donk my open ended Strt flush draw and am over bet on the paired board?

craigcu12

this hand was from the 250 BH.

in the MTT itself this was his 7th hand since joining the table and so far he hadn't did a single limp most of them were actually folds and once he did a raise.

with it just being limped preflop I ruled out the premium hands and AK AQ.
what I had in mind that he was holding is either trips, the nut flush draw, a middle pair or a suited connector.
the chance of him having a FH does seem unlikely given his bet size.

Having been overbet should I just ship it all in or should I make the call knowing the chances are he will fold unless he has got trips FH or the nut flush draw the only hand I see calling which is behind is 54s?

was I right to donkbet in the first place or is check raise the better option long term.

hsimpson	Small blind		40.00	40.00	3805.00
craigcu12	Big blind		80.00	120.00	7467.50
	Your hole cards	9 8
dgl100	Fold
Jayner8	Call		80.00	200.00	4960.00
x	Call		80.00	280.00	3740.00
hsimpson	Fold
craigcu12	Check
Flop
		6 7 6
craigcu12	Bet		160.00	440.00	7307.50
Jayner8	Fold
x	Raise		1120.00	1560.00	2620.00
craigcu12

Diminuendo

I couldnt get my chips in fast enough mate

If you lose just load up another mtt

hhyftrftdr

Yeah, you have him well covered so go for it. I'm happy with the big raise as it means we can get it in when our equity is at its maximum.

Even if he's flopped massive (FH/quads), we can never be drawing dead in this spot.

BorinLoner

Firstly, this is not a donk-bet.

A donk-bet is, specifically; leading out when we are not the last aggressor. It's an important distinction.

Anyway, leading this flop is absolutely fine as there was no pre-flop raiser. We can't assume that anyone is actually going to bet if we check and we want to be semi-bluffing on this flop where our equity is at its highest. That's all fine, although we can probably get away with betting a bit smaller.


Then things get a bit weird with this massive raise. I actually think it's a fold.

Our equity is pretty poor against most of the hands we figure to get it in against here. Occasionally we'll be getting it in as a favourite against an A7 type hand or weaker draw. We'll also occasionally be getting it in as a 9% dog against a flopped house or quads. Against the rest of the villain's likely range for getting it in, we're not in great shape; Likely around 40%-45%.

Assuming we have no fold equity with a shove and that we don't want to just call this river and see a turn (which we definitely don't want to do), then our pot odds for getting it in on this flop are 46%. Essentially, with no fold equity, we're calling it off.


It's close and it's not a big mistake to get it in. If there are enough hands we're a favourite against that the villain can play this way (A7, 88, 45) then we can get it in profitably. If we think a villain limp-calling pre-flop, then taking off on the flop is unlikely to hold one of those marginal hands, then we're probably making a -EV play by getting it in here.


Obviously that all changes if we DO think we have fold equity with a 3-bet shove. In that case, we absolutely should get it in here.

craigcu12

Having seen the result of the hand i think the range of hands in these limped pots on the flop will include the premium pairs too. the amount of limped pots that i have seen include premium pairs or AK AQ is growing. i think i remember  one of the live show mention a similar thing themselves when analizing some MS hands.



This hand i guess the player himself was right that i was a fish for just make the call.
my thought was overall that if i were to jam he would be folding hands most days unless they are nut flush trip or FH. i also likely didn't think enough about the hand range of himself or me at the time either because i was on some cash tables on 888 poker.

hsimpson	Small blind		40.00	40.00	3805.00
craigcu12	Big blind		80.00	120.00	7467.50
	Your hole cards	9 8
dgl100	Fold
Jayner8	Call		80.00	200.00	4960.00
x	Call		80.00	280.00	3740.00
hsimpson	Fold
craigcu12	Check
Flop
		6 7 6
craigcu12	Bet		160.00	440.00	7307.50
Jayner8	Fold
x	Raise		1120.00	1560.00	2620.00
craigcu12	Call		960.00	2520.00	6347.50
Turn
		A
craigcu12	Check
x	Check
River
		A
craigcu12	Check
x	Check
craigcu12	Show	9 8
x	Show	J J
craigcu12	Win	Flush to the Ace	2520.00		8867.50

hhyftrftdr

Don't think you can ever call that flop raise Craig. R/R all in or fold.

I think most go for the former option!

LARSON7

Shooty in, get it all in!

Can't ask for a much better flop, nh!

CraigSG1

I agree. Cannot call. Fold or allin and with such a massive draw I think its a shove. As said we are never drawing dead and too often we have lots of outs.

craigcu12

IF I were holding the nut flush draw on this board is does that still have enough outs to jam or does the risk of trips and FH remove too much value?

Lambert180

If it was JUST the nut flush draw, so say you had AKss then no you deffo can't jam imo, you have to just sigh and fold cos your overs are likely to not be good that often, so you'd just be left with the 1in3 shot of making a flush. In this case a 5 or T will give you the best hand a lot more often... the only way some of your outs are gone is if he has TT as his OP. Obv if he has a house/quads, we're in big trouble but at least we have 2 outs to a straight flush with 89 lol, we're practically dead with AK short of running aces/kings.