River decision?

LARSON7

This hand here i think i need to bet more on the flop and turn. Just out of interest bet sizing on the turn? I should have bet more mayve 75% pot, or 80%. I'm pretty sure i have the best hand,against against their range for sure i need to be betting more on the turn. On the river feel i need to bet here for value i'm getting called by a lot worse. I think its a sigh call on the river i just felt i was ahead all the way. I felt they could have Q junk. Don't know, it's never a bluff, felt they would have played a straight totally different, and is so hard to put them on back door flush. LARSON7	Small blind		500.00	500.00	29517.50
soulie	Big blind		1000.00	1500.00	33532.50
	Your hole cards	J Q
steelrod	Fold
emerson01	Fold
baker43	Fold
LARSON7	Raise		1500.00	3000.00	28017.50
soulie	Call		1000.00	4000.00	32532.50
Flop
		Q 9 K
LARSON7	Bet		2000.00	6000.00	26017.50
soulie	Call		2000.00	8000.00	30532.50
Turn
		Q
LARSON7	Bet		4000.00	12000.00	22017.50
soulie	Call		4000.00	16000.00	26532.50
River
		7
LARSON7	Bet		8000.00	24000.00	14017.50
soulie	Raise		16000.00	40000.00	10532.50
LARSON7	Call		8000.00	48000.00	6017.50

yb

2.5k on flop, 7k on turn, shove river

BorinLoner

I'm comfortable with the bet size on the flop. If we bet bigger, it's tough to be called by many worse hands. We can consider just checking here but it depends whether we think villain is going to be timid with second or third pair. Most of the time it's a bet because the villain's unlikely to just fold his Qx and 9x hands to one bet. That should lead us to checking a lot of turns, though.

We don't want to be checking on this particular turn, obviously. Now we want to build the pot so we can stack our opponent when he's holding Kx or weaker Qx hands. We do need to be betting a little bigger than half-pot now, in order to leave just less than a pot-sized bet back. There aren't many draws, but we can still get more value than half-pot from the few AsTs type hands the villain might have.


As played it's tough to value shove the river with more than a pot-sized bet behind. We're going to force the villain to sigh-fold most of the hands we beat. I think we should probably bet more than 8k though. We're very unlikely to be bluffing here but, if we were, we probably wouldn't be betting half-pot. If the villain is going to call us with his KT type hands he'll call 12k just as readily as 8k.

Then we face the raise and we're hating life. Getting 5:1 on the call, so we only have to beat 17% of his range but do we really? He's so unlikely to be bluffing so how many of his value hands do we beat? (EDIT: We also have to think, because this is an MTT and we can't rebuy, whether it's +EV enough to make the spot better than folding and preserving a playable stack. It may be +cEV but not +EV)

I guess we have to ask ourselves whether this villain peels the pre-flop min-raise with hands like Q2, Q3 and up to Q8. If not, then this is a fold. If he can be holding those hands, we have such good pot odds that we probably have to call. I doubt he raises the river with any Kx hands so if the only hand in his range that we beat is QT, we should fold.

I dunno. I don't think we beat enough of the villain's likely range for the min-raise on the river but I doubt I'd find a fold. That said, I think we shoud be betting enough on the turn to shove the river, as yb says. The villain is still going to be holding enough Kx hands for that to be the most profitable line, I think.

LARSON7

I agree YB and BL, need to bet more on the turn (and more on flop) 2.5 is ideal which sets it up 2 shove the river.

Normally i know i exactly where i am, when oppo min raises i'm hating life but sigh called.

With his move it's hard to think my hand is winning. It's pretty marginal.

Opponent had nut flush, they callled the flop with Ace high, back door flush draw. Betting bigger on is definatly the best option, i missed out on so much value. Just in this case i'd be unlucky they got there after making a bad call.