QQ on a paired flushing board

davelufc

With him being pretty quiet we cannot really put him on A8 or 89s so we cannot give him credit for the 8 unless of course he has quads (very unlikely) and he would be checking the turn.  99-JJ is more than likely, weighted more towards 99,TT.  He could have AK flush but I think he's going to be shoving pf with that hand and would again be checking the turn.  All sets will also be checking the turn looking to c/r you.  So with this in mind, I'm shoving here.

davelufc

Oppo has been pretty quiet, limping a few pots and not getting out of line,

Was wondering what your thoughts were of the c/c flop and then the lead on the turn?

Am i ever good here?? Is this a flat, raise or fold?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
JusChick	Small blind		40.00	40.00	4125.00
Cleo15	Big blind		80.00	120.00	4320.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
RobbieLong	Raise		160.00	280.00	4620.00
davelufc	Raise		400.00	680.00	6160.00
pete2007	Fold
waybat66	Fold
JusChick	Fold
Cleo15	Fold
RobbieLong	Call		240.00	920.00	4380.00
Flop
		8 3 4
RobbieLong	Check
davelufc	Bet		460.00	1380.00	5700.00
RobbieLong	Call		460.00	1840.00	3920.00
Turn
		8
RobbieLong	Bet		920.00	2760.00	3000.00
davelufc ??

NColley

Shoving would be bad and achieves nothing...

I feel like we should prob just sigh fold now but in game I'm prob always just shrugging it off and calling twice (on non bad rivers)

Lambert180

^^^ This.

I'm never raising, it just doesn't achieve anything. As NColley said, it probably is a fold but I'd probably call turn and most rivers

DoubleAAA

Don't you guys think shoving here we get calls from 99-JJ plus we charge the 1 diamond hands ie AK, AQ, AJ, AT to draw?  Also if we're calling turn, does this not mean that we also have to call the river shove?

Just looking at combinations of hands we beat/lose:

99-JJ = 18 combinations

1 card flush draws = 15 combinations

total combinations we beat = 33 combinations
-------------------------------------------------------
Combinations that has us beat:

Made Flush = 9 combinations

Sets 33-44 = 6 combinations

total combinations has us beat = 15 combinations


With this in mind I think their is enough combination of hands that we beat that are still calling our shove.  Would you not say that the most popular line people take for a made flush and full house is c/c turn, donk river or c/r AI turn?

hhyftrftdr

Oh God he's back you're missing 8x hands from your calculations by the way.

Raising would be bad. As other said, probably a fold but think a lot will just call down, can't really fault either play.

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: QQ on a paired flushing board:

Oh God he's back you're missing 8x hands from your calculations by the way. Raising would be bad. As other said, probably a fold but think a lot will just call down, can't really fault either play.
Posted by hhyftrftdr

Yeah missed out 89, 78, A8 as from OP reads I don't think that this guy would be calling a 3bet OOP with either of those hands (could be wrong though) and with the 8 landing on the turn, it makes it even less likely that he's holding an 8.

Lambert180

Out of interest, what are your 15 x 1 card FD combos and what are your 9 combos of made flushes?

DoubleAAA

In Response to Re: QQ on a paired flushing board:

Out of interest, what are your 15 x 1 card FD combos and what are your 9 combos of made flushes?
Posted by Lambert180

A diamonds with K,Q,J,T and then the K diamonds with A
AK, AQ, AJ, AT, so that's the 15 FD combos and the combos of made flushes are AK,AQ,AJ,AT (hmm that's 4 combos my bad, I've been up since 3am )

My thinking is would he play a full house or quads this way donking into the turn? and what other realistic flushes could he have made aside from the 4 I have mentioned (okay we can add KQ,QJ) that he would be calling a 3bet with OOP?

