| Spock | Fold | ||||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Kirk | Bet | £0.74 | £1.72 | £10.45 | |
| BorinLoner | Raise | £2.00 | £3.72 | £3.48 | |
| Kirk | Call | £1.26 | £4.98 | £9.19 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| Kirk | Bet | £3.74 | £8.72 | £5.45 | |
| BorinLoner | All-in | £3.48 | £12.20 | £0.00 | |
| Kirk | Unmatched bet | £0.26 | £11.94 | £5.71 | |
Comments
If Kirk is super busy and not getting shown down much I think it's an insta-call on the turn.
Kirk could have Ah+K,J,T (hopefully not Q) any 2 pair combo or lower set - could even be worse than that and just representing a flush.
With the outs to draw to the FH if you need to I think it's an easy call.
A fold can only be correct if facing the sort of player who would only get their chips in with a made flush in that spot.
Kirk definitely sounds like someone who will take a chance expecting to get away with it - Spock wouldn't entertain such an illogical move.
All sounds like an opportunity for a book on reading poker player types based on Star Trek characters!
Kirk - definitely a LAG
Spock - definitely pure mathematical player
Bones - Very timid - cares too much about his chip stack tight and very passive
Scotty - Emotional - liable to tilt
Uhuru - good communicator - gets good reads and talks you out of hands you should be winning
The uncredited security guard/lieutenant - definitely a newb who isn't going to last long
But...
Why would villain flat the flop-raise with two-pair, weaker sets, bare gut-shot draws, etc. just to jam when a bad card hits? Surely two-pairs and what-not just get it in on the flop or check this turn?
So is my top set just a bluff catcher and how likely, without a particular dynamic between the villain and myself, is it that the villain's calling a raise on this flop to rep a flush on the turn? How often does he have a bluff?
I suppose without the knowledge that the villain is competent, I can't fold. If there's even a small chance he's playing "interestingly" with weaker value hands, I comfortably have the price I need.
But no Sulu or Chekov?
Ah +paired card makes the most sense to me with the line taken - if villain hasn't already made a flush.
I do see plenty of players though who will flat with marginal hands and turn it into a bluff when a scare card hits.
Should add that Scotty definitely has a good understanding of the mechanics of the game and can improvise in difficult situations.
My take would be to 4bet pre faltting or 4betting both look strong. I presume your trying to look more fishy than strong by flatting which i understand at this level flatting can come accross as such as enough people do it with junk but i think 4betting pre will make all decsions down the streets easier + give you the betting lead and you don't really want to be taking kk 3 way unless there is a chance you can get it in on the flop good.
As played, he cbets strong seems to like his hand we can presume i think to around 2.40 would be more preferable as it is a very wet board but that just nit picking. Turn is just Yuk we're beating some 2 prs and 1 heart 1 pairs the fact he is not playing in flow makes it slightly more likely he doesn't have the flush i think a call here is ok but its not a nice situation to be in.
Summary 4bet pre but having got here calling bet is fine imo
The flop is gorgeous. Give me this flop with KK every time! Yes there's a good chance that I might lose the hand, but this is the type of flop we get paid on. Lots of combo-hands, two-pairs and sets in a wide 3-better's range and I'm crushing most of them, favourite against all of them. Even AQ is only a small favourite against us. I'd much rather have a flop like this than a safe flop like K24 or something where we struggle to get stacks in.
I'm still getting stuck with the idea of how I would play a particular hand and I would see no reason to flat flop and lead turn with sets or two-pair hands. Although, I probably wouldn't flat the flop and lead the turn with hearts here, either.
I wasn't sure about that flop raise sizing. I wanted to make it too tempting for him to fold much of his range and this size makes it easy to get it in with one more bet... however, any raise makes me seem committed, so I wonder if I might as well go bigger for max value.