A daily record of my all-in failures

Wizzlet

I have never played on site with so much variance when all in,  on all my other poker sites my sharkscope is smooth over hundreds of games but on Sky its all over the place. After dozens of bad beats this month I decided to record all my allins situations. Today I was all-in 5 times and lost every one, as usual. My hand is the one on the left.

KQo vs K8o & T9s  Lost

KJ vs 99  Lost

K9s vs J9o Lost

AQo vs 55 Lost

KK vs 88 Lost

Probability of losing them all = 0.008% or 1/118

hhyftrftdr

Ok.

unknown_username

In Response to A daily record of my all-in failures:

. . .  KQo vs K8o & T9s   Lost KJ vs 99   Lost K9s vs J9o Lost AQo vs 55 Lost KK vs 88 Lost Probability of losing them all = 0.008% or 1/118

1/118 is 0.8%, not 0.008%

Out of interest how did you come up with this overall figure? Two of these hands are 2 x overcards -v- underpair which is effectively a coin flip, one is overpair -v- underpair, one has three contesting hands (I looked it up at 45% win prob) and the last one is one overcard (72%);

50/100 x 50/100 x 82/100 x 45/100 x 72/100 = 664,200,000 / 10,000,000,000

Knock off five noughts from each side of the equation and you get 6,642 / 100,000; then divide both sides by 1,000.


I calc'd it out at 6.6% coincidence probability; around 15-1, not 117-1 as you thought?


15-1 is less than getting rivered out with two still still in the deck (which is 22-1), and I'm sure you've suffered your fair share of those?

I used this:  http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-tools/odds-calculator/texas-holdem

TeddyBloat

Doing this and focusing on how unlucky you are is going to tilt the life out of you.

Youre basically reinforcing your tilt, and this is going to help you pkay better,  how?

Youve had it all in with king high 3 times and ace high once and a premium pair once. Not sure you should be too shocked at getting them cracked.

jonjo75

In Response to A daily record of my all-in failures:

I have never played on site with so much variance when all in,  on all my other poker sites my sharkscope is smooth over hundreds of games but on Sky its all over the place. After dozens of bad beats this month I decided to record all my allins situations. Today I was all-in 5 times and lost every one, as usual. My hand is the one on the left. KQo vs K8o & T9s   Lost KJ vs 99   Lost K9s vs J9o Lost AQo vs 55 Lost KK vs 88 Lost Probability of losing them all = 0.008% or 1/118
Posted by Wizzlet

If you are going to put numbers then please explain how you came up with them because 98.47568645344% of the time they are made up or just wrong( like that one).

unknown_username

In Response to Re: A daily record of my all-in failures:

In Response to A daily record of my all-in failures : If you are going to put numbers then please explain how you came up with them because 98.47568645344% of the time they are made up or just wrong( like that one).
Posted by jonjo75

You're right - when I did the statistics module of a course I attended a billion years ago I was told that 98.47568645344% of statistics were made up on the spot (the number goes up if you're a politician or work for one of the main political parties in one of those think-tank outfits).

Wizzlet

Sorry I used pokerstove for the equity calculation figures, it gave me 0.53, 0.55, 0.28, 0.54, 0.19 odds for losing each one individually, so my 5 all ins on the night multiplied gives 0.00837, I forgot to multiply it by 100 to give the %age of 0.8.
If we roughly use fractions my odds of losing is 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/3 x 1/2 x 1/5 which is about 1/100.

My posting must have been heard by the poker gods 'cos I won all three of my all-ins tonight and won a little mtt.

churchy18

u never get any breaks hmmm..... Wizzlet	Small blind		500.00	500.00	23115.02
churchy18	Big blind		1000.00	1500.00	31384.98
	Your hole cards	A 2 8 7
Wizzlet	Raise		1500.00	3000.00	21615.02
churchy18	Raise		5000.00	8000.00	26384.98
Wizzlet	Raise		16000.00	24000.00	5615.02
churchy18	Raise		24000.00	48000.00	2384.98
Wizzlet	All-in		5615.02	53615.02	0.00
churchy18	Unmatched bet		6384.98	47230.04	8769.96
Wizzlet	Show	A 8 10 4
churchy18	Show	A 2 8 7
Flop
		2 J 7
Turn
		5
River
		9
Wizzlet	Win high	Straight to the Jack	23615.02		23615.02
Wizzlet	Win low	7-low	23615.02		47230.04

Wizzlet

Yes awesome suckout when heads up. Unlucky churchy!
Been running better but 13 left with 10 paid in NLHE MTT the other night, 2 all in short stacks b4 me. I have KK, I shove too, big stack in BB calls with 99. Massive pot. Hands are QQ, T9s my KK and 99.  Obv case9 comes on river

Wizzlet

Not my bad beat but in freeroll last week, player flops full house with Q3 (QQ3) calls all in by a player with 66. Turn 6, river 6 ouch!!