It looks like the perfect 'scare' card to bluff (if this is the case then calling is optimal) or to bet and get value from 99-JJ hands as he knows that we will call with an A,K or Q of diamonds if we're holding Ax, Kx.

craigcu12

AAA
AKo with the Ad and  the AdQs are the only ones i would say are behind.
the 3bet preflop should reduce the Axo combos right down to mainly AKo and AQo because unless he type who is very loose he would probably fold Ajo and A10o as they only have 1 useful card since the other is likely to face a more dominant kicker or will be beat by an overpair AQ-AK or a pair JJ-AA.

if it was 99-JJ that he was holding what he doesn't know then is weather or not we hold the Ad or Kd and could well be see himself getting jammed.

the hand i think it's best to fold as he will still have the easy chance to bluff the river if he is behind

DoubleAAA

Seems a strange line to take with JJ-AA to flat us pf OOP, then c/c on that flop and then donk the turn.  I agree with you that the only flushes he can have is AK, AQ (AQ is unlikely).

So what range are we putting villian on that makes us fold?  Remember OP said villian has not got out of line and has limped a few pots where as in this particular hand he's m/r so I think we can rule out all 8x hands and have it weighted to PPs, AK, AQ.

Care to tell us what happened Dave?

THEROCK573

id put my left nutsack on it being 99, 1010, JJ

davelufc

Sorry there`s no result fellas, i folded as i really thought i was behind at this point and didn`t want to chase cards.

Few posters said it was a fold so i`m happy with the way i played it (i think!)

@ AAA, i`m not sure about the shove (**EDIT**) on the turn as you suggested, we all see hands differently , thanks for the input.

Cheers all.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
JusChick	Small blind		40.00	40.00	4125.00
Cleo15	Big blind		80.00	120.00	4320.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
RobbieLong	Raise		160.00	280.00	4620.00
davelufc	Raise		400.00	680.00	6160.00
pete2007	Fold
waybat66	Fold
JusChick	Fold
Cleo15	Fold
RobbieLong	Call		240.00	920.00	4380.00
Flop
		8 3 4
RobbieLong	Check
davelufc	Bet		460.00	1380.00	5700.00
RobbieLong	Call		460.00	1840.00	3920.00
Turn
		8
RobbieLong	Bet		920.00	2760.00	3000.00
davelufc	Fold
RobbieLong	Muck
RobbieLong	Win		1840.00		4840.00
RobbieLong	Return		920.00	0.00	5760.00

 

seppe

In Response to Re: QQ on a paired flushing board:

Sorry there`s no result fellas, i folded as i really thought i was behind at this point and didn`t want to chase cards. Few posters said it was a fold so i`m happy with the way i played it (i think!) @ AAA, i`m not sure about the shove pre as you suggested, we all see hands differently , thanks for the input. Cheers all. Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance JusChick Small blind   40.00 40.00 4125.00 Cleo15 Big blind   80.00 120.00 4320.00   Your hole cards Q Q       RobbieLong Raise   160.00 280.00 4620.00 davelufc Raise   400.00 680.00 6160.00 pete2007 Fold         waybat66 Fold         JusChick Fold         Cleo15 Fold         RobbieLong Call   240.00 920.00 4380.00 Flop     8 3 4       RobbieLong Check         davelufc Bet   460.00 1380.00 5700.00 RobbieLong Call   460.00 1840.00 3920.00 Turn     8       RobbieLong Bet   920.00 2760.00 3000.00 davelufc Fold         RobbieLong Muck         RobbieLong Win   1840.00   4840.00 RobbieLong Return   920.00 0.00 5760.00  
Posted by davelufc

 there was a genuine suggestion of shove pre? yikes lol

NColley

Ok, so given description of villain hes not peeling pre with AJo and ATo, too many reverse implied odds considering he opened utg and got 3bet by mp. He might decide to peel with all pairs that he opened but someone that limps alot probably isnt raising 33/44. 

Really the key bit of the decision is the frequency of the opponents limping. If hes limping almost everytime he wants to play a pot and suddenly hes open raising then we have to believe he has a stronger range when he raises.

DoubleAAA

@Dave Shove pre?  I never suggested to shove pre flop lol. I suggested to shove on the turn as this was what you were asking whether you should raise, call or fold on the turn.

@NCOLLEY I agree so we can also discount any 8x and any flush except for AdKd and AdQd although AQ is unlikely.  So now our villians range is looking more like 99-AA, AK flush.  Would you agree that villian would be raising 99-JJ pre flop?

