help, should I fold to shove?!

mrdavies

mrdavies	Small blind		15.00	15.00	3060.00
matisback	Big blind		30.00	45.00	4170.00
	Your hole cards	A Q
RANGERSCHA	Fold
robbo343	Raise		60.00	105.00	2090.00
SoLack	Raise		90.00	195.00	2590.00
mrdavies	Call		75.00	270.00	2985.00
matisback	Fold
robbo343	Call		30.00	300.00	2060.00
Flop
		7 8 Q
mrdavies	Check
robbo343	Check
SoLack	Bet		225.00	525.00	2365.00
mrdavies	Raise		630.00	1155.00	2355.00
robbo343	Fold
SoLack	All-in		2365.00	3520.00	0.00
mrdavies	All-in		2355.00	5875.00	0.00
mrdavies	Unmatched bet		395.00	5480.00	395.00
mrdavies	Show	A Q
SoLack	Show	K K
Turn
		9
River
		10
SoLack	Win	Pair of Kings	5480.00		5480.00

TeddyBloat

Ill try and do a range analysis. Couldnt do this in game,  and in all honesty would prolly call, but is useful post. 

He 3bet on the button, lets give him a 3betting range of 

99+, AT+, KJs+, KQ, JTs, T9s, and a few suited bluffs, say Q4s, T5s, 85s

We are about even preflop with that range, but are out of position and not closing the betting in a 3bet pot. Not ideal. case for 4betting or folding pre?

However we are well ahead of his overall range on that flop, certainly ahead of his cbetting range.

But what hands does he 3bet our c/raise with?Lets assume all his spade draws, sets, overpairs and open ended draws note  he neednt outright bluff here as he has so many semi bluffs in his range and they all have decent equity against most holdings.

QQ+, AsKs, AsJs, AsTs, KsJs, T9, Ts5s

We are crushed by this range.

Not sure why we check raise. He so rarely flats here, only KQ and maybe AQ TT and JJ? and we can account for half the queens and one ace. He folds most of his range, calls with a very narrow range and can shove the rest. All his draws are uber strong and can shove over aggression. We are best calling and keeping his cbetting range in play on the turn. He also over bets the pot which is usually nuts or air, but he neednt have air here and even his semibluffs do well against us, hes likely to have an overcard as well as a flush draw as he 3bet pre.

Also we should note our perceived range. We flatted and our percieved range contains a lot more draws and Qx than his range, we can also have more sets, but they are unlikely. 

He is shoving over a range that both smacks the flop harder than his range and has check raised the agressor in a 3bet pot. 

We dont often want to fold top-top, but our call pre and check raise post has put us in a situation were we probably have to.

Gross spot, innit.

Cheers,TEDDY

hhyftrftdr

Quite happy to 4bet fold AQ here, or even just fold pre if feeling nitty.

As played, no need to raise that flop. We only really get action from hands that beat us or have ridiculous equity vs us (9 10 spades for example).

Think you'd need pretty solid reads to get 90bb effective in on that flop with TPTK and be good. 

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?!:

Quite happy to 4bet fold AQ here, or even just fold pre if feeling nitty. As played, no need to raise that flop. We only really get action from hands that beat us or have ridiculous equity vs us (9 10 spades for example). Think you'd need pretty solid reads to get 90bb effective in on that flop with TPTK and be good. 
Posted by hhyftrftdr

This intrigues me ↑ I'd be interested to hear your reasoning to help my own game.

See I would always check raise here like OP. Mainly to charge anybody on draws but happy to show strength and take the pot there and then as there are a ton of scary turn cards for us to navigate oop.

If you're flatting the flop what is your plan for turn and river?

Check & call turn, check & call river? (assuming villain uses normal bet sizing)

If the turn goes check check are we leading out on the river? 

TeddyBloat

what sort of draws does he have after 3betting though? not many, but those he does have are combo draws with overcards, backdoor and striaght and flush potential. the weakest draw he has is an open ended draw, if he flats that draw and shoves the rest along with his value hands then we are a dog with AQ v that range.

so we can only get value when he flats. what does he flat though? AQ, KQ, QJ, T9, maybe JJ with the Js if he'sthinks we are at it. we can account for half the queens in the deck and one ace. so his flatting range is gonna be thin. 

one benefit to c/raising is that we fold out 99, TT, JJ, AK, AJ, AT, KJ, maybe QJ if the J is not a spade. and all his bluffs. but that's only a marginal benefit. if he hits an Ace that's great for us, and the rest has little equity against our holding. by calling we keep all that range in play on blank turn and rivers.

on scare cards we have to remember that having flatted pre our range contains way more draws, 2pairs and sets than does his on this flop. scare cards are going to be way scarier for his range than ours. 

i gave him a range of 99+, AT+, KJs+, KQ,QJs, JTs, T9s, and a few suited bluffs, say Q4s, T5s, 85s

maybe he 3bets offsuit QJ, JT, T9, maybe that affects the equities, dunno.

have a play with pokerstove to see how the villains in your games fare on that board v AQo

tis a horrible spot but one that shows why we should have either position or the betting lead and preferably both in 3bet pots. having c/raised i think we have to fold v his range

cheers,

TEDDY

Lambert180

Really bad to check/raise here cos imo we'd always have to be check/raise/folding unless we have some sick reads to say otherwise which is really bad. Just check/call and assess on future streets.

