can i get away?

golds95

SIGGY226	Small blind		10.00	10.00	890.00
golds95	Big blind		20.00	30.00	1080.00
	Your hole cards	K K
SIGGY226	Call		10.00	40.00	880.00
golds95	Raise		40.00	80.00	1040.00
SIGGY226	Call		40.00	120.00	840.00
Flop
		8 K 10
golds95	Bet		40.00	160.00	1000.00
SIGGY226	Call		40.00	200.00	800.00
Turn
		A
golds95	Bet		80.00	280.00	920.00
SIGGY226	Call		80.00	360.00	720.00
River
		7
golds95	Bet		220.00	580.00	700.00
SIGGY226	All-in		720.00	1300.00	0.00
golds95	Call		500.00	1800.00	200.00
SIGGY226	Show	J 9
golds95	Show	K K
SIGGY226	Win	Straight to the Jack	1800.00		1800.00

golds95

i have no reads on the player, never played him before and hu only just started

hhyftrftdr

Bet sizing probably wants looking at, but no I don't think you can ever really fold here.

golds95

agreed the turn was poor beting but i thought as he limped in i was hoping not to kill the action there 

Lambert180

You should probably go twice as big on the flop, twice as big on the turn and possible 1 more BB pre, but yeh you can't ever get away from it.

hhyftrftdr

It can be a fine line between killing your action and getting outdrawn. Had this flop fell K 8 3 rainbow, then there is nothing to worry about and can bet accordingly. But it's K 10 8 with two spades, this means potentially straight and flush draws that A) we can get value from but also protect our hand against with larger than normal bets.

Basically flop/board texture should determine how much to bet on every street. Even a flopped nuts is often only a turn card away from becoming 2nd best.

seppe

ye bet sizing is deffo on the low size, but neva folding in a million sundays just unlucky

BorinLoner

As others have said, we need to be betting a bit bigger on the flop and turn...


Just look at the pot and work out how you're going to get stacks in by the river. As you played this hand, the pot was only half of the size of the opponent's stack on the river and our bet is for just under 1/3 of that stack. We want his stack to be around the same size as the pot, preferably a little bit smaller.

That means we need to bet big enough on the flop and turn to get it in without needing him to raise.

F_Ivanovic

I mean I don't really need to say it since everyone else has... but bet sizing should be bigger! To determine our bet-sizing there's 3 main things we need to look at. No of opponents, board texture and the SPR (is it low enough to get our stacks in by the river)

We also need to think about what opponents range should look like and what our range should be like - if we want our range in a spot to be percieved as strong then we want to be betting big with both our bluffs and value hands to maximise value.

OK so no of opponents is just 1 here. Thus we are going to be betting more frequently and hence such should have a much wider range for both value and bluffs. Thus we can bet smaller than if we were in a multi-way pot. However, if we look at the board texture it is very wet. Although we have the nuts now there are a lot of turn cards that won't give us the nuts anymore. Also, our opponents range for limp/calling pre will often hit this flop - since less experienced players like to limp into pots with high middling cards. Things like QJ, JT, T9, KJ, J9, KT. Not to mention they like to limp with suited cards so he could also have a lot of flush draws. All of these hands are going to call a bet - whether you bet 40 or 100. If villain has a hand like 55 - yes, he may stay in for one small bet but he's not going to pay us any more money anyway unless he hits a set on the turn (something which will happen way too rarely)

Now the SPR (Stack-pot-ratio) here is around 7 (Pot is 120 and villain has 840. 840/120 = 7) - A low medium SPR. In geneal anything less than an SPR of 14 on the flop and we can just about get our stacks in post flop (in a HU situation) without betting more than pot on any street so 7 is easily possible. Here, if we bet 90 on the flop the pot will be 300. We can then bet around 200 on the turn and the pot is now 700 which leaves 550 behind OTR which is great to shove. We could possibly go a bit bigger on the turn even and make it 230. Which would give a pot of 760 and only 520 behind. By controlling the SPR with our bet sizes we can manipulate our opponent into making calls he might not otherwise make. 

You may have seen other people use a sizing of 1/3 pot but that would always be in a situation where the SPR is much smaller. If, for example the pot was 300 on the flop with only 600 behind then the SPR would only be 2. Here betting 1/3 pot would put the pot at 500 with 500 left OTT. If you think opponent is going to call you much, much wider by betting small (ie. any A high, any pair) then by all means we can make it a 3 street game when SPR is this small and bet something like 80 on the flop (pot is 460 with 540 behind), then 160 OTT (pot is 780 with 380 behind) then shove river. If opponents calling range is going to be pretty similar regardless of bet size then you can just keep it a 2 street pot (150 OTF, shove turn)

Anyway, enough rambling! As played it's tough. The 2 most likely straight draws (QJ and J9) came in and you'd think if villain had a strong hand like a set/2 pair that he would raise before the river (unless he hit the 2 pair/set with the 7) but even some of them hands like 78 probably don't shove river for value. But we are just far too strong to ever fold w/o any reads. 

Slipwater

Agreed, the bets should be bigger, but it doesn't matter what the bet size on the flop is - he is hanging around with his open-ended draw regardless. The turn is a different matter.

Lambert180

Course it matters lol, first of all want him to put as much money in as possible when behind and secondly, we don't know he has J9 at the time.

Slipwater

Yeah, I know, but what I mean is, irrespective of what the hero puts into the pot on the flop, the villain is sticking around. The poster is asking if he can get away from the hand. The answer is no. And the other chat about his sizing being wrong is kind of a side issue.

golds95

lesson learnt bet sizing was stupid back to the tables thanks