On that basis it's only 2 combinations of flushes that beats us (AK, AQ) and 12 combinations AA KK that has us beat total 14 combinations vs 99-JJ 18 combinations plus nut flush draws AK, AQ 4 combinations  total 22 combinations.  It looks as though the only realistic hands we're only losing to is AK flush, KK, AA, so very little beats us. 

With this in mind I don't think we can ever fold here.

One very important thing to consider here is 'how does villian perceive our image'?  Have we been 3betting much? Are we raising often and cbetting a high %?

What line would you take if you were villian and holding Adkx flush draw or TT JJ here on the turn?  He's never giving us credit for 8x or a made flush.

Interesting hand really, because with our hand we should be loving that flop and really the turn does not change much except for his AK AQ flush got there and also becomes a 'scare' card he can try to rep.

F_Ivanovic

I'm not sure how shoving is 'pointless' - if we think we are a good deal ahead of villains range now then we want to shove to charge any of his hands drawing to a flush. However, I doubt that is going to be the case here so shoving seems bad. So that leaves us with calling or folding. We are getting great odds to call where we only need 25% equity in the hand to make the call profitable (assuming we often get to realise our equity and aren't always incorrectly folding it OTR - given we have position I think we can realise our equity often enough and potentially bluff villain off diamond rivers if he checks)

So, do we have 25% equity vs his range? Well, the bulk of villains range is probably going to be 99-AA. He may 4-bet pre some AA/KK which reduces a few of them combos. And he may not bet some of his pairs OTT that don't have a diamond. He could also have the occasional AdK hand and very rare 8x, maybe he has 7d7 as well. But vs that range we probably have anywhere between 20% and 45% equity. So based on that I think calling turn is fine; that being said folding can't be too big of a mistake here (especially if we were OOP) but given we're IP I definitely lean towards a call.

F_Ivanovic

@DoubleAAA: You have the right idea in looking at combinations (if you have pokerstove you can use that to type in combinations) - however, we can't always just count the number of combo's we are ahead/behind against because each hand combo has differing equity vs our hand. eg. vs 9d9x although we are ahead the 99s have 8 flush outs and 2 full house outs and still has 22.73% equity. Whereas if we are up against AA, we only have 4.5% equity.

DoubleAAA

Yes I see where you're coming from Ivan.  Do you think though that someone would take this line with KK, AA or AK flush? SUrely they're looking to c/r all in on turn unless of course they're holding the A diamonds.

Why do we think that we are behind to villians range?

I think one vital piece of info we're missing here is the image of 'Hero'.

Just ran it through pokerstove and i'm getting it that we're @ 53.5% Equity vs his 99-AA, AK, AQ and 27% vs KK, AA, AQ, AK

F_Ivanovic

I don't really know. Maybe they have AA/KK w/o a diamond and decided to donk turn because they don't want it to get checked through and potentially being outdrawn by a 4th diamond? What I do know is that given a best case scenario vs his range we only just have over 50% equity, which is just no way near enough equity to consider shoving turn. For one, villain would have to be bet/calling all the hands they bet (when in reality they probably fold some of the hands we are beating) - and as such will often just be crushed when they do call. Now, this doesn't make shoving bad per say if villain is bet/folding a lot but I doubt that will be the case here.

Worst case though and we have between 20 and 40% equity vs their betting range (with very few hands folding to a shove) - thus when we shove we are just putting in chips when are often going to be behind. 

hhyftrftdr

Not convinced we can just discount 8x from villains range. It wasn't the largest 3bet in the world, and many a villain might peel here with your 7 8s/ 8 9s type hands. Obvs check call top pair, as it's far from the nuts, then donk lead the turn with trips to get value from the premium pairs and also ensure it's not checked back and another diamond falls....

F_Ivanovic

We have a read though that villain has been pretty quiet and limping in a bit. So when he raises UTG he doesn't have many, if any 8's in his range to begin with. And if he does he might be folding most of them to a 3-bet. Agree that ordinarily though we shouldn't discount 8's from their range but here it does seem somewhat unlikely.

DoubleAAA

So looks as though calling turn is probably the best line and folding to a river shove to any diamond, A, K (17 cards 38.6% chance).  Calling a shove to any other river card.

Like I said earlier though, I feel a lot depends on how villian perceives our image as to how he could value his potential TT JJ hand.