FWIW, I'd 4bet too, it's only been a minraise and a click3bet, so not showing big strength really and we had a very strong hand... would be showing massive strength to do this silly size raise and then 5bet, then it would be an easy fold.

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?!:

Quite happy to 4bet fold AQ here, or even just fold pre if feeling nitty. As played, no need to raise that flop. We only really get action from hands that beat us or have ridiculous equity vs us (9 10 spades for example). Think you'd need pretty solid reads to get 90bb effective in on that flop with TPTK and be good. 
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Why are we 4-bet folding pre?

We can't be 4-betting for value and I'm not sure there is merit in turning AQ into a bluff here when the 3-bet is so small - there just isn't enough dead money in the pot to merit trying to bluff here. Also the hands that he might fold to a 4-bet plus further aggression aren't hands he would be 3-betting this small with. ie. 99-JJ/QQ? Min 3bets are often either really strong (AA/KK) or weaker hands that just want to take the initiative. If his 3-bet was to a normal size then 4-betting might be more of an option.

I think calling pre (given how small it is) is OK if you're prepared to fold strong hands post flop to heavy aggression. I would definitely just be flatting flop and evaluating turn. Raising for value is too thin. Once we've raised I think we have to get away from our hand. I don't see him shoving anything worse for value except maybe AQ as well. And if he has a draw it's going to be a super strong one (ie. flush + SD) with good equity.

jdsallstar

ok so we flat the flop, what about the turn.....

Assuming we check and he barrels again and it's:

a) a scare card?
b) a blank? 

Flat the blank fold the scare or fold both?!

*Scare cards - /> A - 2 spades, all kings/jacks/tens/9's/6's. 7's and 8's to a lessor extent.

If he checks the turn as well I'm assuming we check most rivers as well (apart from when non spade ace, queen hits or if it runs out blank blank)

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?!:

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?! : Why are we 4-bet folding pre? We can't be 4-betting for value and I'm not sure there is merit in turning AQ into a bluff here when the 3-bet is so small - there just isn't enough dead money in the pot to merit trying to bluff here. Also the hands that he might fold to a 4-bet plus further aggression aren't hands he would be 3-betting this small with. ie. 99-JJ/QQ? Min 3bets are often either really strong (AA/KK) or weaker hands that just want to take the initiative. If his 3-bet was to a normal size then 4-betting might be more of an option. I think calling pre (given how small it is) is OK if you're prepared to fold strong hands post flop to heavy aggression. I would definitely just be flatting flop and evaluating turn. Raising for value is too thin. Once we've raised I think we have to get away from our hand. I don't see him shoving anything worse for value except maybe AQ as well. And if he has a draw it's going to be a super strong one (ie. flush + SD) with good equity.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Sigh, just did a long reply but it froze, forum tilt basically....

-Not a fan of playing AQo out of position, esp after that action, passively.

-As you say, min 3bet is either premium that crushes us or something a bit more 'fruity'.

-We have a strong yet vulnerable hand; probably too strong to fold but one that we shouldn't be going too crazy with. As played, we hit a Q high flop and we were in no mans land.

-4bet to perhaps 225 or so will define villains range. Easy fold to a 5bet, if they peel then a cbet will often win the pot as we now have the initiative, or we take it down pre. More importantly, if we 4bet and get called it caps their range. Occasionally a tricky villain might flat with AA/KK, but generally speaking if they flat us it caps their range at pairs up to JJ and suited broadway cards. We can then proceed with this info onto the flop and beyond.

JD, most have covered it but I shall do a reply in a bit.

hhyftrftdr

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?!:

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?! : This intrigues me  ↑ I'd be interested to hear your reasoning to help my own game. See I would always check raise here like OP. Mainly to charge anybody on draws but happy to show strength and take the pot there and then as there are a ton of scary turn cards for us to navigate oop. If you're flatting the flop what is your plan for turn and river? Check & call turn, check & call river? (assuming villain uses normal bet sizing) If the turn goes check check are we leading out on the river? 
Posted by jdsallstar

Teddy pretty much covers it, but shall throw my hat into the ring. Simply comes down to villains range. I don't think we need to ''charge for draws'' as there are more draws in our range than theirs. Raising here will fold out villains bluffs, and also sway them into folding their 1010/JJ type hands that we are comfortably ahead of. On the flipside, we get action on this flop from AQ (split obvs), AA, KK and QQ (all crush us).

