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Satellite ICM issue...

gazza127gazza127
edited November 2013 in The Poker Clinic
Right... So heres the situation.

I'm below average chip stack with 5bb but not far behind the average stack.  I'm currently sitting 8th/12 in a satellite to the primo semi.  10 seats are available.  So there are 4 people behind me on chips... however only 1 short stack and even that short stack is something like 7k.  Im not guarenteed a seat by any means just by folding my way into the seats however there is a possibility that could work.  The blinds are about to go through me and i'll be left with 3.5bb.

Obviously I need to take into account openers range.  Everyone has been playing pretty tight so his range are a lot of Ax hands with the blinds about to go through him but im well aware he wouldnt be doing this without either a pair of high connected cards or any Ace.

Is this a call ICM wise or should I just be trying to hold on/be the aggressor in a later hand?
DARK4NIGHT Small blind   1000.00 1000.00 17730.00
darryn1973 Big blind   2000.00 3000.00 5310.00
  Your hole cards
  • Q
  • A
     
Hampi2008 All-in   7905.00 10905.00 0.00
gazza127
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Comments

  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    My chip stack is 10400
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited November 2013
    Fold. Being the first in the pot is just so important.
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    Fold. Being the first in the pot is just so important.
    Posted by F_Ivanovic
    This.

    Round the bubble of something like that, we can shove pretty much ATC and expect to only get looked up by literally about 3% of hands max so just doing that once in an unopened pot probably gets us through. Even though we have very few BBs, in terms of chips we probably still have enough to put a big dent in most people's stacks and anyone who has a semi comfortable stack won't be calling off light at all.
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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited November 2013
    what ivanovic said   call n u be 60/40 ahead alot of the time  but u want to be the 1 that shoves easy to shove with marginal hands then easy to call gap theory n all that 
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    I thought as much.

    I tanked the call... which admittidely is an improvement on what id be doing normally in these spots.  Normally when I see AQ with 5bb I cant wait to get the chips in the middle but have learnt that satellites play a whole lot different.

    Buuuuut I still ended up calling.  Faced with 88 which held and I was left pondering over my play.  Just wanted to confirm that I should of folded like i first suspected.
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited November 2013
    Yeah, in a sat it's a no brainer if we're first into the pot, easy get it in. 

    Were the hands reversed, it's still a fold I think.

    TBH at this stage it doesn't really matter what you're holding, more a case of being first in.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    But its a call with AK right??
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  • Lambert180Lambert180
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    But its a call with AK right??
    Posted by gazza127
    This an inside joke with Harry or a serious question?

    If it's serious, then we should still fold AK.
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue... : This an inside joke with Harry or a serious question? If it's serious, then we should still fold AK.
    Posted by Lambert180
    Lol no inside joke.

    Are we really folding AKs here?

    This is precisely the reason why I hate satellites.
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  • F_IvanovicF_Ivanovic
    edited November 2013
    Yeah I fold AKs too. Calling range is probably JJ-AA.
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    But its a call with AK right??
    Posted by gazza127
    I folded AK in similar spot last night. A raise and a shove in front of me. I have a larger stack but i would lose a fair chunk of it. Near to bubble - in the bin. Thought I was very disciplined, for once.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90
    edited November 2013
    I think it actally depends alot. ICM dictates its a fold in most circumstances. I include AK in the same bracket. 

    There are certain factores which would mean i would call with AQ/Ak but with 2 tables or a bilbbe to be in play i think those facors are unlikely to ever show there face.

    This is the kind of thing that when you play sats alot you get to get a feel for. Its also the kind of mistake i see good solid mtt players that maybe don't play sats often make alot. Thats not a critism just experiance. 


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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited November 2013
    AKs is still probably a fold. Feels dirty I know.

    Essentially we need made premium hands to call in these spots, anything else is too vulnerable. 

    I might call it off if it was B on B, despite knowing I should still probably fold (would depend on stacks and how close to seats etc).
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    Sigh.

    No wonder i never sat into anything. :/

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  • IDONKCALLUIDONKCALLU
    edited November 2013
    it plays similar to a dym   and u have say 5k in chips and theres 4 left  next biggest stack has 4k and other 2 have 1k in chips etc blinds 200/400    the guy with 4k stack shoves   and u have ak no need to call is there as 1 of the people with 1 k stack will be knocked out soon     

    sats play similar 
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  • rancidrancid
    edited November 2013
    fwiw I snap

    someone should really spend sometime running this through an ICM calculator
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  • GELDYGELDY
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    fwiw I snap someone should really spend sometime running this through an ICM calculator
    Posted by rancid
    snap and 50 50 you get a seat
    fold and I reckon nearer to 70 30
    easy fold

    all depends on ranges of course but you'll be behind any pair and only in front of a few Ax hands
    readless that is.  If you know he shoves wide in this spot it changes but a lot of villains are still nitty at this stage
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  • hhyftrftdrhhyftrftdr
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue... : snap and 50 50 you get a seat fold and I reckon nearer to 70 30 easy fold all depends on ranges of course but you'll be behind any pair and only in front of a few Ax hands readless that is.  If you know he shoves wide in this spot it changes but a lot of villains are still nitty at this stage
    Posted by GELDY
    +1. That's the problem being 2nd into the pot, it's a guessing game unless we hold made premium hands.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue... : snap and 50 50 you get a seat fold and I reckon nearer to 70 30 easy fold all depends on ranges of course but you'll be behind any pair and only in front of a few Ax hands readless that is.  If you know he shoves wide in this spot it changes but a lot of villains are still nitty at this stage
    Posted by GELDY

    yep, we have a monster versus UTG shove w/4bigs :)

    think you will have to show me an icm calc to prove me wroung :)

    verus range if we believe our $ev is + compared to folding then we call - regardless






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  • unknown_usernameunknown_username
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    fwiw I snap someone should really spend sometime running this through an ICM calculator
    Posted by rancid
    Been done millions of times, as the amount of chips means nothing in this flat payout structure (ie finishing with 1 chip or 1000 chips get the same prize) calling it off with AK is pretty bad.  

    Dont get me wrong, hard to click that button sometimes, but 100% right thing to do,

    Its all about survival
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  • gazza127gazza127
    edited November 2013
    FWIW i folded a similar position today in a £6 satellite to the Speed BH... twice and got the seat.

    So I can see why folding is best here Rancid.

    I went on to finish 2nd in the BH too ;)

    Yes.  This is just a brag post.
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  • rancidrancid
    edited November 2013
    In Response to Re: Satellite ICM issue...:
    FWIW i folded a similar position today in a £6 satellite to the Speed BH... twice and got the seat. So I can see why folding is best here Rancid. I went on to finish 2nd in the BH too ;) Yes.  This is just a brag post.
    Posted by gazza127
    well you could say because vill has 4 bigs with the blinds going through him next hand - vill is forced to shove here with ATC unless they opt for no fe when <3 bigs.

    versus this range we call

    yeah yeah we can fold - good luck surviving !




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