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0.5/1: busted flush draw, to bluff or not to bluff...

FerrisSmall blind £0.50£0.50£63.33BooniconBig blind £1.00£1.50£97.50tamcken07Sit out     Your hole cardsK8   GodzillionFold    villainCall £1.00£2.50£90.44offshootRaise £5.00£7.50£220.80FerrisFold    BooniconFold    villainCall £4.00£11.50£86.44Flop  J27   villainCheck    offshootBet £9.00£20.50£211.80villainCall £9.00£29.50£77.44Turn  6   villainBet £22.13£51.63£55.31offshootCall £22.13£73.76£189.67River  Q   villainCheckHero???  

Comments

  • edited December 2009
    fold turn? raise turn?

    on river villain has £55 left, pot is £73, optimal betting size? or give up?  


  • edited December 2009
    In Response to Re: 0.5/1: busted flush draw, to bluff or not to bluff...:
    fold turn? raise turn? on river villain has £55 left, pot is £73, optimal betting size? or give up?  
    Posted by offshoot
    I'd probably bet the turn because at this point you still have a chance to hit your flush, although i'd probably only bet half pot.
    As far as the river is concerned it would depend on whether I thought an all in would get rid of him. I only put him on top pair at best because my thinking would be if he's got better than that, he comes over the top of me on the turn. 
    If the answer is no this guy wont fold a jack then i check fold, if yes, i think i can get him off it, then i shove and pray and end up re-loading

    I think to be honest though if you bet the turn you have to fire again on the river, so i would need to be willing to do that before i fired on the turn, if i wasn't prepared to do that i would be done with the hand after my cont bet got called and i didn't hit the flush on the turn 
  • edited December 2009
    he led into me on the turn
  • edited December 2009
    Depends on what level the villain is on.

    Gotta think he ships his air in on the river, so I don't think you have any s/d value. The 8s is a reall bad card to have in your hand aswell as it takes away alot of his combo draws.

    His line is so f weird that there is like no hands he can have lol.

    Villain has no hand we win!

    Seriously though, the Qd is like a really gross card for his made hands, so i guess if we're going to ship anything...

    I'm so lost in this hand, idk our shoving range is so polarised to Q7+ and air so I guess yeah, it's villain dpendant.

    If its some terrible fish, i'm probably shipping here.

    EDIT: actually, i think his turn lead is probably indicitive of his ability, as it's probably like J9s, or 76s or a set or something and he's leading to "protect his hand". I think you actually get c/c'ed alot on this river and it's probably fine to check back.
  • edited December 2009
    Feels like you're up against a set but we need some more information.  Firstly how much has the villain got back?  Secondly do you have any history/table image of him/her?
  • edited December 2009
    In Response to Re: 0.5/1: busted flush draw, to bluff or not to bluff...:
    he led into me on the turn
    Posted by offshoot
    Sorry, missed that he bet into you. My normal move is to re-raise anyone who donk bets into me just on principle so on this I'd be tempted to shove him on the turn, especially as i still think i can make my flush at this point if he calls.
    I don't like your call on the turn, it screams weak to me, i'm either folding the turn or shoving him. 
  • edited December 2009
    Fold turn 100% after a donk bet out like this, he's never folding to an all in. Find a better spot.

  • edited December 2009
    dont think villain's range likes the river but still feel like they are check calling.

    i feel like their turn bet was setting up a river shove with a hand like A J- K J- J10- even small 2 pairs 67 etc

    probly just check behind, and at worst you get some info,

  • edited December 2009


    I don't think I would give up - I can never admit defeat after investing so much into a pot, id feel daft showing K high as well - Everythings telling me to bet here. Give him a decision.

    But after last night I dnt spose ur guna be listening to me, apologies for that was on small view for the first time or ida wrote it in the box. 

    Check and beat 4-5 spades?

    I've gotta get my money in and get him off, either on the turn or the river, either is fine - Probably better on the river, if you believe you have enough to make him fold, or rather if he has enough behind to fold  - can only decide that by seeing him play.

    DOHH

  • edited December 2009
    Id check behind personally. to me he has a weak jack, and from the way he played it theres no way you'll get him off it repping the q which u would think would be a scare card for his hand.

    If you do go for the bet, its got 2 be setting him in, anything below pot size he insta's. but jst from the hh above  with no previous, i check behind.
  • edited December 2009
    yeah hes leading the turn to protect his hand and is definitely not folding river after checking. He had 6 7
  • edited December 2009
    I dont play these levels (I play lower) but by looking at the hand he is limp calling pre-flop which is normally small-medium pockets ie 22 77, he is out of position and you raised pre so if he hits a set he is going to check to your for your c-bet,

    he then flat calls and then the second card comes which is a diamond, there are now two flush draws out there so to protect his set he bets pot on the turn into you,

    When he bets pot here I think its got to be a fold, you call and then the q of diamonds comes, which obviously hits  a flush that he was protecting against on the turn which is why i think he checked to you on the river.

    I think he is check calling here all day long, i also put him on a set because of the way the hand played pre-flop and then the board texture and bet sizes on the turn.


  • edited December 2009
    hi offshoot.

    yeh I agree with everyone, looks like they are check calling, and with a pot over £70 and villan with £55 behind it doesn't look like they are going away.  I guess you checked behind?
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