Omaha now what on the turn do i have to go with it?

IDONKCALLU

barry1935Small blind £0.05£0.05£30.91IDONKCALLUBig blind £0.10£0.15£14.50 Your hole cardsK8JK   MeenyCall £0.10£0.25£6.29daggers747Raise £0.30£0.55£23.98cuzza64Fold    BCOZICANFold    barry1935Call £0.25£0.80£30.66IDONKCALLUCall £0.20£1.00£14.30MeenyCall £0.20£1.20£6.09Flop  K2Q   barry1935Bet £1.20£2.40£29.46IDONKCALLURaise £3.20£5.60£11.10MeenyFold    daggers747Call £3.20£8.80£20.78barry1935Call £2.00£10.80£27.46Turn  10   barry1935Bet £5.40£16.20£22.06

Lambert180

Don't know that much about PLO but I can't see how we can possibly not go with it.

Top set so are drawing to quads and lots of nut FHs if he has AJxx or J9xx (the only TWO possible hand we're losing to atm), we're also open ended to make the nut straight/2nd nut straight, and we'll also probably already have the best hand quite often.

Ship ittttttt

F_Ivanovic

yeah this is an easy ship AJ and J9 are the least likely of the draws that someone could have had on the flop. But if we are up against one of these hands we still have plenty of outs.

IDONKCALLU

did ship = fail

F_Ivanovic

Just quickly checked the equity here. We need 33.6% to shove and have 30.56% against a range of AJ and J9. So if we are certain opponent has straight we should just call turn. But if they have one worse value hand/draw we are just in too good a shape to just flat the turn.

Talon

  Well looking at this as played. Calling oop, donk lead and call then another donk lead. Gives us only 3 sensible holding for the opponent.

 AJxx with the flush draw
 AJTx with or without the fd
 JT9x with or without the fd.

 Think it is safe to assume that you are behind on that turn. So we need to loook now at outs and see how many you have. The 9 for the straight is a bit weak here so best to ignore. That leaves a maximum of 2 A's 1 K  3 Q's 3 T's and 3 2's. 12 outs maximum and possibly 2 of them are for the split only.

 This gives you about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the pot from here. Cant see the complete stack so will go with what i can. If you ship it in you will be putting in about £11 to win a pot that will be about £33. You are only getting 2 to 1 not the 3 to 1 you need. So as stated this is not a ship it time because you will not be getting the right odds for 10 probable nut cards and 2 split ones.

  But all of this changes if we are able to open his range up. Is he capable of doing this with a hand like 2 pair and the nfd? If we can put that in his range then we can move it more towards the shove. So it all boils down to what range you can put him on. Against the made hand the odds say fold but against the draws it is a definite shove.

  Wish i could give a better answer but without knowing the player and his ranges it is hard to be clearer than this.

F_Ivanovic

Talon your equities are slightly off. I looked it up on ProPokerTools and we have 30.56% vs exclusively AJ and J9 and 27.11% vs just AJ. 30.56% isn't far off the 3 to 1 we need which needs villain only needs 1 worse hand to make a profitable shove. 

Also we should never fold to the turn bet anyway since we have at worst 27.11% equity and yet only need 25% to JUST call the turn bet. The problem with this though can be making incorrect folds on the river which is why we need to be pretty certain that villain only ever has a straight for just calling to be the correct play.