How you proceed in the hand will depend on how you perceive the villain. If you feel they are capable of bluffing 2, maybe 3 streets, then best to call them down (not many players on Sky fall into this category I think) should they barrell. If they keep betting, then perhaps best to bin AQ on the turn if we don't think they are trying to bluff us off our hand. You might think folding TPTK to a second bet is too nitty, but if we decide their range now only mostly consists of hands that beat us then we might as well have 2 5 in this spot. The bets are only going to get bigger on each street as well.

The above is why I would sometimes (villain dependent) 4bet AQ pre here. Ivan disagrees but we rarely agree on MTT strat In all seriousness, I covered most of it in my reply to him. We can comfortably 4bet fold AQ here, costing us maybe 2-250 chips should we get 5bet. But at least we are then safe in the knowledge that our AQ is probably no good, and get away from it pretty easily. As played, we've hit TPTK, gone to war and lost most of our stack needlessly.

Whisper this, but I might sometimes even just fold AQ in this spot

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?!:

In Response to Re: help, should I fold to shove?! : Teddy pretty much covers it, but shall throw my hat into the ring. Simply comes down to villains range. I don't think we need to ''charge for draws'' as there are more draws in our range than theirs. Raising here will fold out villains bluffs, and also sway them into folding their 1010/JJ type hands that we are comfortably ahead of. On the flipside, we get action on this flop from AQ (split obvs), AA, KK and QQ (all crush us). How you proceed in the hand will depend on how you perceive the villain. If you feel they are capable of bluffing 2, maybe 3 streets, then best to call them down (not many players on Sky fall into this category I think) should they barrell. If they keep betting, then perhaps best to bin AQ on the turn if we don't think they are trying to bluff us off our hand. You might think folding TPTK to a second bet is too nitty, but if we decide their range now only mostly consists of hands that beat us then we might as well have 2 5 in this spot. The bets are only going to get bigger on each street as well. The above is why I would sometimes (villain dependent) 4bet AQ pre here. Ivan disagrees but we rarely agree on MTT strat In all seriousness, I covered most of it in my reply to him. We can comfortably 4bet fold AQ here, costing us maybe 2-250 chips should we get 5bet. But at least we are then safe in the knowledge that our AQ is probably no good, and get away from it pretty easily. As played, we've hit TPTK, gone to war and lost most of our stack needlessly. Whisper this, but I might sometimes even just fold AQ in this spot
Posted by hhyftrftdr

thanks for that!

F_Ivanovic

I guess vs a lot of villains on sky we can exploitively 4-bet/fold AQ. I might try and exploit you for doing so, but you probably wouldn't fold to a 5bet against me :P I just think 4-betting basically allows villain to get away from all his KQ/QJ hands and worse Ax hands and we'll instead only be called by hands that beat us and speculative set making/straight making hands which only give us action post flop if they hit anyway. 

I guess it also depends on how comfortable you are playing OOP. 4betting definitely does make the hand easier to play though! Just not sure if it's always the most ev.

BorinLoner

I would absolutely hate 4-betting this spot pre-flop. I say that partly because the OP has left the villain's name in the hand history.

This 3-bet sizing is virtually never going to be a bluff. It's almost always going to be nutted, and a nutted range crushes our AQ. That makes folding our AQ the best option, out of position..

If you don't believe that this 3-bet is likely to be nutted, then calling is overwhelmingly the best option. We keep both villains' ranges wide. We don't want to 4-bet and either be forced to fold to a 5-bet or play a flop, out of position, against someone who has flatted a pre-flop cold-4-bet with 100BBeff stacks. How often does a c-bet really get through against the range of either player for flatting that 4-bet?

On the flop, check-calling is best. The villain can be betting with worse than our hand but only continues with better hands than ours if we check-raise. Also, we have to ask how likely is it that the villain has 3-bet the button with hands that can be drawing on this board. We can put perhaps 9sTs or certainly AsKs in his range but they only make up a small portion of his range. So the hands he continues with to our check-raise are overwhelmingly better hands and hands with great equity. If he folds, we're just forcing him to fold hands we beat.


If we check-call, we're doing so intending to reassess future streets. Someone mentioned that the As would be a bad card for us on the turn or river. It would actually be a brilliant card. We hold the Qs and we would then know that the As was not in the villain's range. So which hands is he 3-betting pre-flop and betting this flop with, that can contain two spades but not the As?


We can't be afraid to give up TPTK if we think that the villain is only barrelling better hands. We have to decide on each street what we think the chances are of being good. Our plan is to call here and narrow villain's range down on later streets. If villain keeps betting on turn and river, how likely is it to be a bluff given the action?

hhyftrftdr

I def fold AQ pre to that action if I know I'll be up against Solack for the hand.

Vs a random/unknown, I may still 4bet AQ here, just to clarify.