Eurrgghhh

gazza127

Opponent will call for draws... and will call three bets pre with suited connectors and suited aces as well as PP.

As you can see i've got quite a big stack so people have been less inclined to believe me when I bet.  I have shown a triple barrell bluff vs another opponent about an hour earlier, which this villain did see, so he's quite capable thinking that I have nothing here....

River bet size is polarised.  I dont think he'd be betting this big with a Q or a J... so think its nuts or air.  Obviously I check for pot control on the river.  I dont want to get C/R and shoved off my hand by a different missed draw.

I also check to keep in all his bluffs as he folds out most hands I beat if i bet again here.  I just cant work out if hes bluffing here enough to make this a +ev call?

Can anyone solve this with maths?

Think i've seen him bluff once... maybe twice in about 3 hours prior?  All look good though?

russia	Small blind		£0.25	£0.25	£102.06
gazza127	Big blind		£0.50	£0.75	£290.35
	Your hole cards	A Q
badtaste01	Fold
NooGooood	Fold
XX	Raise		£1.50	£2.25	£154.08
kcuddedoo	Fold
russia	Fold
gazza127	Raise		£4.50	£6.75	£285.85
XX	Call		£3.50	£10.25	£150.58
Flop
		2 Q J
gazza127	Bet		£7.00	£17.25	£278.85
XX	Call		£7.00	£24.25	£143.58
Turn
		3
gazza127	Bet		£16.50	£40.75	£262.35
XX	Call		£16.50	£57.25	£127.08
River
		6
gazza127	Check
XX	Bet		£41.50	£98.75	£85.58
gazza127	??

crassh

There is no way this is a bluff enough of the time for it to be protitable.  I'm not convinced he has the nuts but has you beat 80%+ of the time and there will be an occasional split in there.

F_Ivanovic

I would bet/fold. Not many players will bluff-raise over a river bet (unless it looks weak) and we can get value from a fair amount of worse hands I imagine. As played we beat KT and T9 but lose to all his flush draws. Probably has a fair more flush draws than KT and T9 but might also be bluffing with some weak hand turned into a bluff. Seems pretty close but I think folding here is fine.

Lambert180

Yeah check/folding is probably the right decision as played, although I do like the bet/fold as Ivan suggested.

gazza127

In Response to Re: Eurrgghhh:

Yeah check/folding is probably the right decision as played, although I do like the bet/fold as Ivan suggested.
Posted by Lambert180

What about... you know, hypothetically speaking...check/calling?

Something which I may or may not have done.  (I definitely did).

rancid

you could

c/c
b/f
c/r

depends so much on history


b/f is good

if you c/c vill gotta have air/prs into bluffs so much to make it worthwhile

BorinLoner

If the flush draw had missed, we could check-call to let him bluff those missed draws. When the flush draw hits, we don't want to check and let him bet his bigger made hands and check back his weaker ones.

As rancid has said, we need the villain to be holding air/missed straight draws enough to make this call. That's unlikely. It's also very unlikely that the villain is calling down with a weaker pair only to turn it into a bluff here... it's possible but unlikely.

So bet-fold to be called by his weaker Qx or bluff-catcher hands. If we check, it's because we don't think we beat the majority of his range at this point. If we don't beat the majority of his range, then the only hands we do beat in his betting range are the missed straight draws. There are far fewer of those than made flushes, two-pair or sets in his betting range.

Bet-fold or check-fold. Depends a lot on what we think the villain's 3-bet calling range is pre-flop and how often we think he's bluff-catching against us. Our image probably needs to be very 'laggy' to bet-fold.